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Development of a Tool for Alerting Large Dst Variations

This presentation discusses a novel warning tool developed by the Space Research Group at Universidad de Alcalá, designed to alert on significant variations in the Dst index, a measure of geomagnetic activity. The tool utilizes Bz magnetic field data to predict large Dst changes, analyzing data from 1995 to 2005 with a 5-minute resolution. The results demonstrate a strong correlation between Dst variations and Bz fluctuations, emphasizing the importance of understanding these relationships for more accurate space weather forecasting.

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Development of a Tool for Alerting Large Dst Variations

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  1. A tool for alerting of large Dst variations C. Cid, E. Saiz and Y. Cerrato Space Research Group-Science, Universidad de Alcala, Spain

  2. ASTROCAM

  3. Theeventsforwarning Dst EVENT DDst EVENT ESWW5, Brussels 17- 21 November 2008

  4. Checkingthecurrentscenario Burton et al. 1975 Wang et al. 2003 ESWW5, Brussels 17- 21 November 2008

  5. Resultsfor 1963-2006 (100 events) ESWW5, Brussels 17- 21 November 2008

  6. Looking for other features…

  7. Both, E convectiveand B/t, are relatedtotheappearance of aninduced E Ey

  8. The UAH warningtool The warning feature for intense geomagnetic activity: DBz over a threshold for a certain time interval Dt. ESWW5, Brussels 17- 21 November 2008

  9. The results for 1995-2005 Input: 5 minutes resolution Bz from OMNIweb ESWW5, Brussels 17- 21 November 2008

  10. Theresults as a function of Dst Saiz et al., in press ESWW5, Brussels 17- 21 November 2008

  11. www2.uah.es/srg_spaceweather/forecasting.html

  12. www2.uah.es/srg_spaceweather/forecasting.html

  13. Conclusions • We have developed a new tool for warning of large Dst variations based on Bz only • Large Dst are related to significant Bz variations • The use of long time data series hides the effect of Bz variations in Dst modeling ESWW5, Brussels 17- 21 November 2008

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