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Setting Priorities for Development of New and Improved Climate Products

Setting Priorities for Development of New and Improved Climate Products. BY JIM O’BRIEN COAPS,FSU. WHO ARE THE USERS?. ARE THEY WEATHER FOLKS OR CLIMATE USERS?. IF A USER DECIDES TO USE A CLIMATE FORECAST, SHOULD HE KNOW THE SKILL OR ERROR BARS OF THE PRODUCT?. What are standard variables?.

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Setting Priorities for Development of New and Improved Climate Products

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  1. Setting Priorities for Development of New and Improved Climate Products BY JIM O’BRIEN COAPS,FSU

  2. WHO ARE THE USERS? ARE THEY WEATHER FOLKS OR CLIMATE USERS? IF A USER DECIDES TO USE A CLIMATE FORECAST, SHOULD HE KNOW THE SKILL OR ERROR BARS OF THE PRODUCT?

  3. What are standard variables? The standard “weather variables” are: • Temperature - Hourly, daily, maximum and minimum, monthly, annual • Atmospheric Pressure • Rainfall - Hourly, daily, monthly, etc., rainfall rates • Humidity - Specific humidity, relative humidity, wet-bulb temperature, etc. • Winds - Wind speed and direction, wind components Most clients need derived information. EXAMPLES:

  4. Wind Climatology

  5. Impact Freezes of the last century Freeze Date ENSO State *Dec 1894 Neutral Feb 1899 Neutral Dec 1934 Neutral Jan 1940 Neutral *Dec 1961 Neutral Jan 1977 El Nino Jan 1981 Neutral *Dec 1983 Neutral Jan 1985 Neutral *Dec 1989 Neutral Jan 1997 Neutral * High Impact

  6. ENSO and Florida FreezeProbabilites

  7. Extended Freeze Events

  8. La Niña and Wildfires April • La Niña brings drier than normal conditions (30%-40%) and warmer temperatures from November through April. • Wildfire activity is increased throughout the wildfire season. • The increased activity can be expected during nearly all La Niña episodes. Anomalous Wildfire activity (acres burned) during La Niña episodes

  9. Wildfire Threat forecast • Based on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI)

  10. SECC Partners Florida State Univeristy – climate studies, coupled modeling, climate forecasts, forestry University of Florida – extension, crop modeling, decision support tools University of Miami – climate, economics, water resources, assessment University of Georgia – climate, extension, crop modeling, assessment University of Auburn – extension, economics, insurance University of Alabama Huntsville – climate, water resources

  11. Crop Yield Variability Ag Impacts in Florida, SE USA • Crop yield • Drought • Excess rainfall • Freeze • Quality of produce • Costs of production • Profit risks • Environmental concerns Impacts of hundreds of millions of dollar in Florida, documented by Florida Dept. of Agr & Consumer Services, various research papers

  12. ENSO effects on production of crops in Florida

  13. Managing Risks Associated with Climate Variability using Forecasts • Irrigation and drainage • Change variety, planting date, fertilizer program, irrigation • Winter pasture vs. hay purchase • Scheduling operations • Crop insurance decisions • Marketing decisions • Wildfire management, burning • Reducing environmental risks

  14. Se.AgClimate.org • Web-based system being developed in partnership with Extension by the South East Climate Consortium (SECC) with support from NOAA and USDA-RMA • Will deliver climate-related information for decision makers in agriculture and natural resources

  15. Some Tools in AgClimate • Climate Forecast • Rainfall • Temperature (max and min) • Frost • Drought • KBDI (Forest fire risk, mosquito control) • LGI (research in progress) • Crop Yield • Crop Development

  16. Climate forecast information is provided base on the current and projected state of the tropical Pacific Ocean.

  17. AgClimate now displays rainfall anomalies for El Nino phase in Polk County, FL.

  18. Probabilistic climate forecast information is displayed as probability density and probability of exceedence graphs (shown For Polk Cty, FL).

  19. Chill Unit Accumulation • Blueberries • Strawberries • Peaches • Wheat

  20. Chill-Hour Forecasts for Fruit Production

  21. Chill Units – Peach, Alachua County, FL El Nino Years 1,261 Chill Units on average

  22. Chill Units – Peach, Alachua County, FL La Nina Years 1,058 Chill Units on average

  23. El Niño Anomolies La Niña Anomolies ninoanom ninaanom -78 - 0 -306 - -300 1 - 100 -299 - -200 101 - 200 -199 - -100 201 - 300 -99 - 0 1 - 100 101 - 200 Higher chill with El Niño; Lower chill with La Niña. Signals weak in N GA & AL

  24. WHAT IS THE FUTURE IN CLIMATE SERVICES? Learn what users need-not what they want! Build cooperation with RCC’S,SC’S,RISA’S and others (SECC HAS COOP PROGRAM WITH CPC!) Provide derived variables for climate users Calculate error bars for probability forecasts Tercile forecasts have limited value for users

  25. Visit Our Websites COAPS: www.coaps.fsu.edu Florida Climate Center: www.coaps.fsu.edu/climate_center Florida Automated Weather Network: fawn.ifas.ufl.edu For More Information:

  26. THE END

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