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Andrea Alden Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission

Andrea Alden Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index. Relative vulnerabilities of some SGCN to climate change. Defenders Partnership: Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI). Exposure Temperature and moisture

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Andrea Alden Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission

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  1. Andrea Alden Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission

  2. NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index Relative vulnerabilities of some SGCN to climate change

  3. Defenders Partnership: Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) • Exposure • Temperature and moisture • Indirect exposure • SLR, barriers, land use • Species sensitivity • Dispersal ability • Sensitivity to change in temp and precipitation • Habitat specificity • Genetic factors • Dispersal, niche, disturbance • Diet, genetics, … • Response • Range, protected areas Glick et al. 2011

  4. All photos courtesy of en.wikipedia.org

  5. CCVI: select SGCN scores Extremely Vulnerable Highly Vulnerable Moderately Vulnerable Not Vulnerable/Presumed Stable Not Vulnerable/Increase Likely

  6. NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool Relative vulnerabilities of our species to climate change then • Habitat modeling • And Future land-use scenarios Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses (SEVA)

  7. Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses • 6 focal species • 2 birds – least tern & short-tailed hawk • 2 reptiles – Atlantic salt marsh snake & America crocodile • 2 mammals – Florida panther & Key deer

  8. Future Land-Use Scenarios • 50 years into the future • 2010, 2040, and 2060 • Scenarios varied across 4 dimensions: • Climate change represented by sea level rise • Changes in human population represented by urbanization • Land & water planning policies represented by infrastructure expansion • Availability of public resources for conservation

  9. Future Land-Use Scenarios

  10. Scenario Dimensions & Future Scenarios • Scenario B – best case • Scenario E – middle • Scenario C – worst case

  11. SEVA ProcessAmerican Crocodile Orientation

  12. SEVA Process • 3 future land use scenarios + habitat models = impact maps

  13. Conceptual modeling NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment tool Relative vulnerabilities of our species to climate change Future land-use scenarios And Habitat and modeling Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses (SEVA) next Potential adaptation strategies And Locations to implement Added a spatial component

  14. Conceptual Modeling

  15. Adaptation Strategy Map

  16. Obstacles & Lessons Learned • Good to have two methods • Different assumptions/caveats • Different data & uncertainties • Comparison of results • Modeling changes in coastal areas is more difficult and time consuming • Models of vegetation change and succession under climate change is needed • Working with experts takes time but brings collaboration and buy-in

  17. Andrea.Alden@MyFWC.com www.MyFWC.com/wildlifelegacy

  18. Adaptation Strategies • 1. Room to move strategies • Fill data gaps on vegetational and species responses • Habitat maintenance & improvement • 2. Competing with neighbors strategies • Research effects of roads & other barriers, potential mitigation options • Work w/ private landowners to conserve landscape features • 3. Surrounded on all sides strategies • Most difficult to address • Continue filling data gaps on species dynamics • Actively manage available habitat to bolster populations • Identify and conserve corridors

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