Estrus Detection Technologies and Their E conomic I mplications

1. Estrus Detection Technologies and Their Economic Implications K.A. Dolecheck W.J. Silvia J.M. Bewley University of Kentucky

2. Estrus Detection Methods NAHMS 2007

3. Visual Observation Problems • Cow problems • Poor footing • Inadequate space • High production • People problems • Time allocation • Accuracy

4. Technology Opportunities • Estrus associated changes • Secondary signs of estrus • Endocrine signs

5. Technology Opportunities • Estrus associated changes • Standing behavior

6. Technology Opportunities • Estrus associated changes • Standing behavior • Secondary signs of estrus • Activity

8. Activity Estrus

9. Technology Opportunities • Estrus associated changes • Standing behavior • Secondary signs of estrus • Activity • Rumination

10. Rumination Estrus

11. Technology Opportunities • Estrus associated changes • Standing behavior • Secondary signs of estrus • Activity • Rumination • Body temperature • Rectal • Vaginal • Reticular • Tympanic

12. Vaginal Temperature Temperature Time

13. Technology Opportunities • Estrus associated changes • Standing behavior • Secondary signs of estrus • Activity • Rumination • Body temperature • Endocrine signs • Progesterone levels

14. OVULATION 93 +/- 11h 31 +/- 8h Progesterone ONSET 24 +/- 6h LH ESTRUS -4 -3 -2 -1 0

15. Technology Opportunities • Estrus associated changes • Standing behavior • Secondary signs of estrus • Activity • Rumination • Body temperature • Endocrine signs • Progesterone levels • Other opportunities • Heart rate • Feed intake • Lying vs. standing time • Milk yield • Vaginal conductivity

17. Herd Dependent • Herd is the biggest factor determining if a system will work • Starting point • Management

18. Investment Analysis of Automated Estrus Detection Technologies K.A. Dolecheck, G. Heersche Jr., and J.M. Bewley University of Kentucky

19. Objective • Develop a decision-making tool • User-friendly • Farm-specific • Multiple technologies • Dashboard tools provide interactive interfaces for analysis and decision support

20. Model Outputs • Reproductive performance • Days open (French and Nebel, 2003) • Investment analysis • Years to break even • Net present value

21. CalculationsNet Present Value • Present value of cash inflows minus present value of cash outflows • Accounts for timing of revenues and cash flows • Good investment: Net present value ≥ 0 • System net present value determined by considering the value associated with a change in days open

22. CalculationsOther Considerations • Accounts for costs associated with: • Pre-investment estrus detection method • Semen usage • Pregnancy diagnosis • 10 year investment period

23. Limitations • Investment analysis does not consider: • Additional benefits of technologies • Changes in heifer inventory • Effect on quality of producer’s life

24. Tabs organize information Description and instructions for user • Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies

25. Hover buttons explain inputs and results Inputs adjustable in multiple ways • Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies

26. Compare up to 3 different technologies • Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies

27. Technology names appear here Black box and “Best Option” indicate the highest net present value Net present value shown visibly as either good (green) or bad (red) • Dashboard available at: www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies

28. Example Analysis • Average United States Holstein dairy herd • DairyMetrics (Dairy Records Management Systems, Raleigh, NC, USA) • Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI; Columbia, MO, USA) • Published literature • Compare high vs. low • Initial investment cost • Cow unit cost • Estrus detection rate

29. Farm Specific InputsHerd Assumptions

30. Farm Specific InputsCulling & Replacement Assumptions

31. Farm Specific InputsReproduction Assumptions

32. Farm Specific InputsReproduction Assumptions

33. Technology Inputs • Initial investment • $5,000 (Low) • $10,000 (High) • Unit price • $50 (50) • $100 (100) • Estrus detection rate • 70% (70) • 90% (90)

34. System InputsInitial Costs Low: $5,000 initial investment High: $10,000 initial investment 50: $50 unit price 100: $100 unit price

35. Other Assumptions • Discount rate = 8.0% (Bewley et al., 2010) • Every animal requires a unit • Replace 5% of units each year

36. Analysis Outcome

37. Analysis ResultsDays Open

38. Low: $5,000 initial investment High: $10,000 initial investment 50: $50 unit price 100: $100 unit price 70: 70% estrus detection rate 90: 90% estrus detection rate Analysis ResultsYears to Break Even Investment-Unit Price-EDR

39. Low: $5,000 initial investment High: $10,000 initial investment 50: $50 unit price 100: $100 unit price 70: 70% estrus detection rate 90: 90% estrus detection rate Analysis ResultsNet Present Value Investment-Unit Price-EDR

40. Additional AnalysisBreak Even Estrus Detection Rate • Technology estrus detection rates vary under different management situations • Goal: Determine lowest estrus detection rate at which investment in each system is still profitable • Change each system’s estrus detection rate until net present value is equal to $0

41. Additional AnalysisBreak Even Estrus Detection Rate Investment-Unit Price Low: $5,000 initial investment High: $10,000 initial investment 50: $50 unit price 100: $100 unit price

42. Additional AnalysisGood Reproductive Management Situation • Investment profitability is dependent on pre-investment reproductive management • Goal: Determine how investment profitability changes with improved beginning estrus detection • 95th percentile = 76%(DairyMetrics)

43. Additional AnalysisGood Reproductive Management Situation Investment-Unit Price-EDR Technology Example Low: $5,000 initial investment High: $10,000 initial investment 50: $50 unit price 100: $100 unit price 70: 70% estrus detection rate 90: 90% estrus detection rate

44. Conclusions • Change in days open is affected by estrus detection rate • Years to break even is affected by: • 1) Estrus detection rate • 2) Initial investment cost • 3) Cow unit cost • Net present value is affected by: • 1) Estrus detection rate • 2) Cow unit cost • 3) Initial investment cost

45. Conclusions • Starting point determines investment profitability • Accurate information is essential for accurate results • Producer • Technology manufacturers • Dairy producers considering purchasing an automated estrus detection technology system can use this model as a decision support tool

46. Questions? Karmella Dolecheck 411 W.P. Garrigus Building Lexington, KY 40546-0215 208-410-9015 karmella.dolecheck@uky.edu Jeffrey Bewley 407 WP Garrigus Building Lexington, KY 40546 859-257-7543 jbewley@uky.edu • Dashboard available at: • www2.ca.uky.edu/afsdairy/HeatDetectionTechnologies