Assessing Political Leaders in Context: Statecraft, the Natural Rate of Governability and the Case of Gordon Brown s Pre

1. Assessing Political Leaders in Context: Statecraft, the Natural Rate of Governability and the Case of Gordon Brown�s Premiership Jim Buller & Toby S. James Paper for the Political Studies Association Conference April 2012, Belfast Europa Hotel

2. Re-assessing Gordon Brown How to assess Gordon Brown�s premiership? Lost 2010 general election �Saved the world� Led the UK into a recession? How do we assess political leaders in general?

3. Existing assessments Two recent imports from the U.S. Expert survey (Schlesinger Sr, 1948) Theakston and Gill (2011) 10th/12 post war leaders Greatest achievement: �response to the banking / financial crisis� Greatest failure: �Economic management (38%) Greenstein approach. Theakston (2011): Brown �was not well-equipped for the highest office, in terms of his leadership abilities, characteristics and skills� (2011: 78). But what about context?

4. The statecraft approach Critical realist (James, 2011), historical institutionalist (Bradbury, 2010), elitist approach (Evans, 2005) to British Politics. Adapted by Buller and James (forthcoming) to assess British Prime Ministers and applied to Blair Assumptions: Analytical primacy to the Court �the formal Chief Executive plus his/her political friends and advisors� (Bulpitt, 1995: 518). The court is self-interested, rational, office-seeking actor Statecraft � �the art of winning elections, and, above all, achieving a necessary degree of governing competence in office (Bulpitt, 1986: 1995). Can assess leaders against whether achieve support functions (Buller and James, forthcoming).

5. Statecraft Functions

6. The Natural Rate of Governability The statecraft approach appreciates context � calls it the Natural rate of governability . Bulpitt: �Party leaders in office operate within a structural framework which, in terms of the political management of the external forces on domestic politics, yields both constraints and opportunities. These constraints and opportunities emerge from the relevant historical, party-political and external environmental characteristics of the particular polity under investigation� (Bulpitt 1988:185).

7. The Natural Rate of Governability 2 Consequences: �It follows that we must assess the behaviour of political actors not simply in terms of the extent to which they reach their publicised goals, but the degree to which they effectively confront the varying levels of the of governability delivered by the structure in different time periods� (Bulpitt 1996:1096). Should therefore �compensate� leaders who face a difficult NRG The Court will change the rules of the game to make successful statecraft more likely (James 2011, forthcoming). Should therefore �reward� leaders who change their NRG to make successful statecraft more likely. Need to develop and define the NRG in different contexts (something Bulpitt was reluctant to do). Yet, the NRG is not neutral, objective, or independent of the agent (political leader). Can use comparative politics literature to identify some relevant structural factors.

8. The natural rate of governability 3

9. Winning Electoral Strategy Lost in 2010 with only 29.7% of votes, but denied Cameron an outright majority and came close to forming a coalition. Successive �mid-term� defeats demoralised party morale �Ford Cortina� campaign Duffy mistake �Fair� leadership debate performance Fluctuations in polling figures Failure to call 2007 election. NRG: Unpopular party post-Iraq Poor party finances Anti-Brown press Electoral system / geography heavily advantaged the Court

12. Governing Competence Huge fluctuations, but ultimately seen as narrowly less competent on the economy than the Conservatives explains failed WES? NRG: �Credit crunch�, Bursting of �North-Sea Bubble� However, Conservatives also found competence difficult Successfully blamed outside forces and argued for globally co-ordinated action

14. �Best Party on the Economy May 2009-April 2010 (%)

15. Party Management More rebellions in his first month in office than any former PM. Three attempted leadership �coups�. NRG: Favourable: No credible leadership rival, plots mistimed and disorganised, difficult rules to depose, saved by the financial crisis. Made enemies too easily Unpopular policies with the party at times when support was low (10p tax, 42 detention, Gurkas) Survived by chance but: Brown �attack dogs� kept enemies at bay Exploited financial crisis � �no time for a novice� Bringing back Mandelson

16. Political Argument Hegemony Criticised for not having an overall policy vision However, all that Bulpitt requires is being on the right side of key valence issues Deployed �cuts versus investment� argument against Conservatives Focussed in on �34bn funding gap. NRG: Rising budget deficit, Conservative success at keeping the deficit on the agenda made this argument difficult. Even Mandelson, Darling and others thought that it was not credible

17. Bending the Rules of the Game Stop-start approach Criticised for lacking vision, but statecraft does not require this not required for statecraft Outcome-contingent terms: Maintained FPTP Won 40.8% of seats on only 29.7% of votes Act-contingent terms: Did enough to convince the Liberals to consider a coalition NRG: Favourable � some demands by Alan Johnston but no mass movement for constitutional reform. Missed opportunity?

18. Conclusions Statecraft is an alternative organising perspective for assessing leadership Statecraft approach sensitive to structure and agency. The NRG is a concept in need of development Applied to Brown: Did poorly, but generally in a difficult NRG (financial crisis; young Conservative leader) However, some criticism still justified: Some of the NRG not unfavourable (financial crisis, flawed leadership challenges and favourable electoral system). Some strategic errors (2007 non-election, alienation of parliamentary party)

19. References Bradbury, J. 2010. "Interpreting political development and bringing the government of the state back in: Jim Bulpitt�s Territory and Power and the case of the United Kingdom " Government and Opposition 45(3):318-344. Bulpitt, J. 1986. The discipline of the New Democracy: Mrs. Thatcher's Domestic Statecraft. Political Studies, 34(1), 19-39. Bulpitt, J. 1988. "Rational politicians and Conservative statecraft in the open polity." Pp. 180-205 in British Foreign Policy under Thatcher, edited by P.Bryd. Deddington: Philip Allan. Bulpitt, J. 1996. "Historical Politics: Leaders, Statecraft and Regime in Britain at the Accession of Elizabeth II." Pp. 1093-1106 in Contemporary Political Studies, vol. 2, edited by I. Hampster-Monk and J. Stayner. Oxford: Blackwell. Buller, J.and T.S. James. forthcoming. "Statecraft and the Assessment of Political Leadership in Britain: The Case of New Labour and Tony Blair." British Journal of Politics and International Relations. James, T.S. 2011. "Institutional Change as Statecraft? A Critical Appraisal of the Contribution of Jim Bulpitt�s Statecraft Thesis to Theories of Institutional Change." in Public Administration Committee Conference. University of Birmingham. James, T.S. forthcoming. Elite Statecraft and Election Administration: Bending the Rules of the Game. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Schlesinger Sr, A.M. 1948. "The U.S. Presidents: What makes a President great? Or a failure? The verdict of history provides some answers." Life XXV:65-74. Theakston, K. 2011. "Gordon Brown as prime minister: Political skills and leadership style." British Politics 6(1):78-100. Theakston, K. and M. Gill. 2011. "The Postwar Premiership League." The Political Quarterly 82(1):67-80.