Hybrid Techniques in Scenario Planning

1. MIS 650Project Seminar Hybrid Techniques Scenario Planning MIS 650 Scenario Planning

2. Definition Scenario Planning (SP) is an attempt to make concrete or more real what is hypothesized about a theory by “telling a story” of a typical case. Because SP combines aspects of case studies (with a “fictional” case) and evaluation and proof of concept (with verbal prototypes), it is a hybrid method. MIS 650 Scenario Planning

3. One Definition Scenario planning is a method for learning about the future by understanding the nature and impact of the most uncertain and important driving forces affecting our future. It is a group process which encourages knowledge exchange and development of mutual deeper understanding of central issues important to the future of your business. The goal is to craft a number of diverging stories by extrapolating uncertain and heavily influencing driving forces. The stories together with the work getting there has the dual purpose of increasing the knowledge of the business environment and widen both the receiver's and participant's perception of possible future events. MIS 650 Scenario Planning

4. One Definition, Cont’d • The method is most widely used as a strategic management tool, but this and similar methods have been used for enabling other types of group discussion about a common future. http://www.well.com/~mb/scenario/ Martin Börjesson  ( mb@well.com ); consultant http://www.futuramb.se/) Scenario Planning is a method of “predicting the future”, but from a knowledge point of view it is an attempt to reduce a multi-factorial “fuzzy” image of the real world and its dynamics to a simplified picture, in other words, a model; doing so enables critique aimed at improvement. MIS 650 Scenario Planning

5. Basic Method • Immersion in the material: understanding the existing state of theory • Development of “stories” or typical “average” cases. • Embellishment of stories so that they become vivid, with markers for players and forces that have names • Discussion and critique MIS 650 Scenario Planning

6. Variants • Crystal Ball Gazing: SP is most commonly used to look at the future by deriving typical “cases of the future.” • Strategic Planning: Attempts to visualize the results of specific strategies • Market Research: Ideas for focus groups to react to. MIS 650 Scenario Planning

7. Dept. of Information Systems Doctoral Program in IS & ND Scenario Planning is a “Qualitative” Method • The data used are not numerical measures but words; the goal is not to prove relationships but to motivate arguments that relationships exist or do not • Relies on interpretation and interaction • Does not depend on amassing large samples, using statistics, or computing or counting things, but assembling cases and provoking discussion MIS 650 Scenario Planning

8. Dept. of Information Systems Doctoral Program in IS & ND “Qualitative” Methods’ Agenda:Increasing the Quality of the Discourse One of the goals is to increase our knowledge by increasing the quality of the discourse The reasoning is thus: Better (more, more relevant, more useful) knowledge requires better theories. These theories arise from the crucible of discussion, debate and discourse. Improving the raw material of this discourse means improving the process of critiquing theories MIS 650 Scenario Planning

9. Dept. of Information Systems Doctoral Program in IS & ND Increasing the Quality of the Discourse Impressions, Thoughts, Felt Ideas Debate, Discussion Dialectic Discourse Expressed Ideas Essential Criticism Higher Quality Ideas Critical Commentary Experience MIS 650 Scenario Planning

10. Details http://www.wholeearthmag.com/ArticleBin/224.html • Derive the scenario question (goal) • Proximate environment (givens) • Driving forces (theory) • Importance, uncertainty (judgment) • Composing the stories • Reality Check (critique) • Implications (“running the model”) MIS 650 Scenario Planning