National Centers for Environmental Prediction Status of UCAR Review October 15, 2010

1. National Centers for Environmental PredictionStatus of UCAR ReviewOctober 15, 2010 “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

2. Overview • Accounting • Process Timeline • High Level Brief developed for DUS • Cross Cutting Themes • Some Gaps • Next Steps

3. Accounting Recommendations by Center

4. Process/Timeline • External review by UCAR conducted in 2009 • Preliminary reports were presented at the AMS meeting in Jan 2010 • Final reports were completed and received in Q2G3 FY10 • Comprehensive action plans have been developed by each center and monitored/tracked by the NCEP Director • NCEP Director/Center Directors have briefed NWS AA on review findings, recommendations and proposed actions • Implementation of short term actions have begun and will be the focus of the NCEP FY11 Annual Operating Plan meeting in August 2010 • NCEP reported to UCAR committee in September 2010 • Strategy for meeting medium and longer range actions will be developed at NCEP strategic planning meeting in Oct 2010 • NCEP will update UCAR representatives at the AMS meeting in Jan 2011 and annually thereafter

5. Highest Priorities • 1. Maintain adequate resources to provide the highest level of service • Ensure adequate high performance computing capability to meet operational demand • Work through OCIO to plan and procure future systems • - Leverage resources through partnerships (NOS, ARL, DoD, DOE) • - Use other High Performance Computing facilities to meet non-operational requirements to the maximum extent possible (Site A and Site B) • Continually enhance the Test Beds to accelerate research into operations • Aviation Weather Testbed accelerating Research to Operations with Next Gen • Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Experiment improving QPF forecasts • Enhance IT Security across the centers to meet increasing threats and requirements • Identify ways to reduce soft funding and increase the ratio of base to soft funds • - Develop Deputy and Operations Officer Positions in the Office of the Director • 2. Enhance products and services, especially to meet the needs of NWS field offices • Higher-resolution, more accurate, timely, reliable, and probabilistic forecasts • - heavy precipitation and other gridded weather elements out through at least 7 days

6. Highest Priorities • 3. Continually improve efficiency, maintain focus, and remain current • Develop standardize approach to processes (i.e. model implementation strategy, Earth Systems Modeling Framework • Evaluate product suite for currency and retire/replace legacy products • Develop and continually consult an advisory board made up of community reps • Conduct periodic review every 5 yrs by independent council • 4. Strengthen partnerships, collaboration and communication within NCEP, NOAA and the external community • Climate Prediction Center’s role in the development of the Climate Service • NCEP Centers hosting community forums to ensure customer feedback • Data Assimilation Plan (NCEP, ESRL, NASA, OU) • Moving NCEP facility to College Park to take advantage of UMD co-location and accommodate visiting scientists • Increased interaction and partnering between NCO and EMC through joint project sponsoring and cultural evolution • Foster collaboration through international partnerships

7. Identifying Cross Cutting Themes (example tracking)

8. Aviation Weather Center Completed Short Term Medium Long Cross Cut Need OD Not Started

9. Aviation Weather Center Cont. Completed Short Term Medium Long Cross Cut Need OD Not Started

10. Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Completed Short Term Medium Long Cross Cut Need OD Not Started

11. Hydromet. Prediciton Center Cont. Completed Short Term Medium Long Cross Cut Need OD Not Started

12. Cross Cutting Themes • Resourcing • Ratio of base to soft funds (bring value) • Challenges • Additional key positions (Dep Dir, OPSO, WCM(HPC), SOO(OPC)) • Testbed funding • IT security • NCS demands on CPC • High Performance Computing Systems (forecasting future requirements) • IT Security • Increased demand in IT administrators • Ever increasing demands with constant resources • NCO to provide support through a shared resource (traveling ITSO) • Centralization of IT security to the maximum extent • Have we done enough?

13. Cross Cutting Themes • Customers • Strengthen working relationships/communications/collaboration • Relevance and responsiveness • Leverage nationally sponsored NWS outreach efforts • Ensure appropriate product suite (retire legacy products) • Forecast verification • Visiting scientist program • Test Beds • Clarify the structure • Funding

14. NCEP “GAPS” and Medium / Long Term UCAR Action Plans Customers and Partners

15. NCEP “GAPS” and Medium / Long Term UCAR Action Plans Customers and Partners

16. Impact of NCEP “GAPS” on NGSP, NCS and NWS Goals Customers and Partners

17. NCEP “GAPS” • Products and Services • Maintain relevance with changing and ever increasing customer demands • Product formats and better delivery (GIS) • Better web presence/organization (see NASA) • Week 2 development team • Sector demand and support (growth areas) • Information Systems • Requirements vs resources for CCS (always a gap) • Maintaining appropriate level of qualified personnel (SPAs)

18. NCEP “GAPS” • Science and Technology • Keeping up with advancements • People and Organizational Culture • Keeping people in the process • Rewarding • Training (keep up with attrition with qualified personnel) • Business Processes • Cultural changes • Verification

19. Next Steps • Develop clear paths for items which haven’t been fully addressed/developed (this round of review) • Address actions which have cross-cutting themes and/or need additional support or guidance from OD or HQ • Continually update action plans have most current plans for UCAR update prepared by Jan 10, 2011 • Continue progress in achieving the actions developed as a result of UCAR recommendations • Report out to UCAR at the annual AMS meeting in Jan

20. Discussion

21. Backup

22. Ocean Prediction Center Completed Short Term Medium Long Cross Cut Need OD Not Started

23. Storm Prediction Center Completed Short Term Medium Long Cross Cut Need OD Not Started

24. Storm Prediction Center Cont. Completed Short Term Medium Long Cross Cut Need OD Not Started

25. UCAR Overview of NCEP • NCEP is realizing its vision “NCEP as a whole” being greater than the sum of its parts • NCEP is performing well in its primary mission; providing products and services in support of protecting life and property in a timely manner • Many of NCEP’s service centers are recognized as world leaders • Interactions between the centers are increasing, but improvement is needed (Focus on EMC/NCO model implementation process) • Panel commends the strong leadership of the NCEP Director and staff • NCEP’s mission is unique and recognized as a “national resource”; as such, has the opportunity to leverage this leadership and respect to achieve higher goals