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Anthropogenic Speed-Up of Oceanic Planetary Waves: Implications for El Niños

Explore the effects of anthropogenic factors on oceanic planetary waves, specifically how ocean warming may lead to a faster propagation speed. This study investigates potential links to increased El Niños under CO2 doubling.

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Anthropogenic Speed-Up of Oceanic Planetary Waves: Implications for El Niños

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  1. Anthropogenic Speed-Up of Oceanic Planetary Waves John C. Fyfe and Oleg A. Saenko

  2. Courtesy of Paolo Cipollini

  3. Chelton and Schlax, 1996

  4. Upper Ocean Heat Content IPCC AR4 Report, 2007

  5. AOGCM Simulations • 1000 year run with fixed external forcing • Five 20th century runs with observed GHG and aerosol forcing • Five 21st century runs following the IPCC SRES A2 emissions scenario

  6. For each 20-year period solve: Capotondi and Alexander, 2001

  7. Correlation between actual and computed h Fyfe and Saenko, 2007

  8. Fyfe and Saenko, 2007

  9. Propagation speed at 14ºN Fyfe and Saenko, 2007

  10. Propagation speed change Fyfe and Saenko, 2007

  11. 5% ENSO period change under CO2 doubling Producing more frequent El Niños? Merryfield, 2006

  12. Conclusions • Anthropogenic speed-up of oceanic planetary waves with ocean warming • Used as possible explanation for more frequent El Niños under CO2 doubling

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