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Brett Stuart June 19, 2014

Brett Stuart June 19, 2014. Global Pork/Protein Update. Overview. Key Global Protein Trends U.S. Pork/Protein Exports Watchlist. Key Macro Assumptions: 2014. Cheaper Feed : Shift downward to U.S. corn at and below $5/bushel is significant

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Brett Stuart June 19, 2014

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  1. Brett StuartJune 19, 2014 Global Pork/Protein Update

  2. Overview • Key Global Protein Trends • U.S. Pork/Protein Exports • Watchlist

  3. Key Macro Assumptions: 2014 • Cheaper Feed: • Shift downward to U.S. corn at and below $5/bushel is significant • All livestock sectors are seeing improved margins • When will broiler production accelerate? • The current margins will fuel broiler expansion initially, followed by hog and cattle expansion • We expect corn prices to average well below US$5/bushel for 2014. USDA’s latest WASDE report suggests corn prices averaging US$4.45 to $4.65/bushel in the 2013/2014 crop year, and US$3.85 to $4.55 for the 2014/2015 crop year. • These levels completely shift margins and optimism toward expansion.

  4. Source: USDA

  5. Key Macro Assumptions: 2014 • Economic Growth: • We cautiously note that world economies are improving. • April 2014 IMF World Economic Outlook: “Global activity has broadly strengthened and is expected to improve further into 2014/2015…. Downside risks identified in previous World Economic Outlook reports have diminished somewhat.” • Overall economic growth is one of the two key drivers of protein consumption globally (the other is population growth) • Global population is growing at 78 million/year • Global GDP growth has averaged US$1.43 trillion/year

  6. Source: USDA, AgriTrends

  7. Key Macro Assumptions: 2014 • Tightening Global Beef Supplies: • The world basically stopped producing additional beef in 2007 and the result has been rapid appreciation in beef prices • From 2012 to 2013 Chinese demand sucked up an additional 700,000 metric tons (carcass weight equivalent) further straining tight supplies; Chinese imports will top 1 mmt in 2014 • The U.S. cowherd is beginning an expansion phase which will tighten supplies here over the next 2-3 years • Brazil and India are the only producers actively expanding production (but note our article on Indian beef on the back page).

  8. Global Meat and Broiler Production Source: USDA/FAS

  9. Source: GTIS, AgriTrends

  10. Key Macro Assumptions: 2014 • PED Virus: • What began as a game-changer in the U.S. pork sector is now a world phenomenon. PED virus has been reported in 13+ markets and has proven incredibly difficult to contain. • U.S. markets have went to stratospheric levels on supply fears and those fears are becoming reality. U.S. gilt/barrow slaughter is now down –3% over the past 9 months and the market gap is rapidly approaching. • Considering the PEDv difficulties in the U.S. expectations are for serious challenges in Mexico, Canada, Japan, S. Korea, and abroad. The extent of this swath is unknown but tight supplies will move global prices higher.

  11. Down -2.97 mil head over the past 9 months Source: USDA

  12. PEDv 2014 Assumptions • Slaughter: -5.5% (-5.9 mil pigs) • Down -8% Jun-Aug • Production: -3.5% (-815 mil lbs) • Weights: +4.2 lbs (+7 lbs Jan-May), decline as summer hits and hogs are marketed early • Exports: -1% (-35 mil lbs) • Now up 10% YTD, but down -7% from 2012 • Net U.S. consumption: -4% • Per capita consumption drops -2.4 lbs • PEDv Now in 13+ countries

  13. Source: Japan ALIC

  14. Source: CME

  15. Source: Various market reports, AgriTrends

  16. China New FSIS Regs Demand and Potential

  17. Source: Average of various Chinese regional reports, AgriTrends

  18. Source: China MOA, AgriTrends

  19. 2014 Imports = 2% of Chinese consumption Source: USDA/FAS, beef and pork in carc. wt. equiv.

  20. Chinese Self-Sufficiency: Food Source: USDA/FAS

  21. China Self-Sufficiency A 1% decline in China’s self sufficiency equals: • 2.1 mmt of corn • 1.45 mmt of rice • 1.21 mmt of wheat • 538 kmt of pork • 135 kmt of broilers • 58 kmt of beef Source: USDA/FAS, AgriTrends

  22. Global Population Density

  23. U.S. Pork/Protein

  24. Source: USDA

  25. Source: GTIS, Global AgriTrends

  26. Source: USDA/ERS

  27. Source: USDA, AgriTrends

  28. Total exports will surpass US$17.5 billion in 2013 Source: USDA, Global AgriTrends Forecasts

  29. Issues / Watchlist

  30. February 18, 2014: Russia Bans EU Pork over ASF in Lithuania

  31. Source: GTIS, AgriTrends

  32. Source: GTIS, AgriTrends

  33. Trade Access Trans-Pacific Partnership (JAPAN) • What will Japan be allowed to keep “sensitive”? • Rice, dairy, pork, & beef? That’s a long list… • Potential for U.S. beef (38.5% duty) and U.S. pork (gate price)

  34. Trade Access MCOOL • WTO to notify by summer (?) if U.S. revisions bring it into compliance; if so, its over • If not, retaliation to pressure U.S. congress • Short term impacts could be HUGE • Likely in 2015

  35. Watchlist • Tight global beef & tight N. American pork supplies = Higher Prices • PEDv • New FSIS certification requirements (pork to China) • China beef (and poultry) • Global dairy markets cooling? • MCOOL – WTO ruling by late summer? • ASF / Russian politics (meat and Ukraine) • Highest global meat prices ever

  36. www.globalagritrends.com • Services Offered: • Global market research • Specific market reports • Email alerts/analysis • Monthly newsletter • Webinars / presentations Denver, Colorado Brett Stuart bstuart@globalagritrends.com 303-803-8716

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