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Recent Trends and their implications for updated population projections for Greater Wellington

Recent Trends and their implications for updated population projections for Greater Wellington. James Newell, MERA ( Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) West Plaza, Wellington (NZ) – May 6th, 2014, from 1.30pm A Regional Monitoring Seminar. Seminar Programme. Housekeeping

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Recent Trends and their implications for updated population projections for Greater Wellington

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  1. Recent Trends and their implications for updated population projections for Greater Wellington James Newell, MERA (Monitoring and Evaluation Research Associates Ltd) West Plaza, Wellington (NZ) – May 6th, 2014, from 1.30pm A Regional Monitoring Seminar

  2. Seminar Programme • Housekeeping • GtrWgtn • Population accounts .. • National and Inter-regional compar • Net migration • Natural Increase … • Population history, estimates and projections

  3. Population AccountsOverviewLocal Authorities of the Wellington Region (Based on raw uncorrected census counts, Draft only)

  4. Annual % change in usually resident population – 1981 to 2013 – Wellington TAs

  5. Wgtn Urban TLAs - % change in usually resident population – June Yrs – 2007-2013

  6. Wellington Region – History, Estimates & SNZ Projections ..

  7. Greater Wellington – Population Accounts by Census Period

  8. Hutt City – History, Estimates & SNZ Projections ..

  9. Hutt City – Population Accounts by Census Period

  10. Upper Hutt City – History, Estimates & SNZ Projections ..

  11. Upper Hutt City – Population Accounts by Census Period

  12. Wellington City – History, Estimates & SNZ Projections ..

  13. Wellington City – Population Accounts by Census Period

  14. Porirua City – History, Estimates & SNZ Projections ..

  15. Porirua– Population Accounts by Census Period

  16. Kapiti – History, Estimates & SNZ Projections ..

  17. Kapiti – Population Accounts by Census Period

  18. Wairarapa – History, Estimates & SNZ Projections ..

  19. Wairarapa – Population Accounts by Census Period

  20. Natural Increase components of recent change

  21. Natural Increase (% pa) – NZ Comparisons

  22. Increase due to births (% pa) – NZ Comparisons

  23. Natural Increase (% pa) – Wellington TLAs

  24. Increase due to births (% pa) – Wellington TLAs

  25. Decrease due to deaths (% pa) – Wellington TLAs

  26. Recent Migration Trends (Based on raw uncorrected census counts, Draft only)

  27. Net Migration (% pa) – NZ Comparisons

  28. Net Perm LT International Migration (% pa) – Regional Comparisons

  29. Net Migration (% pa) – Wellington TAs

  30. Estimated Net Intercensal Migration by Age Group (Based on raw uncorrected census counts, Draft only)

  31. Net Migration by age and period Greater Wellington

  32. Net Migration rate by age and period Hutt City

  33. Net Migration rate by age and period Kapiti Coast District

  34. Net Migration rate by age and period Wellington City

  35. Net Migration rate by age and period Carterton District

  36. Look at the stories for by TLA – using net migration rates rather than volumes .. • A couple of features that stand out .. • Porirua shows a much net gain of persons aged 30-49 years than any of the four periods analysed …this corroborates some observations of high recent growth of school rolls for Porirua and other results reported in the Nov and the more recent Feb seminar • Hutt City had a much higher net migration loss of those aged 17 to 27 and a net migration loss of children over 2006-2013 – very different from previous periods ..

  37. Permanent / Long Term International Migration Flows

  38. Greater Wellington – International PLT Migration Flows – since 1990

  39. Greater Wellington – International PLT Migration Flows – recent ..

  40. New Residential Building Consents – 12mth YTD - $m - Wellington Region

  41. Variation and change in Family Composition within Wellington TLAs

  42. Wellington Region – Families in Pvte Dwellings .. trends

  43. Wards in each TLA with highest and lowest % families with children ..

  44. Kapiti Coast District .. % families with children

  45. Wellington City.. % families with children

  46. “Communities” in Eastern Ward - Wellington City.. % families with children

  47. “Communities” of the Kapiti Coast District.. % families with children

  48. Jobs by Industry (Based on raw uncorrected census counts, Draft only)

  49. Brooklyn “Community” (Based on raw uncorrected census counts, Draft only)

  50. Brooklyn “community”

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