Consolidation of Independent States

1. Consolidation of Independent States Today’s topic: New governments and the consolidation of power in the post-colonial MENA region.

2. Cold War Lens: • WWII brought about change in international environment • Support by both US and Soviets (financial & weaponry) • General Characteristics of the cold war in developing states: • military bases • keep imperial territories after independence (patronage) • (Great Britain in Iraq and Jordan, France in Lebanon) • Anti-nationalist fights • (France against Algerian FLN) • Regional security alliances • (Baghdad Pact, 1954)

3. Different regime types just after independence: • Self-imposed monarchs (Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia) • Monarchs imposed or supported by colonial powers (Muhammad Reza, King Faruq, Libyan Sanusis (King Idris), King Abdullah, King Feisel • Governments based on liberation movements (FLN – Algeria, Destour - Tunisia) • Democracies (Lebanon, Israel, Turkey) • Changes after independence: • Some liberalization (Jordan, Morocco) • Military coups (Libya, Syria, Egypt…) • Revolution (Iran) • Civil war (Yemen, Lebanon, Taliban) • Foreign invasion (Afghanistan, Iraq, Afghanistan today) • Elections (Turkey, Mossadegh episode)

4. Why did some monarchies last while others were overthrown? • The influence of the royal family • (Michael Herb’s “All in the Family” theory) • Rentier state • Oppression & dissatisfaction • Strategic skills of ruler • Strategic skills of coup leaders • External forces (relationships w/ major powers) • Divergent roles played by armies: • Army as arbiter & veto player (Turkey, Algeria) • Army as providing leadership (Egypt) • Army as pillar of support (Jordan) • Army as potential rival to ruler (Syria) • Army as an institution under civilian control (Israel?)

5. How do governments consolidate power? • Distributing rents (oil income, Suez canal, or wooing foreign aid) • Ideology (Islamization, Zionism, Arabism, Ba’athism) • Suppression (Savak in Iran) or seeming benign but still threat (Morocco, Jordan) • Outright brutality (Hama Massacre ’82, Black September) • Social oppression through saturation (see Asad photos) • Elections to diffuse dissent (Jordan) • Partial concessions to opposition • Use of foreign powers (Saudis, Bahrain) • Use of foreign threats as pretext for action • Controlling the economy • Use of sophisticated strategies: Divide & rule (Jordan), cooption (M.R. Shah and attempted w/ Mossadeq), Hearts and Minds • Riding popular waves (Egyptian Islamization, Jordanian Nasserism, Saddam’s use of Islamic symbols in 90s) • Encouraging rival dissent groups under guise of pluralism (Sadat’s blunder, Hamas) • Social reengineering (Iraq) • Weakening potentially political structures like tribes and clans • Leveraging minorities (2-step leverage): Jews in Morocco, Shah’s Bahais, Circassians in Jordan, all non-Sunnis in Syria, Sunni regional minorities in Iraq • Create balanced and redundant security and military forces (Syria) • State employment (Egypt, Syria) • Institutional changes (courts, election procedures, etc.) When are governments overthrown? When they fail to do these things well.

6. Hearts & Minds The strategy consists of: • Differentiating among active fighters, passive supporters, genuine neutrals, and government loyalists. This, of course, requires a centralization of the flow of information to know who’s who. • Geographically, physically or psychologically isolating those identified as the active rivals of the state from others. This requires a highly coordinated and thus centralized military effort. • Providing positive sanctions to potential supporters of rival organizations and protecting them from abuse by undisciplined troops to discourage them from supporting rivals.

7. Cooption Cooption is a strategy initiated by a dominant organization or coalition of organizations that consists of offering positive sanctions to other threatening organizations or key individuals within them in return for accepting the norms of interaction desired by the dominant organization or coalition

8. Saturation (Hafez al-Asad)

9. Turkey

10. Turkey • Democrats win election in 1950 • Did not like intrusiveness of Kemalist RPP • Smaller changes, not major reversal of Kemalism (education, private property, scale back secularism, etc) • Growing national debt and repression • Reactionary protests • 1960 Coup d’etat through military junta • New Constitution and 2nd Republic (1961-1980) • Turmoil, urbanization, demographic change • Proxy conflicts (Cold War influence) in 1970s • Military let fester then intervened in 1980 with ‘Coup by Memorandum’ • Restoration of Democracy in 1983 w/ election of Motherland Party

11. Iran and its oil fields

12. Iran • Muhammad Reza Shah • Domestic coalition  tribal leaders, ulama, landowning elite • Domestic opposition  labor movement & middle class • Foreign Powers • UK – support of MRS, tribal leaders, landowning class • Control of oil through Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (AIOC) • Soviets – support of Tudeh Party • US – supported Iranian army for stability and opposition to Soviet ambitions (containment) • Widespread sentiment against foreign interference • Mohammed Mossadeq and National Front Coalition • Key Issue: Nationalizing the AIOC • Passed nationalization law in Majlis and elected Mossadeq to position of Prime Minister (1951-53) • US and UK boycott Iranian oil after nationalization • Boycott hurts Mossadeq’s ability to implement democratic reforms • Fissure in Mossadeq’s National Front

13. Iran (cont.) • US (CIA) and UK (MI6) assist in overthrowing Mossadeq in coup to reinstate Muhammad Reza Shah • First failed, then succeeded • Return of royal dictatorship and authoritarian rule (even more oppressive) • Agreement b/w UK and Iran for 50/50 revenue split over oil revenues • half billion dollars in military aid for MRS to consolidate power • period of harsh authoritarianism • opposition led by Ayatollah Khomeini • White Revolution (bloodless, top down) starting in 1963 • Major social, economic, political reforms • private ownership of land, increase in education, social welfare, women’s enfranchisement, etc. • Maintained corrupt regime • uneven distribution of income and continued political repression • Growing opposition (especially by religious establishment)

14. Egypt, Sinai, Strait of Tiran