1 / 100

Lecture 15 – Psyco 350, B1 Fall, 2011

Lecture 15 – Psyco 350, B1 Fall, 2011. N. R. Brown. Outline. 1. Discrepant Partner Reports and the MSP The Discrepancy MSP Evidence: strategy differences & Estimation bias. Two Studies UA undergrads -- Questionnaire Study USA random sample -- Web-based Survey Telephone Web.

myron
Télécharger la présentation

Lecture 15 – Psyco 350, B1 Fall, 2011

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Lecture 15 – Psyco 350, B1Fall, 2011 N. R. Brown

  2. Outline 1. Discrepant Partner Reports and the MSP • The Discrepancy • MSP • Evidence: strategy differences & Estimation bias. • Two Studies • UA undergrads -- Questionnaire Study • USA random sample -- Web-based Survey • Telephone • Web Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 2

  3. Time for another Memory Demo Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 3

  4. Accurate (?) Frequency Judgments Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 4

  5. Memory for “How Many” Modal explicit memory test: • Memory for “what” Other explicit memory test focus on event properties: • when – event age/date/recency, list position • where – physical location • physical properties – appearance/sound/smell • how often/how many – frequency Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 5

  6. Memory for “How Many” Theoretical Issues: • Understand the impact of repetition on memory. • Why is frequency performance often very good? • How is frequency information represented, updated, & used? • How and when is frequency information used to inform probability judgments and prediction? Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 6

  7. Memory for “How Many” Practical Issue: • Self-reported “behavioral frequency” questions common in surveys & scales. • business, government, Social Sciences, medicine (epidemiology) • When are estimates accurate/inaccurate? • When/why are they inaccurate/biased? • Is there anyway to improve accuracy? Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 7

  8. A Commonly Asked Frequency Question How many sexual partners have you had in your lifetime? Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 8

  9. Importance • Epidemiology • Sociology • Psychology • Methodology ♂SPs = ♀SPs SP = sex partner Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 9

  10. ♂SP Mean = ♀SP Means F M F M F M F M F M Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 10

  11. ♂SP Mean = ♀SP Means F M F M F M F M F M (♀SP = 2) = (♂SPs = 2) Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 11

  12. ♂SP Mean = ♀SP Means F M F M F M F M F M Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 12

  13. ♂SP Mean = ♀SP Means F M F M F M F M F M (♀SP = 2) = (♂SPs = 2) Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 13

  14. The Discrepancy ♂s report far more opposite-sex SPs than ♀s Magnitude: • 2 X – 4X Generality: • US, UK, France, Canada, Norway, New Zealand Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 14

  15. SP Discrepancy as Case Study: Explanations Sampling Response Social Cognitive Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 15

  16. Sampling Account (Brewer, et al 2000) • Prostitutes under-sampled • Support: • adjustment = estimate[# CSW]* estimate [# partners/CSW] • adjustment reduces discrepancy • Problems • implication: For ♂s,≈75% SP are CSWs • Wiederman (1997) – removing “Johns” reduces discrepancy slightly, but does not eliminate it. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 16

  17. Social Account: Self-Presentation Bad-faith Explanations • Respondents are "telling themselves and others enormous lies“ -- Lewontin • "Intentional misreports are the main source of the discrepancies.” -- Smith Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 17

  18. Social Account: Self-Presentation Bad-faith Explanations Assumed to Reflect a socially prescribed Directional Biases The-Macho-and-the-Maiden Hypothesis: • ♂ exaggerate • ♀ minimize Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 18

  19. The Social Account: Support Intuition Robust attitude differences (Oliver & Hyde, 1993) Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 19

  20. The Stakes Bad-Faith Partner Estimates Undermine credibility of self-report placing "all scientific sociology...in deep trouble” -- Lewontin Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 20

  21. A Problem for the Social Account Problem: • Non-discrepant response patterns are the norm -- duration, frequency, activities, # past-year SPs • Example: Laumann et al. (1994) Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 21

  22. A Cognitive AccountThe Multiple Strategies Perspective Links the discrepancy to between-sex differences in strategy use. Identifies common strategies w/ explicable bias • Enumeration underestimation • “Rough Approximation”  overestimation Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 22

  23. Multiple Strategy Perspective • multiple strategies • multiple representations • encoding  content • content  strategy • strategy  performance References: • Blair & Burton, 1987; Brown, 1995, 1997, 2002, in press; Burton & Blair, 1991; Conrad et al, 1998, 2003; Menon, 1993. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 23

  24. encoding factors contents strategy effort bias accuracy Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 24

  25. Multiple Strategy Perspective • Encoding factors determine task-relevant contents of memory. • Contents of memory restrict strategy selection. • Strategy selection and response bias often related. Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 25

  26. An Empirically Derived Taxonomy of Frequency Estimation Strategies Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 26

  27. Relating Encoding, content, strategy & Performance Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 27

  28. Evidence for MPS: Brown (1995) Two Experiments: • common materials • common estimation task • different process-based based measures • Experiment 1 – concurrent verbal protocols • Experiment 2 – RT Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 28

  29. Materials & Task Study Phase: 260 word pairs visual presentation: 6 s / pair Word Pairs: category label – category instance CITY – Boston Presentation Frequency of category labels: 2, 4, 8, 12, 16 Test Phase: 36 category labels “How many times did the word CITY appear on the study list”? Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 29

  30. Two Types of Study Lists: Different Context & Same Context Different Context Lists TargetContext city Paris sport football color red . . . . color green city Cleveland metal iron . . . . woman Mary city Boston . . . . Same Context Lists TargetContext city Boston sport football color red . . . . color red city Boston metal iron . . . . woman Mary city Boston . . . . Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 30

  31. Results: Process Measures • Different Context: enumeration very common • Same Context: unjustified very common – • fluency/availability-based estimates Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 31

  32. Results: Protocol Results Interpretation: • People enumerate when possible because it provides concrete credible basis for an estimate • Readily-retrieval instances are a precondition for enumeration. Alternative Interpretation: • People generally do not enumerate • In protocol study: enumeration common because task demands imply that participants SAY something relevant to justify their response. • possible in different context condition • not possible in same-context condition Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 32

  33. Results: Process Measures Different Context: • RTs  frequency • evidence for silent enumeration Same Context: • RT slope much shallower. • no enumeration Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 33

  34. Results: Accuracy Measures Measures: • Mean Signed Error = (estimatei – actuali)/N • Mean Absolute Error = |signed errori|/N Findings: • Performance good regardless of context type • Absolute error: Different < Same • Signed Error (bias): Different < 0 < Same Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 34

  35. Different Context  underestimation Same Context  overestimation RT Study Protocol Study Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 35

  36. Experimental Summary Multiple strategies Strategy selection restricted by memory contents Bias & Strategy related: • enumeration underestimation • rough aprox overestimation Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 36

  37. Lifetime Partner Discrepancy from the MSP Multiple strategies: • Enumeration • Rough Approximation • Others(?) Strategy & magnitude related. • enumeration < rough aprox Strategy selection related to sex • Enumeration: ♀ > ♂ • Rough Aprox: ♂ > ♀ Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 37

  38. MSP Predictions – Past Year Estimates • Comparable past-year reports • Multiple strategies used • Strategy & magnitude related • Strategy & sex of respondent unrelated Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 38

  39. A Questionnaire Study: Brown & Sinclair (1999) Method: • Demographics • SP reports: • lifetime estimate & written strategy report • past-year estimate & written strategy report • Attitude measures Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 39

  40. A Questionnaire Study: Brown & Sinclair (1999) Participants: University Students: AB, PA, NJ 1036 ♀ 687 ♂ Age: M = 20.7 MD = 19 Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 40

  41. Distribution of SP Estimates -- AlbertaQ Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 41

  42. Sexual Active Subset -- AlbertaQ • Most active 10%; SP  8 • Heterosexual • 90 Females Age: md = 22 SPs: m = 13.61 • 85 Males Age: md = 23 SPs: m = 19.91 Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 42

  43. SP Est– Sexaul Active Subset -- AlbertaQ Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 43

  44. Protocol Content – AlbertaQ Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 44

  45. Sample Protocols -- AlbertaQ Enumeration (Retrieve & Count) "By retracing chronologically the partners I've had. Beginning with the first, ending with the present." -- M, 20 "I recalled and counted." -- F, 18 "Counted all the names I remembered." -- F, 11 "I can recall who they were and can count them." -- F, 15 Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 45

  46. Sample Protocols -- AlbertaQ Rough Approximation • “Rough guess, give or take 1 or 2 partners." -- M, 16 • "Rough estimate plus-or-minus error 5" -- M, 20 • "I used to keep count. # has slowed down is likely about there" -- M, "30 (or so)“ • "It is a guess based on the amount of partners I have had at the minimum.“ -- M, 50 Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 46

  47. Sample Protocols -- AlbertaQ Retrieved Tally "Keep track of them as they occurred." -- M, 21 "I know the number without thinking as it has been previously discussed among friends“-- M, 10 "I didn't estimate. I've kept count."-- F, 11 "I kept track in my diary and I know that my boyfriend is #27." -- F, 27 Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 47

  48. Sample Protocols -- AlbertaQ Rate • "Avg of 5/year from 16-21, then remained monogamous." -- M, 25 • "The average length of relationship since the time I became sexually active." -- M, 20 Ambiguous/Unclear • "Memory." -- M, 22“ • “I remember them."-- M, 10 Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 48

  49. Strategy Usage – Sexual Active – AlbertaQ EN = ENumeration TA = TAlly AP= rough APproximation AM = AMbiguous Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 49

  50. MD Lifetime SPs X Strategy Sexual Active AlbertaQ EN = ENumeration TA = TAlly AM = AMbiguous AP= rough APproximation Psyco 350 Lec #15– Slide 50

More Related