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AGIR & DEMWEL Seminar 12-14 June, 2003 ETLA, Helsinki Bio-Demographic Aspects of Aging

AGIR & DEMWEL Seminar 12-14 June, 2003 ETLA, Helsinki Bio-Demographic Aspects of Aging. Population forecast.

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AGIR & DEMWEL Seminar 12-14 June, 2003 ETLA, Helsinki Bio-Demographic Aspects of Aging

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  1. AGIR & DEMWEL Seminar 12-14 June, 2003 ETLA, Helsinki Bio-Demographic Aspects of Aging ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  2. Population forecast • Following figure shows alternative population prospect of Statistics Finland estimations with annual net effect of 5000 and 10,000 from migration and Alho’s figures with annual net effect of 4,000 from migration initially (and at declining rate). Statistics Finland estimate also follow closely UN key assumption leading first to an initial decrease in fertility subsequent rise to 1.9 (see appendix A). • Net gain of 10,000 from migration per year change population forecast essentially. Similarly to Belgium the peak population size 5.6 million achieved by 2030 would not substantially change before 2050. It is also seen that the less optimistic population forecast than that used by Statistics Finland, which assumes net gain from migration to stay 5,000 per year, yield 250,000 lower population in 2050 ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  3. Dependency Ratios • In 1975, the old age dependency ratio (ODR) equaled 32.4. For every elderly person in the country, there were 3 active people to support the older person. ODR shifts to 54.3 in 2000. Old age dependency ratio is sharply rising between 2000 and 2030 up to 104. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  4. Life Expectancy, Modal duration and Life Endurance, 1975-2001 • Between 1975 and 2001 life expectancy has increased 6 years at birth to 78.2, 3.5 years at age 65 to 86.3 and 1.5 years to 88.31 at age 80. Life expectancy of women at birth is close to the average in EU countries, while life expectancy of men at birth is the second lowest in EU countries. • Modal duration shows that greatest number of deaths occur now 3-4 years later than in 1975 at age 82 for men and 86 for women. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  5. Births • The number of births has been around 56,000 in recent years, i.e. 10,000 less than ten years ago. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  6. Family Size: Age of Household Head in Three Person Family • The average size of families from 3.1 persons in 1987 to 2.9 in 1996. Family structure changed with single parent households becoming more common and others having more children. • Baby boomers: Families with three persons for 25-34 years old in 1972-1981 and for 35-44 years old in 1984-1993. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  7. Size of Age Cohorts • If the only source of increase in dependency ratio where the ageing of baby boom generation, the dependency ratio would recover by 2050 when the three big age cohorts born in 1945-59 exist no longer. However, lower fertility and longer life expectancies imply that the high dependency ratio of 39 percent achieved in 2020 will continue to stay at high level and even increase up to 42 percent by 2050. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  8. Employment Rates for Men by Age Groups (in 2001 63.6 of women and 69.7 of men aged 15-74 participate in labour force) • In Finland employment rates are low for individuals 55 years or over for both genders. There has been some recovery in employment rates of older workers since 1998 so that in 2000 the average employment rate is 42 percent for 55-64 years old, while the EU average is 38 percent (due to women participaton). • In men labour force participation decreased substantially already before 1990s (agriculture) ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  9. Employment Rates for Women by Age Groups • Women increased their participation into labour force participation at 25-59 years of age between 1970 and 1980: one of the highest in OECD • Stayed relatively the same ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  10. Size of Age Cohorts • If the only source of increase in dependency ratio where the ageing of baby boom generation, the dependency ratio would recover by 2050 when the three big age cohorts born in 1945-59 exist no longer. However, lower fertility and longer life expectancies imply that the high dependency ratio of 39 percent achieved in 2020 will continue to stay at high level and even increase up to 42 percent by 2050. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  11. Age of Mother at First Child • The average age of the mother when having first child has increased from 24.9 to 27.3 years between 1978 and 2000 • No more evident in 1998-2000: less glamorous labour market ? ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  12. AGIR & DEMWEL Seminar 12-14 June, 2003 ETLA, Helsinki Use of Health Care and Nursing by the Elderly in Finland ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  13. Patient Days for Patients Discharged from Inpatient Care in 1920-1992 per Inhabitants • Patient days have increased over the longer period of time since 1920s. • Trend has changed in 1980s ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  14. Average Hospital Stay of Patients Discharged from Inpatient Care in 1920-1992 • The average stay in ordinary hospital has decreased over the entire period. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  15. Patients per Individuals in Age Cohort • The number of patients per age cohort have moderately increased over the period for age groups below 65 years and more strongly increased for the older age cohorts 65-74 years and 75 years and over ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  16. Hospital Days per Individuals in Age Cohort • Decrease in the number of hospital days since 1980 for all and since 1975 for working age group 15-64 (figures for 65-74 years old are 30% and for 74- 10% of actual because of the scale of x-axis). The biggest decline took place for the 65-74 age group. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  17. Length of Hospital Stay of Discharged for Men • The biggest change has taken place in the average length of stay in hospital and not in the number patients • The length of stay in general hospitals decreased from 21.9 days in 1920 to 12.5 days in 1960 ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  18. Length of Hospital Stay of Discharged for Women • Men of 15-64 years now stay in hospital 9 days instead of 24 days and women 7 days instead of 18 days like in the beginning 1980s • In 1969 men 75 years or over stayed on average 30 days and respectively women 50 days in hospital. The numbers have halved to 18-22 days by 2001. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  19. Resources in Elderly Care in Nordic Countries • Care for the elderly currently accounts for about one per cent of GDP and absorbs an increasing share of resources in coming years. In table 3 it was readily apparent that persons 75 years or older are taking increasing share of hospital care. Now nearly one fifth of individuals 75 years or over are hospitalised. • The number of elderly per worker in institutions is twice as high as in other Nordic countries. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  20. Inhabitants hospitalised in last 5 months (%) by age and sex, in 1987 and 1996 • The demand for institutional care has nearly doubled between 1995 and 2001 and the major change occurred in 2001 • One half of all institutional care is allocated to individuals with over 80 years of age. • Women demand 65% of all institutional care, ranging to 73% among the individuals over 80 years of age. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  21. Home Care by Age Groups All and 50 years or over • The degree of increase in home care is much more modest around 10 percent between 1995 and 2001. • Half of this has taken place among the oldest age cohorts. 46% of services are allocated to individuals 80 years or over. • 67 percent of services are allocated to women. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  22. Total Number of Outpatient Visits to a Doctor per Inhabitant by Age and Sex, 1987 and 1996 • Similarly to other OECD countries, pharmaceutical costs increase strongly. • Women, particularly those of working age, use doctor services more than men do. • Men over 75 the visits increased substantially, in 1996 even more often than women (Second World War generation). ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

  23. Life Expectancy, Modal duration and Life Endurance, 1975-2001 • Between 1975 and 2001 life expectancy has increased 6 years at birth to 78.2, 3.5 years at age 65 to 86.3 and 1.5 years to 88.31 at age 80. Life expectancy of women at birth is close to the average in EU countries, while life expectancy of men at birth is the second lowest in EU countries. • Modal duration shows that greatest number of deaths occur now 3-4 years later than in 1975 at age 82 for men and 86 for women. ETLA Piekkola & Harmoinen

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