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EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM

EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM. EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES ON DEVELOPMENT Osvaldo Feinstein 9 February 2012. Evaluating the impact of climate change policies on development. Themes 1. Clarifications concerning evaluating impact,

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EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM

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  1. EUROPEAN ENVIRONMENTAL FORUM EVALUATING THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE POLICIES ON DEVELOPMENT Osvaldo Feinstein 9 February 2012

  2. Evaluatingtheimpact of climatechangepoliciesondevelopment Themes 1. Clarifications concerning evaluating impact, climate change policies and development 2. Expected results from these evaluations 3. Evaluation questions and methods 4. Useful resource materials

  3. Evaluating impact • A fundamentalist view: IE is, and only is, evaluation using Randomized Control Trials • A pragmatic view: positive and negative, primary and secondary long term effects produced by a development intervention, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended (OECD glossary)

  4. Impact and the results chain • Resultschain INPUTS  OUTPUTS  OUTCOMES  IMPACTS • Processes, activities and context • Non-linearitiesand feedbackloops

  5. Climate Change Policies (CCP) • Policies to mitigate or adapt to climate change • Innovative policies (risk and uncertainty) • Explicit CCP and implicit CCP (unintended effects on climate change of non-CCPs)

  6. Adaptation and Mitigation ADAPTATION Actions that people, countries and societies take to adjust to climate change that actually occurred, or whose occurrence is anticipated (reactive & anticipatory adaptation) Responses to actual or anticipated shifts in climate e.g., changing crops MITIGATION Actions reducing the chances that adaptation will be required Preventive actions, e.g., GHG emission reductions When mitigation fails or is too late, adaptation is needed Evaluating the impact, efficiency and sustainability of A & M

  7. Community of Practice Community of practice for the evaluation of climate change and development (supported by the GEF Evaluation Office) http://www.climate-eval.org/?q=home Follow-up of the International Conference on Evaluating Climate Change and Development http://www.thegef.org/gef/eo_office

  8. On the Concept of Development Development as freedom (Amartya Sen) Development as opportunities and empowerment (N. Stern) 3. Sustainable development

  9. Growth, Development & Climate Change • Frequent focus: GROWTH  CLIMATE CHANGE • GROWTH, even SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, is different from DEVELOPMENT • Our focus: CCPOLICIES  DEVELOPMENT

  10. Expected results from evaluating CC policies on Development 1. More effective and efficient pro-development evidence based climate change policies 2. Evaluation capacity development through learning-by-doing

  11. Evidence-based vs Fundamentalism Climate change fundamentalism negationism: nothing needs to be done (denial) catastrophism: nothing can be done (alarmism) voluntarism : everything can be done Pragmatic approach possibilism: something can/must be done Evidence-based climate change policies evaluation as a source of evidence

  12. Questions that evaluation suggests and that should contribute to answer • Which climate change policies led to the highest net development impact in which contexts and why? • How can evaluation contribute to the design and implementation of CCPs to enhance their positive effects on development? • ?

  13. Onevaluationmethods • A pluralisticapproach, consistentwiththepragmaticdefinition of impactevaluation • Models, triangulation, application of evaluationcriteria, cost-benefitanalysis, costeffectivenessanalysis, causal chain, theory of changeortheorybasedevaluation • Meta-analysis, synthesisreviews(3iE)

  14. Makingassumptionsexplicit Assumptionsconcerning Incentives Capacities Adoption Risk Uncertainty Sustainability

  15. Key message on evaluation methods Choosing methods and/or techniques that are: • Fit for purpose • Fit for task • Fit for resources • Fit for circumstances (“Horses for courses”)

  16. Circumstances • Purpose of the evaluation • Available capacities • Type of intervention • Budget constraint • Deadline • Data availability Bottom line: Fit for circumstances

  17. Useful resources • US GAO “Designing Evaluations” 2012 Revision • WB Impact Evaluation Handbook (2011) • Network of Networks for Impact Evaluation (NONIE) “Impact Evaluations and Development” (2009) • New Directions for Evaluation (2009)

  18. Some additional useful resources • Climate change evaluations by the WB IEG • WDR (2011) and HDR (2010) on climate change • “Evaluating Climate Change and Development”09 • Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change 06 • International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3iE) • Bert Metz (2010) “Controlling Climate Change” http://www.controllingclimatechange.info/ControllingClimateChange_by_BertMetz.pdf

  19. The end? Thank you! ofeinstein@yahoo.com

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