Module 5: Integrated analysis of environmental trends and policies

1. Module 5: Integrated analysis of environmental trends and policies

2. Sessions at a Glance Session 1: Introduction Session 2: Spatial and Thematic Boundaries Session 3: An Analytic Framework for IEA Session 4: Step 1. What is happening to the Environment and Why? Session 5: Step 2. What are the consequences for the environment and humanity? Session 6: Step 3. What is being done and how effective is it?

3. Steps of Integrated Environmental Assessment

4. Steps 1, 2 and 3 • Step 1: What is happening to the environment and why? • Compile and analyzestatus and trendsof the environment,including pressures and driving forces • Step 2: What are the consequences for the environment and humanity? • Analyzing impacts of environmental change on ecosystem services and human well-being • Step 3: What is being done and how effective is it? • Identify policies that impact the environment, policy gaps and opportunities for policy innovation

5. Discussion: Reflecting on the Steps of IEA(15 minutes) • In small groups, discuss whether the questions proposed reflect your understanding of what should be covered by SOE and policy analysis? If they do not, how would you rephrase them? • In your opinion, given your experiences to date, is it more advantageous to treat SoE assessment and policy analysis in a combined way or separately in an IEA report? Why?

6. Sessions at a Glance Session 1: Introduction Session 2: Spatial and Thematic Boundaries Session 3: An Analytic Framework for IEA Session 4: Step 1. What is Happening to the Environment and Why? Session 5: Step 2. What are the Consequences for the Environment and Humanity? Session 6: Step 3. What is Being Done and How Effective is it?

7. Setting Spatial BoundariesResource Unit versus Jurisdictional

8. Thematic versus Sectoral Approaches • Thematic approach: • A more traditional approach; i.e., water, air • Challenge is that different themes can be impacted by the same policies or sectors • Sectoral approach: • i.e., transportation, agriculture, energy • Challenge is that one environmental theme can be impacted by multiple sectors

9. Discussion: A Context for IEA • With your neighbour, discuss the contexts of previous reporting processes you are aware of. • Having considered the contexts of previous reporting processes, what is the best context for a new reporting system in your country—ecosystem or jurisdictional focus, thematic or sectoral approach? • How might a new IEA be designed to minimize the “cutting the cake dilemma”? Discuss issues related to analysis of transboundary environmental problems.

10. Sessions At a Glance Session 1: Introduction Session 2: Spatial and Thematic Boundaries Session 3: An Analytic Framework for IEA Session 4: Step 1. What is Happening to the Environment and Why? Session 5: Step 2. What are the Consequences for the Environment and Humanity? Session 6: Step 3. What is Being Done and How Effective is it?

11. Benefits of Using an Analytic Framework • helps position the environment in relation to issues of (sustainable) development; • helps establish cause-effect relationships; • becomes a communication tool for engaging a multisectorial and multidisciplinary group; • provides a roadmap and systematic checklist for the report-writer.

12. Types of Frameworks • DPSIR (Driver – Pressure – State – Impact – Response) • Vulnerability • Ecosystem Well-being • Capital-based • Sectorial • Issue-based

13. Discussion: Frameworks(20 minutes) • With your neighbour, discuss what, if any conceptual framework you have had the opportunity to use in your work (10 minutes) • Identify and explain the framework to your colleague; draw a diagram if applicable. • What was your experience with the framework? • When reconvening in plenary, prepare to comment on frameworks in your list that seem to be new to others (20 minutes).

14. DPSIR Analytical Framework for Integrated Environmental Assessment HUMAN SOCIETY DRIVERS Indirect influence through human development PRESSURES Sectors Human influences Natural processes IMPACTS Human well-being Economic, Social Goods & Services Direct influence through human interventions RESPONSES Mitigation and adaptation Ecosystem Services STATE AND TRENDS Water, land, atmosphere, biodiversity ENVIRONMENT Step 1 What is happening to the environment and why? Step 2 What are the consequences for the environment and humanity? Step 3 What is being done and how effective is it?

15. Air Quality Water Quality Soil Quality Understanding Inter-linkages

16. Example – Telling an Integrated Story HUMAN SOCIETY DRIVERS Population growth PRESSURES Agriculture Sewage Discharge Erosion IMPACTS well-being - Access to clean water - Nourishment - health and relations Services - Fresh water - Food - Recreation Direct influence through human interventions RESPONSES N and P regulation Infrastructure Bottle water STATE AND TRENDS River water quality–declining ENVIRONMENT Step 1 What is happening to the environment and why? Step 2 What are the consequences for the environment and humanity? Step 3 What is being done and how effective is it?

17. Homework (or Exercise) Using the template sheet provided, do the following: • Select one specific environmental issue that can be classified as an environmental state. How has this state changed over time?; • Identify a societal pressure directly affecting the environmental state. What natural disturbances might be causing your environmental state to change?; • Identify general societal drivers with broad influence on the pressure and environmental state; • Given the change in your environmental state, what are some of the key impacts (ecosystem services and on human well-being); and • What policy responses were directed at restoring or enhancing the environment (e.g., had influence on the environmental state, pressures and driving forces). What policy responses helped communities and businesses to adapt to the environmental impacts?

18. HUMAN SOCIETY DRIVERS Step 1 PRESSURES IMPACTS Step 2 Step 1 Well-being: Direct influence through human interventions Step 3 RESPONSES Services: Natural processes: STATE TRENDS and Step 1 ENVIRONMENT Step 1 What is happening to the environment and why? Step 2 What are the consequences for the environment and humanity? Step 3 What is being done and how effective is it?

19. C A N A D A Lake Winnipeg Case study #1: Water Quality Issues and Policies in the Red River Basin and Lake Winnipeg Winnipeg Manitoba Saskatchewan Red River and Basin U N I T E D S T A T E S

20. Formed RRB around 10,000 years ago • 846,000 sq. km • 1,120 km long • 1,120 km wide • Lake Winnipeg: 10th largest lake in the world

21. Characteristics Red River Basin • Key river system feeding into Lake Winnipeg • Bottom of a former lake • Shaped like bowl • 129,000km2 • 20% in Canada • Extensive agriculture (cereal and feed crop)

22. Drought Risk in Major Agricultural Zone Source:IWMI

23. Moisture Deficit in Canadian Prairies 1961–1990 Source: Nyirfa and Harron 2001

24. Moisture Deficit Canadian Prairies 2040–2069(CGCM1 scenario) Source: Nyirfa and Harron 2001

25. Case Example • This case example of water quality issues in the Red River Basin and Lake Winnipeg will be referred to throughout this workshop to illustrated key concepts

26. References • Jones, G. and N. Armstrong. (2001) Long-Term Trends in Total Nitrogen and Total Phosphorous Concentrations in Manitoba Streams. Manitoba Conservation Report No. 2001-07. Winnipeg, MB: Water Quality Management Section, Water Branch, Manitoba Conservation. • Nyirfa, W. and Harron, W. R. (2001). Assessment of Climate Change on the Agricultural Resources of the Canadian Prairies, Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration, Regina, 2001. • Salki, A. (2002) Climate Change and Lake Winnipeg. Winnipeg, MB: Freshwater Institute. • Venema, H.D. (2005) From Cumulative Threats to Integrated Responses: A Review of Ag-Water Policy Issues in Prairie Canada. Prepared for the OECD Workshop on Agriculture and Water: Sustainability, Markets and Policies, 14-18, 2005 Adelaide, Australia. Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development. • Oborne, B. (2005) Manitoba Provincial Case Study. Analysis of Water Strategies for the Prairie Watershed Region. Prepared as input for the Prairie Water Symposium. Winnipeg: IISD. • Swanson, D., S. Barg, H. Venema and B. Oborne (2005) Prairie Water Strategies. Innovations and Challenges in Strategic and Coordinated Action at the Provincial Level. Prepared for the Prairie Water Policy Symposium. Winnipeg: IISD.

27. Case Study #2 to Illustrate DPSIR Framework:Solid Waste Management in Bahrain(A case under development) Courtesy of: Prof. Ibrahim Abdel Gelil Director, Environmental Management program Arabian Gulf University Manama, Bahrain

28. Solid Waste Management in Bahrain:A key issue for policy action • Daily generation of municipal solid waste in Bahrain is estimated to be around 1,000 ton per capita per annum. • The per capita waste generation has been growing at a rate of 14 per cent per annum. • The country suffers from limited land area. • Proximity of the only existing landfill (in Askar) to urban expansion. • The only existing landfill lacks sound engineering structure and management. • Lack of recycling program to reduce the amount of land-filled wastes.

29. What is Happening to the Environment? What is the Problem? • Growing volume of solid waste • Single option for solid waste disposal—land filling • Limited land area for waste disposal by land filling • Environmental degradation and public health hazards

30. DPSIR Analysis

31. What is Being Done? The Societal Actions Taken • Two private companies were contracted to provide collection, street sweeping and transportation of MSW. • A request for proposals from the private sector was issued by the Government to: • Develop a new waste management system, and • Upgrade the existing landfill.

32. Objectives for Policy Solutions • Protection of the environment and public health, through: • Specific goals such as: Waste Minimization • Should be time-bound and measurable • Reduce the amount of waste reaches to the landfill by 25 per cent by year 2010, or • Increase the percentage of recycling to 40 per cent by year 2010

33. Alternative Policy Options (examples) • Waste Minimization: • Public education campaigns • Promote Recycling (Provide economic incentives to recycling industries) • Develop standards for packaging materials. • Promote separation at source. • Assess the feasibility of other treatment technologies such as Waste-to-Energy or Composting.

34. Who are the Stakeholders? The “Policy Network” • Who are they in this case? • State • The five Governorates; • The legislative councils; and • The commission for the protection of marine resources, environment and wildlife. • Market • The private SWM contractors; • The Recycling Industries; • The packaging industries; and • The financial sector. • Citizen • The NGOs; and • The public.

35. How Effective is it? • We need policy analysis studies to answer this question. • It is too early to do so as the process is still ongoing.

36. Criteria for Assessment Based on the problem definition, the contexts, the stakeholders and the policy objectives, assessment evaluation criteria must be established

37. Examples of Evaluation Criteria • Economic Efficiency “in terms of costs and benefits” • Capacity “does the environmental agency have the resources to implement the proposed policy, in terms of staff, skills, money, ...etc” • Equity “Who suffers? and who benefits?”

38. Sessions At a Glance Session 1: Introduction Session 2: Spatial and Thematic Boundaries Session 3: An Analytic Framework for IEA Session 4: Step 1. What is happening to the Environment and Why? Session 5: Step 2. What are the consequences for the environment and humanity? Session 6: Step 3. What is being done and how effective is it?

39. Step 1 Step 1 Step 1 Step 1: What is Happening to the Environment and Why? HUMAN SOCIETY DRIVERS Indirect influence through human development PRESSURES Sectors Human influences Natural processes IMPACTS Human well-being Economic, Social Goods & Services Direct influence through human interventions RESPONSES Mitigation and adaptation Ecosystem Services STATE AND TRENDS Water, land, atmosphere, biodiversity ENVIRONMENT Step 1 What is happening to the environment and why? Step 2 What are the consequences for the environment and humanity? Step 3 What is being done and how effective is it?

40. STEP 1:What is Happening to the Environment and Why? • What are priority environmental issues and concerns? • What is the specific STATE of the environment of most concern for each issue and what changes in that state have occurred? • What PRESSURES and DRIVERS are causing environmental change? • What INDICATORS are appropriate and necessary to characterize these states, pressures and driving forces?

41. Step 1 Case ExampleStep 1A: What are the Priority Issues and Concerns? HUMAN SOCIETY DRIVERS Indirect influence through human development PRESSURES Sectors Human influences Natural processes IMPACTS Human well-being Economic, Social Goods & Services Direct influence through human interventions RESPONSES Mitigation and adaptation Ecosystem Services STATE and TRENDS Water quality of the Red River and Lake Winnipeg (Nutrient concentrations) ENVIRONMENT Step 1 What is happening to the environment and why? Step 2 What are the consequences for the environment and humanity? Step 3 What is being done and how effective is it?

42. Examples of Themes

43. Exercise: Step 1A - Identifying and Organizing Themes (20 minutes) • In groups of five, • Discuss and note key specific environmental issues related to the state of the environment in your country. • Assign specific environmental issues to general categories. • How many distinctly different themes did your group identify? • How many specific state-of-the-environment issues? • Can some of the specific issues under a given theme be expressed as a single issue?

44. PRIORITY ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES IN:………………………………..

45. Exercise – Part B: Identifying and Organizing Themes (30 minutes) In plenary, carry out the following tasks: • Combine the work of all groups into one table (e.g., using flip charts or overheads). • Determine the general themes for the overall group; organize all specific state-of-the-environment issues according to these themes. • Combine related specific issues as appropriate

46. Step 1A: Prioritizing Issues • Why is prioritization necessary? • Who should decide what is a priority and what is not? • Based on what criteria should priorities be established? • What prioritization process could be used?

47. Challenges to Prioritizing • Under what criteria can an issue be considered a priority (e.g., high cost, significant risk, public awareness, political attention, place in issue cycle [ref. Module 3])? • What are the priorities as listed in official policy statements? • Whose priorities are represented, and is that a legitimate representation? • How many issues can be included in a national GEO report? • What process will you use to agree upon priority issues?

48. Techniques for Prioritizing • Traditional voting • Nominal group methods • Consensus decision making

49. Step 1B: What is the Specific STATE-of-the-environment Concern for Each Priority Environmental Issue? • It is important to be more specific with regard to each priority environmental issue. • This will make it much easier to identify what is happening to the environment and why. • For example, the issue of water quality can be more specifically attributed to a spatial context, such as a river or lake.

50. Exercise: Steps 1A & 1B - Prioritizing and Identifying Specific Environmental States of Concern In your groups of five, • Using the themes and issues identified in the previous exercise, rank the priority of each issue using a three-point scale (low, medium and high). • Compile the results in plenary and establish a priority ranking of the issues (i.e., how many high, low and medium rankings each received). • Complete the following worksheet for your country.