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THE BUSINESS CYCLE by Harvard Business Review

Thai Econ under The PM. Y-Luck (Within The First 100 Days & After Onwards ) Super Leadership NIP’s Plus-3 Version-1 (Sep-2011) By ดร . ธรรมนูญ อานันโทไทย At Chularongkorn University Saturday of September 17, 2011 Time 10:00am to Noon Time. 1.

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THE BUSINESS CYCLE by Harvard Business Review

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  1. Thai Econ under The PM. Y-Luck (Within The First 100 Days & After Onwards )Super Leadership NIP’s Plus-3Version-1 (Sep-2011)Byดร. ธรรมนูญ อานันโทไทยAt Chularongkorn UniversitySaturday of September 17, 2011Time 10:00am to Noon Time 1

  2. THE BUSINESS CYCLE by Harvard Business Review TOP OF THE BOOM DURING THE LAST 160 YEARS Rising Real Estate Values 12 Easier Money 11 1 Rising Interest Rates Rising Overseas Reserves 10 2 Falling Share Prices Rising Commodity Prices 9 3 Falling Commodity Prices 8 4 Falling Overseas Reserves Rising Share Prices 7 5 Tighter Money Falling Interest Rates 6 Falling Real Estate Values DEPTH OF THE RECESSION

  3. Contents: Topic #1: Good Old Days from The NIPs !! Topic #2: The Outside-In during the First 100 Days of The PM. Y-Luck 15-Minutes Intermission at 11:10am Topic #3: The days (?) after the First 100 Days of The PM. Y-Luck Topic #4: Wrap-Up with Your Q & A 3

  4. Topic #1 The Good Old Days From The NIPs !!! 4

  5. Farmer vs. Hunter 2008-9 2010-11 2008-9 2010-11

  6. Balance Sheet (Bt.)(Statement of Financial Position) 6

  7. Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) “Versus” Internal Rate of Revenue (IRR) IRR Return required by Lenders (______%) Debt Proposal (_______%) Return required by Shareholders (________%) Equity Proposal (________%) _______% ______% Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) =_______% IRR (_____%) > WACC (_____%) 7

  8. ROIC & ROCE (B) Profitability Performance (Gross Margin, EBI- Margin, & NP-Margin) (A) Assets Performance (WAC & NFA) (C) Company Performance (ROA & ROE)

  9. Bottom Line of Topic #1:SET-Comparison of Listing Performance 9

  10. Topic #2 The Outside-In during the first 100 days of The PM. Y-Luck 10

  11. Money Making The World Moving! 11 Source: Modify from Tisco Research

  12. Who’s most in debt?US.$Trilion Who owns the US. Debt? (US.$Trillion) (1)US.Fed & US Gov.= $6.0 (2) US. States+Private=$3.8 (3) China = $1.1 (4) Japan = $0.9 (5) Other Foreign = $2.4 (Our BoT = $0.187) Total (1) thru (5) = $14.27Tr. (99.76 of USA’s GDP) Source: Fortune/Aug. 15, 2011

  13. Econ Trouble on URO Zone (Versus USA & Japan)

  14. ***QE #1*** Timing 2006-2008 Amount US$1.7Tr. Write Down MBS (Subprime) USD Shortage & USD Swap US$1.05Tr. up over US. Fed No Impact Velocity of Money *** QE #2 *** Timing Q4/2010 – Q2/2011 Amount US$600B. US$75B/Month Primary Auction to US. Treasury Secondary Market Auction as well Target Increasing Money Velocity Support Real Sectors US.Quantitative Easing 1 & 2 Questions: (1) QE = World Export Inflation? (2) Inflation: Supply Shock or Demand Pull (3) Assets Class: Equities and/or Commodities, (4) Who will get benefit on QEs? & (5) Will we ever have QE#3? if yes, then how much?, when? & benefit to whom?

  15. USA versus China on Q4/2010

  16. The Creation of Worldwide Liquidity 16

  17. Bottom Line of Topic #2: Futures, Forward, Options & SWAP 17 Making MoneyLosing Money

  18. 15-Minute of Intermission at 10:10am Giant of Wat Arun Giant of Wat Pra Kaew 18

  19. Topic #3 The days (?) after The first 100 days of The PM. Y-Luck 19

  20. Balance Sheet (Bt.)The PM. Taksin “versus” The PM. Y-Luck 20

  21. BCG-Matrix

  22. 14-Local Business Clusters(High-Potential Outlook since PM.Taksin’s Regime) (1) Foods (2) Textile & Garment (3) Shoes & Leather (4) Wood Products & Furniture (5) Medicine & Chemical Products (6) Rubber & Products (7) Plastic Products (8) Ceramics & Glasses (9) Electrical & Electronics Appliances (10) Motor Vehicles & Auto Parts (11) Jewelry & Accessories (12) Iron & Steel (13) Petrochemical Products (14) Pulp & Paper 22

  23. RELATIVE MARKET SHARE (CASH GENERATION) Asian Market 1. Chicken 2. Computer Parts 3. Plastic Pellet 4. Hot-Rolled Steel 5. Air Conditioner 6. Pulp & Paper World Market 1. Plastic 2. Truck 3. Computer 4. Iron HIGH LOW  ? HIGH HIGH (CASH USAGE) Fruit Cans MARKET GROWTH RATE Shoes World Market 1. Shrimp 2. Jewelry 3. Ceramic 4. Garment 5. Leather Bag World Market 1. Drug & Medicine 2. Synthetic Fabrics 3. Wood Furniture 4. Chicken Cash Cows LOW Asian Market 1. Medical 2. Furniture 3. Plastic 4. Jewelry DOGS LOW Asian Market Shrimp LOW HIGH 23

  24. Relation of Income Flows and Cash Out Flows from Operations, Investing and Financing at Various Stages of Product Life Cycle Revenues Introduction Growth Maturity Decline Net Income + 0 Introduction Growth Maturity Decline - Cash Flows Operations + Investing 0 Introduction Growth Maturity Decline Financing -

  25. Balance Sheet (Bt.)(Statement of Financial Position) 25

  26. Bottom Line of Topic #3 Farmer vs. Hunter 2008-9 2010-11 2008-9 2010-11

  27. Topic #4Wrap-Up+ Q & A tommy@merchant.co.th Good Luck to NIP-Plus-3 September 17, 2011 27

  28. Cash Market (Equity & Debt) Listed Shares No Time Limit No Need Deposit (Except Net Settlement but T+3) ROI on Dividend + Rights Offering + Capital Gain Futures Market Contract by the Underling Assets (Commodity & Derivative Financial Products, Metals, ect.) A Period of Time Limit Margin System 10% of Minimum Deposit Mostly 30% Additional Deposit During Last Week Before Delivery Month Upto 50% or More During Delivery Month ROI on Maximum Capital Gain Compare Between Cash Market “versus” The Futures Market

  29. Question you should ask me! Worldwide Conditions: Deflationary Tendencies Worldwide Commodities Regional Ideas & Strategy Commodity Bull Market Spot & Futures Trend USD-Discount QE3??? EUR, JPY & GBP …..? ??? ??? Local Approach: Inflationary Target (BoT) Low Interest Rate (MoF) Fiscal vs. Monetary Policy Local Interest Trend Fixed Income vs. Equity Futures & Options Investment-FIF Assets Allocation ???? ????

  30. ดร.ธรรมนูญ อานันโทไทยtommy@merchant.co.thMerchant Partners Securities Public Company Limited ใช้ชีวิตเรียนหนังสือตั้งแต่ระดับมัธยมศึกษา (High School) จนจบปริญญาเอก (Ph.D.) ในสหรัฐอเมริกา เป็นเวลาติดต่อนานกว่า 16 ปี เมื่อกลับมาประเทศไทย ได้ทำงานในแวดวงตลาดทุน (Capital Market) เป็นเวลากว่า 26 ปี โดยมีตำแหน่งครั้งสุดท้ายคือ President & CEO ของบริษัทหลักทรัพย์ DBS Thai Danu Securities Ltd. อันเป็นสถาบันการเงินในกลุ่ม Temasek & DBS Group ของสิงคโปร์ที่ใหญ่ที่สุดในเอเชียใต้ ต่อมา Early Retirement ได้รับเลือกให้ดำรงตำแหน่ คณบดีคณะบริหารธุรกิจ มหาวิทยาลัยธุรกิจบัณฑิตย์ ปีการศึกษา 2544-45 and Completed 5-IOD Courses by Thai-Institute of Directors: DAP-48/2005, ACP-10/2005, DCP-70/2006, RCP-14/2006, & UFS-7/2007. **ปัจจุบัน – (Present Year - 2011)** (1) Chairman, Board of Directors of Vintage Engineering Public Co. Ltd. (VTE) (2) Vice Chairman & Audit Chairman, Board of Directors of IFS-Capital (Thailand) Public Company Limited-IFST (An IFS Group of Singapore)/IFS (3) Vice Chairman & Audit Chairman, Board of Directors of Better World Green Plc. (BWG) (4) Chairman of The Audit Committee & Director, Eastern Printing Public Co. Ltd. (EPCO) (5) Executive Director & Chief Economist, Merchant Partners Public Co. Ltd. (SET-Broker #21) (6) Director & Audit Committee of Property Perfect Public Co. Ltd. (PF) (7) กรรมการในสายงานเศรษฐกิจของสภาอุตสาหกรรมแห่งประเทศไทย (Federation of Thai Industries) (8) Ex-Board ในตลาดสินค้าเกษตรล่วงหน้าแห่งประเทศไทย (Agricultural Futures Exchange of Thailand-AFET) (9) Member of The Audit Committee-Board of Trustees of Bangkok University (10 Independent Director of Thai Union Frozen Products Public Company Ltd. (TUF) 30

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