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Conservation Design in the Atlantic Coast Joint Venture

Conservation Design in the Atlantic Coast Joint Venture. Needs, the Future and Roles. Goals. Deliver habitat conservation necessary to meet individual bird initiatives’ population targets Integrated across multiple priority species Explicitly recognize Synergism Conflicts

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Conservation Design in the Atlantic Coast Joint Venture

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  1. Conservation Design in the Atlantic Coast Joint Venture Needs, the Future and Roles

  2. Goals • Deliver habitat conservation necessary to meet individual bird initiatives’ population targets • Integrated across multiple priority species • Explicitly recognize • Synergism • Conflicts • Populations should be sustainable

  3. Explicitly Recognize: • Issues of scale: spatial and temporal • Landscapes are not static • Limited control over the majority of the landscape • Conflicting species’ needs

  4. Explicitly Recognize: • Need to incorporate error propagation • Need for probabilistic statement regarding chance of success

  5. “Fuzzy” Timeline Additional monitoring Simple DSTs initiated Landscape characterization Build conceptual models 2006 Evaluate effectiveness of actions Simple DSTs initiated Evaluate assumptions of models 2011 Link bird & landscape models Overlay global climate  Evaluate assumptions of models 2016...

  6. Immediate Steps • Initiation of additional monitoring programs • Development of regional population goals • Characterization of current landscape conditions • Development of conceptual models that link priority species to habitat conditions • Compare estimated landscape capability to “regional population goals” • Assess where to implement management activities to affect 

  7. Components of CBM • Recommendations for estimating long-term trends in population size at a large spatial scale. • Recommendations on short-term assessments.

  8. Population ObjectivesTricolored Heron • South Atlantic Coastal Plain: long-term mean of 7,500 pairs (<5,000 pairs) • (a) NC - 1,500 pairs (~1,000 pairs) • (b) SC - 3,000 pairs (~2,000 pairs) • (c) GA - 2,000 pairs (500-1,000 pairs) • (d) FL - 1,000 pairs (<1,000 pairs)

  9. Landscape Characterization BCR 30 – PIF Assessment BCR 14 – TNC BCR 28 – ACJV Staff Southeast – SE Regional GAP

  10. Species Habitat Models

  11. Blackburnian Warbler

  12. Intermediate Steps • Continuation/expansion of monitoring programs • Evaluation/refinement of conceptual models • Monitor effectiveness of management actions • Begin building landscape & urban growth models

  13. From: Robinson, S. K., Thompson III, F. R., Donovan, T. M., Whitehead, D. R. and J. Faaborg. 1995. Regional forest fragmentation and the success of migratory birds. Science 267:1987-1990.

  14. Long-term • Link landscape & urban growth models with models of bird abundance/distribution • Assess future landscape capability (are we sustaining populations?) • Evaluate/refine assumptions (should be continuous effort)

  15. Landscape Dynamics • Vegetation communities cycle through seral stages • Land ownership patterns change with resulting changes in mgmt practices • Catastrophic environmental events (e.g., hurricanes) • Urban sprawl

  16. Existing Landscape Conditions

  17. Ownership Patterns

  18. Modeling Future Landscape Conditions

  19. Modeling Future Bird Community

  20. Blackburnian Warbler

  21. Why does it Matter?

  22. Roles and Responsibilities • ACJV Staff • Coordination • Ensure consistency • Identify sources of funding • State • Help identify needs • Assist implementation • Monitoring support (logistical & $$) • Federal Agencies • Help identify needs • Provide funding • Logistical support • Coordination

  23. Issues to be Addressed • Development of objective function to select among set of “optimal” landscape configurations • Evaluation of management actions • Assessment to ensure desired outcomes are achieved • Numerous statistical and modeling issues

  24. Issues to be Addressed (cont.) • Continued coordination with other planning efforts

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