薛琦台灣證券交易所董事長行政院經濟建設委員會 2009 年 11 月 24 日

庶民經濟 為什麼經濟成長的果實感受不到薛琦台灣證券交易所董事長行政院經濟建設委員會 2009年11月24日

大綱 I. 前言 II. 經濟統計資料的解讀：一種資料，各自表述 III. 亞當‧斯密的智慧 VI. 結語

I. 前言 我們的經濟是好或不好？

II.經濟統計資料的解讀一種資料，各自表述

每人名目NI（新台幣及美元計價） • 2000-2008年實質經濟成長率平均為3.6％。又同期以新台幣 • 計算之每人GNP，每人NI及經貿易條件調整後之每人NI平 • 均成長率各為2.5％，2.1％及1.2％。

貿易條件變動損益、折舊攤提與國民所得 • 扣除貿易條件變動損益與折舊後，國民所得成長有限。 • 貿易條件大幅惡化，與折舊占GDP比例逐年上升是拉大GNP與NI差 • 距的主因。 NT＄billion, (%) 資料來源：行政院主計處。

製造業薪資變動 ％

貿易條件惡化 • 2003年以後進口物價大幅上升，出口物價大致不變，造成貿易條件惡化。基期：2001年＝100

躉售物價基本分類指數 基期：2001年＝100

出口物價基本分類指數 基期：2001年＝100

通貨緊縮 • 2004與08年實質經濟成長率分別為6.15% 與0.06%，但名目成長率僅各達5.19%與-2.33%。兩者差距係物價下跌（含貿易條件改變）所致。 • 2004與2008製造業國內生產毛額實質成長率分別為9.74%與-1.00%，但名目成長率只有5.3%與衰退-10.93%。 • 2004Q3與2009Q2電力及電子機械器材製造業實質生產毛額（按2001年價格計算）分別為新台幣2,644與2,687億元；若按當期價格計算僅為新台幣1,934與1,354億元。即電子電器業廠商按當年財報計算之產值遠低於經物價調整後之實質產出。

3.亞當‧斯密的智慧 • 經濟發展追求的目標亞當．斯密的智慧--國家財富的本質

An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes ofThe Wealth of NationsBy Adam Smith 1723-1790 “The annual labour of every nation is the fund which originally supplies it with all the necessaries and conveniences of life which it annually consumes…”

V. Challenges Ahead

According to Adam Smith “Adam Smith’s economy grows to its ‘full complement of riches’ as permitted by its laws and institutions, and there it rests.” Arthur W. Lewis, 1984 Wages are not high in a stationary country however rich. ‘‘China has been long one of the richest countries in the world. It seems, however, to have been long stationary. Macro Polo, who visited it more than five hundred years ago, describes its cultivation, industry, and populousneess, almost in the same terms …described by travellers in the present times. It had perhaps, even long before his time, acquired that full complements of riches which the nature of its law and institutions permits it to acquire.” ina

According to Adam Smith（continued） “Institutions were overwhelmingly important to both the pace and structure of economic development.” “Favorable impacts of government policies …can be expected only where political institutions limit elite control of assets, land institutions spread a surplus over subsistence widely, and domestic education and skills are well diffused.” Morris and Adelman1989

The Theory of Moral Sentiments1759Chapter I. Of Sympathy • How selfish soever may be supposed, there are evidently some principles in his nature, which interest him in the fortune of others, and render their happiness necessary to him, though he derives nothing from it, expect the pleasure of seeing it. 不管一個人有多麼自私，都有一種很明顯的本性，那就是關心別人的幸福，把別人的快樂當成自己的事，樂於看到它發生，此外別無所求。

Das Adam Smith Problem Question raised by German Historical School How to reconcile altruism in Morality laid out vividly in Moral Sentiments of which the first chapter in on Sympathy, and self interest in Economics which is the core of Wealth of Nations. 道德情操論強調利他主義，尤其該書第一章一開始講的是「論同情」，而「原富」的核心是「自利」，這兩種對人性的描述顯然不一致。

Das Adam Smith Problem Chronology of Smith’s teaching and writing career 1723 born 1737 Glasgow, studying Greek, Latin, Mathematics and Morality 1740 Oxford, studying Philosophy 1748 Edinburgh, lecture 1750 Lecture note on Economics 1751 Glasgow, Professor of Logic; 1752 Professor of Morality 1759 Publishing MS 1761 2nd ed. of MS expanding the part on Politics, Economics and Jurisprudence 1763 Lecturing on “Law, Police, Revenue, and Arms.” 1764 Turing in European continent for 2 years and 8 months with Duke Buccleugh and starting to draft WN

Smith Problem(continued) • 1765.12-66.10 meeting F. Quesnay in Paris • 3rd ed. MS, adding “considerations concerning the first formation of languages” • More information on taxation in America, 4th ed MS 1776Publication of WN 17782nd ed. WN • 5th ed. MS • 3RD ed. WN 1786 adding Introduction and the final edition of WN • Honorable principal of Glasgow U. • intensive revision of MS, adding sec. III, Ch.3 1790 the final 6th ed. of MS

Let Smith Answer the Question • Smith has constantly and interweavingly revised MS and WN. • “In the last paragraph of the present work, I said, that I should in another discourse endeavour to give an account of the general principles of law and government and …in what concerns police, revenue, and arms, and whatever else is the subject of law. In the Enquiry… I have partly executed this promise; at least so far as concerns police, revenue, and arms.” Advertisement, MS. “在本書（第一版）的最後一段，我說，我會在其他地方對法律、政府的一般原則，或是有關警察、歲入、軍備，或其他有關法律的課題，另做說明。在原富一書中我已經部分做到了這項承諾，至少在有關警察、歲入與軍備的部分。”

Let Smith Answer the Question • In Scotland then, moral philosophy covers ethnology, morality, jurisprudence, and politics including political economy. • “What purpose is…the pursuit of wealth?… what are the advantages which we propose by that great purpose of human life which we call bettering our condition? To be observed, to be attended to, to be taken notice of with sympathy, complacency, and approbation …” • 人具有創作的慾望與創新的本能，一個鐘錶匠的故事。 • 追求財富的目的為何？所謂改善我們生活是人生的偉大目的，其意義為何？其實是為了引人注目，受到關切，贏得同情，一種自滿，或獲得認同。

Let Smith Answer the Question • “It is the vanity, not the ease, or the pleasure, which interests us. But vanity is always founded upon the belief of our being the object of attention and approbation”. • “the eye is larger than the belly,… The capacity of his stomach ( the land lord )bears no proportion to the immensity of his desires, and will receive no more than that of the meanest peasant.” • 吸引著我們，讓我們著迷的其實是一種虛幻，不是身心的舒適與愉悅。空虛常來自我們自認為是眾所矚目或認同的對象。 • 眼睛比肚子大。富人的肚量跟他的慾望相比根本不成比例，而他吃的不會比最寒酸的農人多。

Let Smith Answer the Question • “In what constitutes the real happiness of human life, they are in no respect inferiour to those who would seem so much above them. In ease of body and peace of mind, all the different ranks of life are nearly upon a level, and the beggar, who suns himself by the side of the highway, possesses that security which kings are fighting for.” 對於能帶給一個普通人生活樂趣的事物與程度，絕對不會比那些高高在上的人來的遜色。在身體的舒適和心靈平靜上，所有不同階層的人幾乎都在同一水準上。一個在馬路邊曬太陽的乞丐，他所享有的安全卻是國王要費多大的武力才能爭取到的。

財富 Wealth • 窮人之子的寓言:(在追求名利之後），如今他已走到生命的終點，他的身體受到勞苦與病痛的磨損，心總因為憶起過去的千般傷害與失望，而感到懊惱。註4名利不過是瑣碎的小裝飾品，不會強過孩子的百寶箱。 • （失業者）受傷的是他的自尊心。 • 坐在包廂看球與到酒吧看球，都是一項理性選擇？人們隨時都在自我欺騙。註4：斯密絕妙的寓言＜窮人之子＞見於TMS, IV.I.8 [181]。

Let Smith Answer the Question • “When Providence divided the earth among a few lordly masters,…They are led by an invisible hand to make nearly the same distribution of the necessaries of life, which would have been made, had the earth been divided into equal portions among all its inhabitants;” 當上帝將土地分配給幾個地主，…（地主得到佃農耕作收成中最好的部分）佃農分享其餘，這隻冥冥中看不見的手的安排竟然和將土地平均分配給農民得到的結果一樣。

Let Smith Answer the Question • On government: “The man of system, …is apt to be very wise in his own conceit, and is often so enamoured with the supposed beauty of his own ideal plan of government.” 國家當權者很容易自認英明，誇大其事，然後沈迷在他自己所規劃的國家發展美境中。

結語

附錄

ICT產業投資生產關連效果（2004） 註：石油煉製品1999，2001及2004數字分別為 1.17,，1.18及1.18；菸為1.26與1.28與1.31。 電子零配件業1999及2001各當年資本消耗為96,147與219,866百萬元，占總產值之8.76%與 17.97%，占附加價值之28.73%與63.19%。若以160部門與162部門分類中之半導體業觀察，則當年資本消耗分別為69,837百萬元與169,513百萬元，占總產出的13.32%與26.34%，占附加價值的38.95%與83.92%。 扣除食品、飲料、菸、石油練製品等產業。

薛琦台灣證券交易所董事長行政院經濟建設委員會 2009 年 11 月 24 日