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Economic Briefing 4 August 2007

Economic Briefing 4 August 2007. Presentation Outline. Indicators of selected countries Malaysia’s key economic indicators MIER 2Q07 Surveys Near-term outlook. GDP Growth (%). Domestic Investment (% of GDP). Export Growth (%). CAB as % of GDP. FDI Inflows. US$ billion.

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Economic Briefing 4 August 2007

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  1. Economic Briefing 4 August 2007

  2. Presentation Outline Indicators of selected countries Malaysia’s key economic indicators MIER 2Q07 Surveys Near-term outlook

  3. GDP Growth (%)

  4. Domestic Investment (% of GDP)

  5. ExportGrowth (%)

  6. CAB as % of GDP

  7. FDI Inflows US$ billion

  8. Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)

  9. Foreign Reserves (US$ billion)

  10. Inflation Rate (%) 58.5% 20.5%

  11. Interest Rate (6m FD,%)

  12. Non-Performing Loans (3-months arrears)

  13. Unemployment Rate (%)

  14. Real Effective Exchange Rate (2000=100)

  15. % Change in Stock Indices as at 11th July’07, since Jan’07

  16. Debt Service Ratio (% of exports)

  17. Relative Productivity

  18. MALAYSIA’s KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS • Leading index • External trade • Exports to major partners • Import sources • Industrial Production Index (IPI) • Foreign direct investments (BOP) • Monetary indicators • Inflation • Exchange rates • External reserves • Unemployment • Productivity performance • MIER survey trends

  19. Composite Indices & GDP Growth %change yoy

  20. Malaysia: Exports, Imports and Trade Balance

  21. Imports by Category

  22. Manufactured goods E&E Oil+LNG Palm oil External Trade • exports dominated mainly by manufactures, especially E&E • export structure remain unchanged but value-added have increased Source: DOSM

  23. USA Singapore EU Japan China Exports to Major Partners • traditional markets for Malaysia: US, Singapore, EU and Japan • Singapore, EU and Japan show declining market share • China account for an increasing share of Malaysia’s exports Source: DOSM

  24. Foreign Direct Investments • FDI (from BOP), although increasing, still far from pre-crisis levels • Malaysian investment abroad rising • portfolio flows remain volatile Source: DOS

  25. Total Approvals (LHS) USA (RHS) Japan UK Singapore China Foreign Approvals in Manufacturing • total of 571 projects approved in 2006, level of FDI approved highest to date • foreign investments amount >RM20 billion (43.9% of total) • Japan largest source of investments Source: MIDA

  26. Foreign Approvals by Country, Jan-May’07 Source: MIDA

  27. Foreign Approvals by Industry, Jan-May’07 Source: MIDA

  28. Malaysia: Industrial Production Index (IPI)

  29. Inflation Rate • inflation soften following peak of 4.8% in March’06 due to higher price of fuel • core inflation also trending generally lower Source: BNM

  30. Monetary Indicators • Moderate growth in M1, M2 and M3 Source: BNM

  31. RM vs. Major Currencies Source: BNM

  32. RM vs. Regional Currencies Source: BNM

  33. Current Account Balance current account surplus still sizeable, at 17.8% of GNP in 2006

  34. Foreign Reserves • international reserves at a sizable US$98.4 billion in June 2007 • equivalent to nearly 8.9 months of retained imports & 8.7 times the short-term external debt Source: BNM

  35. Unemployment Rate • employment rose an average of 3.3%pa with 1.6 million jobs created between 2001-2005 Source: DOSM

  36. Productivity Performance • favourable productivity growth thanks to continuous efforts to enhance productivity and high capacity utilisation in both domestic and export-oriented industries Source: NPC

  37. Malaysia: Total Loan and Deposit Growth

  38. Malaysia: Loans Approved & Disbursed

  39. Household Loans to GDP (%)

  40. Real Interest Rate (%) Inflation 3mFD

  41. NPLs/Total Loans Ratio& Capital Adequacy Ratio

  42. Malaysia: External Debt RM billion

  43. MIER 2Q07 INDICES

  44. The Business Conditions Index(BCI)

  45. Business Conditions Surveyon firmer footing points • BCI chalked an impressive 16.6 points to 122.1 • uptick in sales • pickup in output activities • higher local orders • turnaround in export orders

  46. BCI and Quarterly GDP Growth % GDP growth Quarter BCI GDP GDP y-o-y q-q 2Q07 122.1 1Q07 105.5 5.3 -1.9 4Q06 107.2 5.7 0.5 3Q06 107.8 6.0 3.9 2Q06 102.4 6.1 2.7 1Q06 102.5 6.0 -2.8 4Q05 100.5 5.2 1.8 3Q05 102.7 5.3 3.8 2Q05 106.0 4.1 2.4 1Q05 104.1 6.1 -2.9 BCI

  47. Productionshifting to higher gear % responded ‘better’ • 44% increased production, higher than 26% in 1Q07 • output of wood and wood-based products continue to accelerate (75% reported increase) • increases also observed in food and beverage, textiles and apparel, paper and paper products, chemicals and chemical products, non-metallic products, basic metal and metallic products

  48. Capacity Utilisationup a notch % responding positively • capacity utilisation averaged 80.4 from the previous reading of 79.6 • industries like paper and paper products, non-metallic products maintained capacity between 81-100% • chemicals and chemical products, rubber and rubber-based products also shifted to near-full capacity

  49. Capital Investmentgoing strong % responding positively • 28% reveal higher investments, edging up from 22% in 1Q07 • firms from food and beverage, textiles and apparel committed more funds for capital investment

  50. Inventoriessmooth flow • 19% reported fatter stockpiles, lower than 27% in previous quarter • stocks running lower for textiles and apparel and plastics and plastic products % responded ‘higher’ stocks

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