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Andrea Alden Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission

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morey
20 diapositives · 1.6K Views · Jul 27, 2014

Andrea Alden Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission. NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index. Relative vulnerabilities of some SGCN to climate change. Defenders Partnership: Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI). Exposure Temperature and moisture

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Andrea Alden Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission
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  1. Andrea Alden Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission

  2. NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index Relative vulnerabilities of some SGCN to climate change

  3. Defenders Partnership: Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) • Exposure • Temperature and moisture • Indirect exposure • SLR, barriers, land use • Species sensitivity • Dispersal ability • Sensitivity to change in temp and precipitation • Habitat specificity • Genetic factors • Dispersal, niche, disturbance • Diet, genetics, … • Response • Range, protected areas Glick et al. 2011

  4. All photos courtesy of en.wikipedia.org

  5. CCVI: select SGCN scores Extremely Vulnerable Highly Vulnerable Moderately Vulnerable Not Vulnerable/Presumed Stable Not Vulnerable/Increase Likely

  6. NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Index tool Relative vulnerabilities of our species to climate change then • Habitat modeling • And Future land-use scenarios Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses (SEVA)

  7. Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses • 6 focal species • 2 birds – least tern & short-tailed hawk • 2 reptiles – Atlantic salt marsh snake & America crocodile • 2 mammals – Florida panther & Key deer

  8. Future Land-Use Scenarios • 50 years into the future • 2010, 2040, and 2060 • Scenarios varied across 4 dimensions: • Climate change represented by sea level rise • Changes in human population represented by urbanization • Land & water planning policies represented by infrastructure expansion • Availability of public resources for conservation

  9. Future Land-Use Scenarios

  10. Scenario Dimensions & Future Scenarios • Scenario B – best case • Scenario E – middle • Scenario C – worst case

  11. SEVA ProcessAmerican Crocodile Orientation

  12. SEVA Process • 3 future land use scenarios + habitat models = impact maps

  13. Conceptual modeling NatureServe’s Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment tool Relative vulnerabilities of our species to climate change Future land-use scenarios And Habitat and modeling Spatially Explicit Vulnerability Analyses (SEVA) next Potential adaptation strategies And Locations to implement Added a spatial component

  14. Conceptual Modeling

  15. Adaptation Strategy Map

  16. Obstacles & Lessons Learned • Good to have two methods • Different assumptions/caveats • Different data & uncertainties • Comparison of results • Modeling changes in coastal areas is more difficult and time consuming • Models of vegetation change and succession under climate change is needed • Working with experts takes time but brings collaboration and buy-in

  17. Andrea.Alden@MyFWC.com www.MyFWC.com/wildlifelegacy

  18. Adaptation Strategies • 1. Room to move strategies • Fill data gaps on vegetational and species responses • Habitat maintenance & improvement • 2. Competing with neighbors strategies • Research effects of roads & other barriers, potential mitigation options • Work w/ private landowners to conserve landscape features • 3. Surrounded on all sides strategies • Most difficult to address • Continue filling data gaps on species dynamics • Actively manage available habitat to bolster populations • Identify and conserve corridors