Inmate Population Trends and Projections for Platte County Missouri Bill Garnos December 2018Jail Consultant
Purpose • Objective and independent assessment. • Justification. • Transparency. • Documentation. • Provide a BASELINE for current facility planning. • Provide a BASELINE for master planning and criminal justice system planning. • Provide a DATA-DRIVEN means for public education, community support, and citizen engagement.
Report Organization • Review of Past Jail Studies • Criminal Justice Statistical Indicators • Inmate Population Trends • Inmate Population Projections • Conclusion
Past Jail Studies Evaluating Future Inmate Housing Needs by Capt. Randall Pittman, Platte Co. Sheriff’s Office, 2012 ADP will reach operational capacity by 2014, and rated capacity by 2017. Recommended construction of “Futures” area for inmate housing.
Past Jail Studies Feasibility Study / County Law Enforcement, Jail and Judicial Expansion by Goldberg Group Architects (GGA), and Weber & Associates, 2014
2014 GGA Study I. Project Overview II. Assessment of Existing Jail Facility III. Feasibility Analysis of Jail Expansion Options IV. Staffing Plan for the Initial Startup and Operation of an Expanded Platte County Adult Detention Center V. Exhibits (Photos)
2014 GGA Study Platte County needs to expand their jail to accommodate the volume of prisoners that it currently processes and to provide adequate housing for the future growth of its daily inmate population. The current jail is reaching and exceeding capacity and will soon reach the point where it can no longer accommodate the volume of arrestees presented for incarceration without exceeding its rated capacity.
2014 GGA Study • Two different versions of Population Growth Ratefor Platte County. • Three different versions of Need for a Facility, with three different inmate population forecasts. • Revised 07/10/13.
2014 GGA Study GGA Forecast #1 — 20-year forecast shows a projected ADP of 288 inmates in 2032, requiring a jail capacity for 339. Platte County’s projected population growth and its impact on the jail population indicates a need for a 300 – 350 bed jail to accommodate the county’s need for jail space over the next 20 years ... .”
2014 GGA Study GGA Forecast #2 — 20-year forecast shows a projected ADP of 429 inmates in 2033, requiring a jail capacity for 505. [I]t is recommended that Platte County consider a jail facility that can accommodate 450 – 500 inmates.” GGA Forecast #3 — 20-year forecast shows a projected ADP of 542 inmates in 2033, requiring a jail capacity for 637.
2014 GGA Study GGA Forecast #3 Need 637 Jail Beds GGA Forecast #2 Need 505 Jail Beds GGA Forecast #1 Need 339 Jail Beds 20 Years 2033 294 – 542 Inmates 15 Years 2028 265 – 385 Inmates Ten Years 2023 239 – 273 Inmates Five Years 2018 173 – 194 Inmates ADP
Past Jail Studies Report to the Platte County Commission by the Platte County Jail Committee, 2014
Past Jail Studies 1) There is no current need to justify the construction of new jail buildings or expanded facilities for housing inmates. 2) The Commission should engage the architects who designed the current facility as an independent expert. 3) There should be no discussion with KCMO regarding a long term contract. • The Prosecutor offices will require attention. 5) The County should incur no new debt for expanding Futures or for construction and remodeling of administrative offices. 6) The initial expert reports on the jail expansion and county population projections should be discarded.
Criminal JusticeStatistical IndicatorsCrimeArrestsCriminal Case FilingsOther Statistical Indicators
Criminal Case Filings in Circuit Courtin Platte County Felonies Associate Felonies Misdemeanors
InmatePopulation TrendsBookingsAverage Daily Population (ADP)High / Low PopulationInmate Population by Gender
Average Daily Population (ADP) Daily Counts ranged from 175 to 215 Inmates. Average Daily Population (ADP) was 193 Inmates.
State Inmates — Bookings Highest Month: 416 State Inmate Bookings 2013 – 2018 Trend 2008 – 2018 Trend Lowest Month: 223 State Inmate Bookings Since 2016, the Detention Center has averaged 350 state inmate bookings per month.
State Inmates — ADP 5-Year Trend Highest ADP: 181 State Inmates 2008 – 2018 Trend Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 166 state inmates. Lowest ADP: 69 State Inmates
ICE Detainees — Bookings Highest Month: 112 ICE Bookings Since 2016, the Detention Center has averaged 18 ICE bookings per month. 2013 – 2018 Trend Lowest Months: O ICE Bookings 2009 – 2018 Trend
ICE Detainees — ADP Highest ADP: 23 ICE Detainees Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 18 ICE Detainees. Lowest ADP: O ICE Detainees
ICE Detainees — ALOS ICE Detainees — Revenue
Total Inmates — Bookings Highest Month: 429 Total Bookings 2013 – 2018 Trend 2008 – 2018 Trend Since 2016, the Detention Center has averaged 368 total bookings per month. Lowest Month: 225 Total Bookings
Total Inmates — ADP 5-Year Trend Highest ADP: 194 Total Inmates 2008 – 2018 Trend Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 184 Total Inmates. Lowest ADP: 70 Total Inmates
Average Daily Populationby Gender 2008 – 2018 Trend Since 2015, the Detention Center has averaged 81% male inmates and 19% female inmates. Female Inmates Male Inmates
Average Daily PopulationMale Inmates 5-Year Trend Highest ADP: 159 Male Inmates 2008 – 2018 Trend Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 151 Male Inmates. Lowest ADP: 61 Male Inmates
Average Daily PopulationFemale Inmates Highest ADP: 46 Female Inmates 5-Year Trend 2008 – 2018 Trend Since 2017, the Detention Center has had an ADP of 33 Female Inmates. Lowest ADP: 10 Female Inmates
High / Low Inmate Population Range Highest Population: 216 Total Inmates High Trend Low Trend The Detention Center’s high (peak) population averages 11% over the ADP each month. Lowest Population: 56 Total Inmates
High / Low Inmate Population Range 180 Beds 154 Beds
InmatePopulation ProjectionsCounty PopulationInmate Population ProjectionsForecast of Jail Capacity Requirements
Platte County Population Current population was estimated at 101,187 in 2017. Current MARC Projections Historical Census Population
Inmate Population Projections • Not an exact science. No commonly accepted methodology for conducting inmate population projections. • Projections degrade over time. The further out the projections are made, the less reliable they become. • Long range projections should be used for long-term master planning and site planning.
Inmate Population Projections • Inmate projections are different than jail capacity requirements. • Actual inmate population fluctuates (zigzags) above and below the trendline. • Projections are primarily based on historical trends. • Inmate population projections are for facility planning purposes.
Inmate Population Projections • Linear ADP Trends —Projections based on trendlines through the County’s ADP of state inmates. • Rate of Incarceration (ROI) —Projections based on the correlation between the number of state inmates and the County’s population, applied to the County’s population projections. • Average Length of Stay (ALOS) —Projections based on the ALOS for state inmates, applied to the projected number of bookings for state inmates.
Inmate Population Projections Linear ADP Trend Projections • Model 1A. 2008 – 2018 ADP Trend Projections • Model 1B. 5-Year ADP Trend Projections Rate of Incarceration (ROI) Projections • Model 2A. 10-Year Average ROI Projections • Model 2B. 5-Year Average ROI Projections • Model 2C. ROI Trend Projections Average Length of Stay (ALOS) Projections • Model 3A. 10-Year ALOS Projections • Model 3B. 5-Year ALOS Projections • Model 3C. ALOS Trend Projections
Inmate Population Projection Models Models 1B, 2C & 3C Model 1A Models 2A, 2B, 3A & 3B Actual ADP
Inmate Population Projections Reasons for selecting Model 1A to use as the baseline, for facility planning purposes: • Represents the approximate midpoint in the range of results from the eight forecasting models. • Two other key models (Models 2C and 3C) reached similar results. • The results from four models (Models 2A, 2B, 3A, and 3B) are unreasonably low, given other indicators and growth trends. • The highest results (Model 1B) were rejected as a baseline for planning purposes, but reflect the steep increase in the inmate population over the past five years. • Model 1A is based simply on the continuation of Platte County’s own actual state inmate population trend since 2008.
Baseline Inmate Population Projections Ten Years 2028 ADP 241 State Inmates Five Years 2023 ADP 202 State Inmates Actual ADP
Rate of Incarceration (ROI) State Inmates per 1,000 County Population