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Beyond Moore’s Law The best way to predict the future is to invent it. --Alan Kay

Beyond Moore’s Law The best way to predict the future is to invent it. --Alan Kay. Gordon Bell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Corporation. Beyond Moore’s Law. Just FCB (faster, cheaper, better)… COTS will soon mean consumer off the shelf

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Beyond Moore’s Law The best way to predict the future is to invent it. --Alan Kay

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  1. Beyond Moore’s LawThe best way to predict the future is to invent it. --Alan Kay Gordon Bell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Corporation

  2. Beyond Moore’s Law • Just FCB (faster, cheaper, better)… COTS will soon mean consumer off the shelf • Moore’s Law and technology progress likely to continue for another decade for: processing, memory, storage, LANs, WANs • System-on-a chip of interesting sizes will emerge to create 0 cost systems • Any displacement technology is unlikely… Carver Mead’s Law c1980A technology takes 11 years to get established • On the other hand, we are on Internet time! • No DNA, molecular, or quantum computers, or new stores

  3. Beyond Moore’s Law Results • Is the Internet aka www.everything? • Moore’s Law to get cheaper, one chip systems that increase portability, ubiquity, etc. • Paper-competitive Screens • Disks of 1 TB • Wireless for ubiquity; including GPS • Bridges to television • Bridges to PSTN for phones, PDAs, etc.

  4. Beyond Moore’s Law Results • The more uniform the system, the more attractive it is for developers to produce many varieties of low cost apps • The more uniform the system, the more susceptible they are to viruses • Change will be due to ubiquity of computing brought about by networking • PLUS • Interesting, new platforms that interface use/users • When can we speak to these computers? • Sensors e.g. cameras of all types • GPS and direction (pointing) • MEMS & Biochips in particular • There are many other laws and forces, beyond Moore’s Law that determine IT

  5. Big event of 1999: massive infusion of venture capital • >$3 Billion/quarter (1/3 for Internet).…Esprit $3B/3 yrs • Capital is pulling people from research. • Product development beats research if you have an idea what you’re looking for • Little technology. Apps development. • 1960-2000: shift from central to distributed back to fully distributed computing

  6. Forecast of corp web-enabled expenditures

  7. In a decade we can/will have: • more powerful personal computers • processing 10-100x • 4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper • Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays • low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use • adequate networking???? • ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs • Competitive wireless networking • One chip, networked platforms including light bulbs, cameras everywhere, etc. • Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market sharewatch, pocket, body implant, home • Inevitable, continued cyberization… the challenge… interfacing platforms and people.

  8. What if could or when can we store everything we’ve: read/written, heard, and seen?

  9. Storing all we’ve read (written), heard (listened to), & seen (presented) Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetime read text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 G speech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 T video 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P

  10. High Performance Computing

  11. *IBM Bell Prize and Future Peak Tflops (t) Petaflops study target NEC CM2 XMP NCube

  12. Computer types -------- Connectivity-------- WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM Netwrked Supers… GRID VPPuni NEC mP NEC super Cray X…T (all mPv) Clusters micros vector Legion Condor Beowulf NT clusters T3E SP2(mP) NOW SGI DSM clusters & SGI DSM Mainframes Multis WSs PCs

  13. High Performance Computing • Supers we knew are Japanese; • scalability & COTS in… but you have to roll your own else pay the Unix & proprietary taxes • Beowulf is $14K/TB ( 6 x 4 x 40 GB) • IBM 4000R 1 rack: 2x42 500Mhz processors, 84 GB, 84 disks (3TB @36GB/disk)$420K … still cheaper than the “big buys” • $10-20K/node for special purpose vs $2K for a MAC • EMC, IBM at $1 million/TB; vs $14K

  14. Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a hierarchy of computers! Body Continent Region/ Intranet Cars… phys. nets Home… buildings Campus World Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

  15. Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information • Coupling to all information and information processors • Pure bits e.g. printed matter • Bit tokens e.g. money • State: places, things, and people • State: physical networks

  16. Bell’s law of computer class formation to cover Cyberspace • New computer platforms emerge based on chip density evolution • Computer classes require new platforms, networks, and cyberization • New apps and content develop around each new class • Each class becomes a vertically disintegrated industry based on hardware and software standards

  17. Mainframes (central) Log price WSs PCs (personals) Time Bell’s Evolution Of Computer Classes Technology enables two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance Mini Handheld ?? 1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .8 1.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62

  18. Platform evolution: What do they do that’s useful? How do they communicate?

  19. Price, performance, and class of various goods & services Computer price = $10 x 10 class# Computer weight = .05 x 10 class# Car price = $6K x 1.5 class # Transportation artifact prices = k x $10 type (shoes,...cars,... trains,... ICBMs) French Restaurants(t='95) = f(ambiance, location) x $25 x 1.5 stars

  20. Bell’s Ten+ Computer Price Tiers 1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card 10$: wrist watch & wallet computers 100$: pocket/ palm computers 1,000$: portable computers 10,000$: personal computers (desktop) 100,000$: departmental computers (closet) 1,000,000$: site computers (glass house) 10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle) 100,000,000$: national centers 1,000,000,000$: the grid Super server: costs more than $100,000“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports

  21. On body and in body networksThird wearables conference

  22. Not shown: ECG; GPS; Libretto, .5mm PCS; Pilot Compass; altimeter Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife

  23. 22 years ago: 6 oz. Watch, manual size > watch size

  24. Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters…1 GB

  25. Steve ManninCyberspace

  26. CMU wearable computers

  27. MedronIc

  28. Your husband just died, … here’s his black box

  29. When will we have smart rooms? • Reasonable sized displays or panel for interaction • Cameras that can recognize various people • Mics and Speech based interface • Speakers • Coupled to all power, data, audio, and video/television networks • Interval Research has a product to track individuals in stores!

  30. Or be completely covered by a smart world

  31. 450 Old Oak Ct, Los Altos, CA

  32. Webcams

  33. Webcam of Hospital in Sweden

  34. Economics-based laws determine the market • As industries increase, they become horizontal • Demand: doubles as price declines by 20% • Learning curves: 10-15% cost decline with 2X units • Nathan’s Laws of Software -- the virtuous circle • Bill’s Law for the economics of PC software • Linus’s Law for software… it is free plus support • Sarnoff & Metcalf Laws for the “value of a network”

  35. Computer Industry 1995 Andersen, EDS, KPMG, Lante, etc. Comshare, D&B, PeopleSoft, SAP Microsoft, Lotus, WordPerfect, etc. • Consult • Apps • Apps • Dbases • OS • Network • Periph • Computers • Micros • Solutions Informix, Ingres, Oracle, Sybase,etc. Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell Novell, Microsoft, Banyan HP, Canon, Lexmark, Seagate IBM, Compaq, DEC, Apple, many others Intel, AMD, Motorola, others EDS, FDC, BTG, API, DataFocus, HFSI

  36. Future Telecom Industry Ericsson, Aspect, Nortel, Octel, others Microsoft, Delrina, many others Applications Applications Databases OS Switching Computers DSP Processors Informix, Microsoft, Oracle, Sybase, others Microsoft, Apple, Sun, Novell, LINUX Ericsson, Nortel, Bay, 3Com, Fore, others Compaq, DEC, Dell, IBM, many others Dialogic, NMS, Rhetorex, others Intel, AMD, Motorola, others

  37. Internet Industry (circa 1999)Courtesy of Zindigo Ventures Content Syndicators Content Syndication $2B+ ** Communication Infobases/Portals Procurement Supply Chain ERP Professional Financial Marketing Operations Government Internet Services $170B* Personal/Employee Data Access Web Hosting Applications & Middleware Computers & Operating Layer Software Infrastructure $171B* Network Hardware/Protocols Transport * University of Texas Center for Research in Electronic Commerce ** This market is not yest sized, estimated at $2B+,growing to $100B in 2002

  38. Nathan’s Laws of software 1. Software is a gas. It expands to fill the container it is in 2. Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Law 3. Software growth makes Moore’s Law possible 4. Software is only limited by human ambition and expectation …GB: and our ability to cyberize I.e. encode

  39. Software Economics: Bill’s Law Fixed_cost Price Marginal _cost = + Units • Bill Joy’s law (Sun): don’t write software for <100,000 platforms @$10 million engineering expense, $1,000 price • Bill Gate’s law:don’t write software for <1,000,000 platforms @$10M engineering expense, $100 price • Examples: • UNIX versus Windows NT: $3,500 versus $500 • Oracle versus SQL-Server: $100,000 versus $6,000 • No spreadsheet or presentation pack on UNIX/VMS/... • Commoditization of base software and hardware

  40. The Virtuous Economic Cycle that drives the PC industry Competition Volume Standards Utility/value Innovation

  41. Linus’s Law: Linux everywhere • Software is or should be free • All source code is “open” • Everyone is a tester • Everything proceeds a lot faster when everyone works on one code • Anyone can support and market the code for any price • Zero cost software attracts users! • All the developers write lots of code

  42. Sarnoff’s Law • The value of a network is proportional to the number of its users

  43. Metcalf’s LawNetwork Utility = Users2 • How many connections can it make? • 1 user: no utility • 100,000 users: a few contacts • 1 million users: many on Net • 1 billion users: everyone on Net • That is why the Internet is so “hot” • Exponential benefit

  44. Increased Demand Increase Capacity(circuits & bw) Create new service Lower response time WWW Audio Video Voice! The virtuous cycle of bandwidth supply and demand Standards Telnet & FTP EMAIL

  45. What is the value of combined network when television, telephone, and hand held web devices are added?How do you build a home network infrastructure, platforms, and interface to uses

  46. Another big bang? Internet to TV and audio: The Net, PC meet the TV “milliBill” Settop box HomeCATV Analog/digital cable distribution Ethernet Home network Basic ideas: 1. PC records or plays thru video cable channels. 2. PC “broadcasts” art images, webcams, presentations, videos, DVDs, etc. 3. Ethernet not cable? Video capture PC broadcasts are mixed into home CATV in analog and/or MPEG digital

  47. PCTV a.k.a. MilliBillgUsing PCs to drive large screens e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels Gordon Bell Jim Gemmell Bay Area Research Center Microsoft Research Copyright 1999 Microsoft Corporation

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