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RA Framework

RA Framework. Risk Assessment. ‘Area of concern’…. Every risk assessment has a geographic dimension. You need to explicitly identify the geographic area for which the assessment pertains must be clearly defined. Big enough, but not too big. Case studies’ experience…. Area of concern.

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RA Framework

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  1. RAFramework

  2. RiskAssessment

  3. ‘Area of concern’… • Every risk assessment has a geographic dimension • You need to explicitly identify the geographic area for which the assessment pertains • must be clearly defined • Big enough, but not too big

  4. Case studies’ experience… • Area of concern

  5. ESBW Case Study – area of concern • Province of Quebec • But… • UAF 09-751 • opportunity to be more quantitative • satisfy DSS evaluation goal

  6. RiskAssessment

  7. Pre-assessment • Quick assessment (elements of a full assessment but done in less detail) • Determines whether immediate action is needed or whether the full assessment should continue • Requires relatively little information • Likelihood and impacts – but quick & dirty

  8. Pre-assessment – for IAS • Does the pest meet the criteria for a quarantine pest? • What is the potential for the pest to be associated with the commodity or pathway? • What is the potential impact of the pest? • How likely is introduction and establishment of the pest if no mitigation measures are applied to the pathway(s)?

  9. Quarantine Pest • A pest of potential economic importance to the area endangered thereby and not yet present there, or present but not widely distributed and being officially controlled [ISPM No. 5, 2006]

  10. RiskAssessment

  11. Risk Risk Assessment • Risk = Likelihood X Consequences • What bad thing could happen? • Categorizing the pest • How likely is it to happen? • Potential introduction & spread • How bad will it be? • Potential economic & environmental effects

  12. Risk • Risk = Likelihood X Consequences • Likelihood • Potential • Probability • Quantitative or qualitative • Relative possibility of the event

  13. Risk • Risk = Likelihood X Consequences • Economic and environmental impacts • Effects • Consequences • Quantitative or qualitative • Relative magnitude of the event

  14. Qualitative pest risk assessments: Non-numerical terms Descriptive words Highly adaptable Most commonly used method Challenge to be consistent & use terms that are interpreted consistently by others “The pest is highly likely to be present on conifer seedlings imported from ….” “The pest is expected to have negligible effects on market sales” “Outbreaks will be as frequent and serious as outbreaks of the native pest….” Qualitative vs. quantitative pest risk assessments

  15. Quantitative pest risk assessments: Numerical terms Measurable Assigns values to variables Programs for modelling likelihood or impacts (e.g., @Risk, Crystal Ball, ModelRisk) Challenge to obtain data or defend selection of values for variables “The pest is expected to be present at detectable levels in 99 seed shipments out of 100” “There is an 85% chance of losses equalling or exceeding 1.2 million m3 of softwood growing stock per annum” “Outbreaks are projected to occur once in every 50 years 95 times out of 100” Qualitative vs. quantitative pest risk assessments

  16. Choosing the right methods • Each method has pros & cons • May use a combination of methods to address different parts of the assessment • Quantitative to assess likelihood along different pathways • Qualitative to assess impacts • Method selected depends on many variables • Urgency of the issue • Seriousness of the issue • Availability of resources & expertise • Availability of data • Needs of the NPPO • Sensitivity of the issue • Focus this week will be on qualitative pest risk assessment

  17. Pest Host (Habitat) Environment (Ecosystem) Likelihood of occurrence… • Native: outbreak • Alien: establishment

  18. Likelihood of occurrence… Alien: establishment • Perpetuation, for the foreseeable future, of a pest within an areaafter entry(ISPM 5, 2007)

  19. Likelihood of occurrence… Probability of establishment • Collect information from area(s) where pest occurs & in area of concern • Pest information • Environment information • Host information • Compare • Assess probability of establishment

  20. Likelihood of occurrence… Factors to consider… • Availability of suitable hosts, alternate hosts and vectors • Suitability of environment, including biotic & abiotic factors • Control measures • Other characteristics affecting probability of establishment

  21. Are hosts & alternates present? Are habitats available for pest plants? How likely is the pest to find hosts? Are they abundant? Are hosts present in the vicinity of expected entry points? Host information Likelihood of occurrence…

  22. Is the pest adaptable? Has it established/reached OB in other areas? Can it adapt to different climatic or other environmental factors? Can the pest seek out hosts? Is it mobile? Pest information Likelihood of occurrence…

  23. How does the pest reproduce? Does it have a high reproductive capacity? How does it survive adverse conditions? Does it require an alternate host or a vector? Pest information Likelihood of occurrence…

  24. Likelihood of occurrence… Dispersal & spread • Is a vector required for dispersal of the pest? • Is it present in the area of concern? • Is it likely to be introduced? • Are other potential vectors available? • Local and long-distance dispersal • Is it likely to get to the area of concern? • Effects of weather & landscape • Pop’n growth rates

  25. Does the climate in the area of concern differ from that where the pest occurs? How? What climatic factors are critical for the pest’s success? What climatic factors, if any, are limiting? Is the climate suitable for the pest? Will it be able to survive? Will it be able to reproduce? Climate information Likelihood of occurrence…

  26. Likelihood of occurrence… Climate information • Precipitation • Rain, snow, fog …. • Temperature • Seasonal highs and lows, temperature extremes … • Seasonal variation

  27. Soil Hydrology Vegetation Prevailing winds Day length Species interactions Likelihood of occurrence… Other environmental information

  28. Likelihood of occurrence… Cultural practices or Control measures • Would existing practices mitigate risk? • Are there any pest control programs or natural enemies already in the area of concern?

  29. CFIA-ACIA Likelihood of occurrence… Probability of Spread • Means of spread • How? • Rate of spread • How fast? • Magnitude of spread • How far?

  30. Likelihood of occurrence… Rate and Magnitude of Spread • Probability of spread influences • Scale of potential impacts • Urgency of potential responses • Survey design • Potential success of any future control or eradication program

  31. Likelihood of occurrence… Factors influencing spread • Suitability of environment • Biology of the pest • Presence of natural barriers • Intended end use of the commodity • Production / harvesting practices • Vectors • Natural enemies • History elsewhere

  32. CFIA-ACIA Likelihood of occurrence… Factors influencing spread • Suitability of environment • Biology of the pest • Presence of natural barriers • Intended end use of the commodity • Vectors • Natural enemies • History elsewhere

  33. CFIA-ACIA Likelihood of occurrence… Factors influencing spread • Suitability of environment √ • Biology of the pest • Presence of natural barriers • Intended end use of the commodity • Vectors • Natural enemies • History elsewhere

  34. CFIA-ACIA Likelihood of occurrence… Factors influencing spread • Suitability of environment √ • Biology of the pest √ • Presence of natural barriers • Intended end use of the commodity • Vectors • Natural enemies • History elsewhere

  35. CFIA-ACIA Likelihood of occurrence… Factors influencing spread • Suitability of environment √ • Biology of the pest √ • Presence of natural barriers √ • Intended end use of the commodity • Vectors • Natural enemies • History elsewhere

  36. CFIA-ACIA Likelihood of occurrence… Factors influencing spread • Suitability of environment √ • Biology of the pest √ • Presence of natural barriers √ • Intended end use of the commodity • Vectors • Natural enemies • History elsewhere

  37. CFIA-ACIA Likelihood of occurrence… Factors influencing spread • Suitability of environment √ • Biology of the pest √ • Presence of natural barriers √ • Intended end use of the commodity √ • Vectors • Natural enemies √ • History elsewhere

  38. Likelihood of occurrence… Using the Gypsy Moth experience to predict behaviour of other species • Predicting spread of related or similar organisms • Species X is expected to behave much as did Gypsy moth, e.g., another Lymantria species such as nun moth • Comparison with dissimilar organisms • Species Y will spread faster & further than Gypsy moth, e.g., a rust of field crops • Species Z will spread more slowly & less far than Gypsy moth, e.g., a root-feeding nematode

  39. Likelihood of occurrence… • Looking back is easy • Understand why spread occurred as it did • Pest risk assessment looks forward • Much more challenging

  40. Likelihood of occurrence… How to assess spread • Comparative analysis • qualitative • Predictive Models • semi-quantitative or quantitative • Useful information sources • Case histories of comparable pests • Assessments and information from areas where the pest is present • Life history information • Site information • Expert opinion

  41. Likelihood of occurrence… Spread Models • Model Types • Spatial or temporal models • Quantitative or qualitative models • Selecting a model • Fit for purpose • Scale & time are important • Challenges • Subjectivity in selection of parameters • Lack of or contradictory data • Difficult to validate

  42. CFIA-ACIA Likelihood of occurrence… Spread Potential • Means of spread • How? • Rate of spread • How fast? • Magnitude of spread • How far? • Life history • Area of origin factors • PRA Area factors • Human factors • Compare to other pests • Compare to other places

  43. Consequences… Assessing potential economic impact • Determine pest impact in regions where pest occurs already • note whether the pest causes major, minor or no damage • whether the pest causes damage frequently or infrequently • relate this, if possible, to biotic and abiotic effects

  44. Consequences… Assessing potential economic impact • Use information from where pest occurs and compare with that in the PRA area • Assess potential for economic importance • Qualitative, expert judgement • Quantitative, biological & economic techniques/ models

  45. Consequences… Identifying pest effects • Direct effects • Longevity, viability of host plants • Yield, quality • Indirect effects • Market effects, environmental effects and social effects

  46. Consequences… Direct pest effects • Value of the known or potential host plants in RA area • Types, amount and frequency of damage reported in areas where pest is present • Losses reported in areas where pest is present • Biotic factors affecting damage and losses

  47. Consequences… Direct pest effects • Abiotic factors affecting damage and losses • Rate of spread • Rate of reproduction • Control measures, their efficacy and cost • Effect of existing production practices • Environmental effects

  48. Consequences… Indirect pest effects • Effects on domestic and export markets, including effects on export market access • Changes to producer costs or input demands • Changes to domestic or foreign consumer demand for a product resulting from quality changes • Environmental and other undesired effect of control measures

  49. Consequences… Indirect pest effects • Capacity to act as a vector for other pests • Feasibility and cost of eradication and containment • Resources needed for additional research and advice • Environmental effects • Social and other effects

  50. Consequences… Economic impact matrix

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