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Nodal Program Update

Nodal Program Update. Today’s Agenda. Program Status Market Readiness LFC Test Overview Network Modeling Management Update Nodal Go-Live Update Financials Appendix. Integrated Nodal Timeline – Go-Live December 1, 2010. 2010 Market Trials Timeline – Go-Live December 1, 2010.

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Nodal Program Update

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  1. Nodal Program Update Special Nodal Program Committee

  2. Today’s Agenda • Program Status • Market Readiness • LFC Test Overview • Network Modeling Management Update • Nodal Go-Live Update • Financials • Appendix Special Nodal Program Committee

  3. Integrated Nodal Timeline – Go-Live December 1, 2010 Special Nodal Program Committee

  4. 2010 Market Trials Timeline – Go-Live December 1, 2010 Special Nodal Program Committee

  5. Cut-Over Timeline Nodal Market Readiness Special Nodal Program Committee

  6. Post Go-Live/Stabilization Cost Allocation QUESTION TO ANSWER • When do Nodal Program direct costs end? • Hardware/Software Maintenance • Deferred defect remediation • Parking Lot Items • Supplemental Operational Support (customer service inquiries, disputes, monitoring) CURRENT STATE • $2.9 million currently forecasted in Nodal EAC for 12/1 – 12/31 • 2011 budgeting process underway ACTION REQUIRED • BOD/PUC decision in order to progress with Nodal Program closeout and 2011 budgeting process Amounts in Millions Special Nodal Program Committee

  7. 134 Days to Go-Live Market Trials has been running for 24 weeks Market Quality Testing and Operational Readiness Achievements within Market Trials: • CRR • Six monthly CRR auctions and one Balance of the Year auction have been completed and invoiced • Real Time Markets • SCED • Real Time settlements • DAM / RUC • DRUC has been running in conjunction with DAM for 13 weeks • DAM Settlements are being executed • Settlement and extract data has been available since Mid-May • Continual strong participation from the Market Participants (Averaged 197 QSEs / DAM run) • 12 Operational scenarios were successfully run in June • DAM / RUC 5 times per wk except for weeks that contain an LFC test • Ancillary Services • Procured in every DAM for production quantities • Supplemental AS Market tested as needed • Closed Loop LFC • 2 hour test occurred in May • 8 hour test occurred on June 17th • Credit • Credit Module went into effect on May 14th Special Nodal Program Committee

  8. 134 Days to Go-Live Market Trials has been running for 24 weeks • Upcoming Milestones for Market Trials: • Closed Loop Load Frequency Control (LFC) / Market Readiness Assessment / Market Simulation • 5 hour test scheduled for this week • 24 hour test scheduled for the week of August 2nd • Scheduling more LFC tests with market participants input • Week of August 30th, 48 hour LFC Test • DAM/RUC/SASM Scenarios • Planning more operational scenarios to be re-run in August • DAM will run continuously for 7 consecutive days starting on 8/16/2010 through 8/23/2010 • HRUC will run 24x7 for all 7 days • Reduce the number of DAMs to create more resource availability to support additional LFC tests • Market Changes in trials in July/August • NPRR206- Change in Credit Management Collateral calculations for Day-Ahead Market • NPRR202- Posting of ERCOT network model (redacted version for all MPs) • NPRR169- Posting Real-Time Prices after every SCED run • Market Readiness Seminar scheduled for July 28th • System Cut-Over / Go-Live • Sept/Oct 2010– Network Modeling, Outage Scheduling • November 2010- Go-Live CRR Auction • November 30th DAM • December 1st – First Operating Day Special Nodal Program Committee

  9. Upcoming Dates for Go-Live Sign Off • The table below outlines key approval dates for TAC and Board Signoff Special Nodal Program Committee

  10. Nodal Internal/External and Vendor Headcount 2010 Special Nodal Program Committee

  11. Go-Live BUSINESS PROCESS TEST ICCP Quality SE Quality Integrated Credit Management Solution/ Data Quality Contingencies Model Load /Validation Processes 1 Day Dual Entry Business Stability UI Performance Improvements NPRR 206 Integration HRUC SASM DAM RTM ICCP Point Checkout DRUC Phase 5:Full Functionality SCED Integration RARF MARKET TEST Phase 5: Full Functionality Solution/ Data Completeness PERFORMANCE & LOAD TEST Model Baseline May Auction System Stability INTEGRATION TEST Functional Completeness Functional Stability FA/SA TEST Test Activities Business Quality NMMS RTM EMS OS CRR DAM COMS CMM REG REPORTS MT 2.1 SEM MT 4.0 MT 5.0 MT 3.0 Special Nodal Program Committee

  12. Nodal Program Risks & Issues Special Nodal Program Committee

  13. Nodal Defects Trends - High Priority (Must Fix Before Go-Live) • Defect counts decreased due to planned defect migrations into Nodal iTest. • Primary source of Open defect counts are EDW, EIP, EMS and MMS. • Total active high priority defects are currently at 618. Special Nodal Program Committee

  14. Nodal Defects Status Overview *Targeting all defects required for Go-Live to be completed by August 13. 2010 Special Nodal Program Committee

  15. Deferred Nodal Defects Overview • Approximately 700 defects have been deferred • Deferred defects are currently going through a review process to ensure that the issue still exists, confirmation of viable workaround, prioritization into a Post Go-Live Release • All of the deferred defects are of SEV3 or lower… • SEV3 – 304 (not critical with a work around - report automation) • SEV4 – 319 (partial loss of feature set – screen fields, error handling) • SEV5 – 86 (Cosmetic – font size, help menu) Special Nodal Program Committee

  16. Incoming Questions for Market Trials Team • 87% of all incoming questions over the past 7 days are answered within 24 hours • Majority of the questions were technical in nature Question Turnaround Time Question Area Special Nodal Program Committee

  17. Nodal Parking Deck - Approved No items on the Parking Deck have the changed the scope of the Dec 1st deliverable Special Nodal Program Committee

  18. Nodal Parking Deck – Pending The following items were removed from the Parking Deck in the past month: None Special Nodal Program Committee

  19. Nodal Parking Deck – Additional Items for Consideration Special Nodal Program Committee

  20. LFC Test Overview Kenneth Ragsdale Market Trials Special Nodal Program Committee

  21. 8-Hour LFC Test Update 8-Hour LFC Test Update Special Nodal Program Committee

  22. Results of the 8 Hour Test • ERCOT operational perspective • The switching of control between systems went smoothly • Frequency was controlled for duration of test by nodal systems • Planned operational scenarios were executed as planned • CPS1 scores were passing except for one hour • ERCOT Operators able to manage numerous active constraints with SCED Special Nodal Program Committee

  23. Issues & Observations During the 8 Hour Test on June 17th Special Nodal Program Committee

  24. Issues During the 8 Hour Test - ERCOT • Issue #1 – Missing Shift Factors for Electrical Busses affected SPP calculation • EMS integration did not properly provide electrical bus shift factors • Load Zone, Hub, and Electrical Bus LMPs/SPPs incorrect when constraints binding or violated • Issue introduced with EMS Bug Fix end of last year • Issue #2 – Missing Shift Factors for constraints in SCED for brief period • Shift Factor transfer from EMS to MMS from1320-1339 had issues • Constraints were ignored by SCED for 19 minutes • Dispatch closely monitored by Operators until resolved • Issue introduced with EMS Bug fix in mid-May • Issue #3 – Incorrect flag setting in EMS • ERCOT did not use load distributed bus as the reference bus • Telemetry changes created topology changes which lead to a bus in the west zone to be the reference bus • Having 3% shift factor cut off caused several WGRs to have no shift factors on the constraint causing WGRs to be marginal Special Nodal Program Committee

  25. Issues During the 8 Hour Test – Market Participants • Issues during test for Market Participants • Telemetry: • Inconsistencies between JOU owners (e.g., telemetry, COP) • Incorrect Ancillary Service values in telemetry for Resource • Incorrect Resource Status Codes • Incorrect HSL/LSL values telemetered • Resource with nodal Output Schedule offering BES into zonal market • Resources not following their nodal Base Points • Resources not following regulation signals • Zonal Resource Plans not in agreement with Nodal Special Nodal Program Committee

  26. Next Steps – LFC Tests • Migrate fix to views that will resolve the issue with the Shift Factors not being available (Code migrated, still monitoring) • Migrate fix to views that will resolve the issue with transferring an incomplete Shift Factor set (Code migrated, still monitoring) • Use Distributed Load Bus as the Reference Bus instead of Single Reference Bus • Set Shift Factor cut-off to a much smaller value such as .0001 • More closely monitor resources on how they are following their base points and provide feedback • Confirm parameter settings prior to every test • Leave OC1 in zonal during transition. Once 100% Nodal take out OC1 in zonal. Bring the OC1 back at the start of transitioning back to zonal • Specific time slots for tuning for both Market Participants and ERCOT Special Nodal Program Committee

  27. Next Steps – LFC Test Schedule • Tentatively scheduled 6 LFC tests through September • 5 Hour LFC test scheduled the week of July 19th • 24 Hour LFC (noon to noon) scheduled the week of the August 2nd • 2 additional tests in August • 2 tests in September Special Nodal Program Committee

  28. Nodal Go-Live UpdateReview of Network Modeling Go-Live Items Kenneth Ragsdale Market Trials Special Nodal Program Committee

  29. Network Model Management System Update • Improvement in stability since July 2 • Configuration change applied to eliminate memory defect • Still have intermittent system re-starts • 8 restarts have occurred since July 2 • ERCOT/Siemens stability patch was installed July 18 • Working to improve system performance • Navigation time is slow when accessing network model • Target for navigation performance improvement is July 31 • Validation process being reviewed for performance improvement • Looking to improve validation time • In analysis Special Nodal Program Committee

  30. Protocol 21.12.3 21.12.3 Notice to Market Participants of Effective Date for Nodal Protocol Provisions and Retirement of Zonal Protocol Provision No part of the nodal market design may start operation until all the Market Readiness Criteria for that part of the nodal market design have been met. Certification that all Market Readiness Criteria have been met must be made at least by each of the following: the Technical Advisory Committee (TAC), ERCOT and the ERCOT Board. Upon such certification, ERCOT shall issue two Notices alerting Market Participants to the effective date of Nodal Protocol sections and the retirement of Zonal Protocol sections, as applicable. ERCOT shall issue the first Notice no less than thirty (30) days prior to the effective date or retirement date, as applicable, and the second Notice no less than ten (10) days prior to the effective date or retirement date, as applicable. The Notice shall include: (1) The Nodal Protocol Sections to become effective; and (2) The Zonal Protocol Sections to be retired, if any Special Nodal Program Committee

  31. Readiness Methodology ERCOT will measure readiness by the following categories: • System Readiness – an evaluation of a particular system needed to support identified market activities • Process Readiness – an evaluation of the Processes and Procedures necessary to support identified market activities • People Readiness – an evaluation of ERCOT and Market Participant capabilities to support identified market activities • ERCOT reviewed the readiness criteria at the 6/23/10 NATF, 7/1/10 TAC and 7/8/10 NATF. • The 7/8/10 NATF voted to recommend to TAC that the Network Operations Model readiness criteria has been met. • ERCOT is requesting a vote from the 7/20/10 TAC and the 7/20/10 Board on the Market Readiness Criteria per Section 21.12.3, Notice to Market Participants of Effective Date for Nodal Protocol Provisions and Retirement of Zonal Protocol Provision. Special Nodal Program Committee

  32. Network Operations Modeling – Go Live Special Nodal Program Committee

  33. Network Operations Modeling – Go Live Special Nodal Program Committee

  34. For Board Consideration – Network Operations Model Motion for Board consideration: • The ERCOT Board of Directors certifies that the Network Operations Modeling Market Readiness Criteria have been met Special Nodal Program Committee

  35. Nodal Program Cutover • The table below outlines key dates and activities requiring Market Participant support Special Nodal Program Committee

  36. Market Readiness Brandon McElfresh Readiness & Transformation Special Nodal Program Committee

  37. Reminder – Nodal Registration Cutoff – QSEs and CRRAHs • Scope • What is the cutoff date for QSEs and CRRAHs to begin registration for Nodal Go-Live (based on ERCOT resource availability)? • Registration must begin by these dates to be qualified for Nodal Go-Live • August 13th, 2010 • QSEs with Resources with a new WAN connection * • CRRAHs (to be qualified for the 10/13 PCRR nomination and for the 11/11 December 2010 CRR Auction) * ~ • October 1st, 2010 • QSE with Resources using a Nodal qualified service provider * • QSEs without Resources * • Sub-QSEs using a Nodal qualified parent QSE * • Mechanics • Qualification will follow the Nodal production qualification process and all testing will be done in the MOTE environment • MPs that want to begin registration past these deadlines will be examined on a case-by-case basis • Nodal Metric MP22 will measure progress of new entrants QSERs (new wan), CRRAHs QSERs (existing wan), Sub-QSERs, QSEs w/o Resources • * QSE Application or CRRAH Application must be submitted, which includes Credit Application • ~ Doesn’t include NOIE Allocation Eligibility Form, which must be submitted by 6/30 for CRRAHs eligible for PCRRs Special Nodal Program Committee

  38. Next 60-days of Classes/Workshops Enrollment at: http://nodal.ercot.com/training/courses/index.html Special Nodal Program Committee

  39. Next 60-days of Classes/Workshops - continued Enrollment at: http://nodal.ercot.com/training/courses/index.html Special Nodal Program Committee

  40. RED/AMBER Metrics Summary – Market Participant Metrics Market Participant Metrics • MP15(B) • 12 not qualified - 4 within 30 day grace period, 2 expressed no intention to qualify, and 6 still working to submit qualification transactions • Minimal risk to running the December 2010 Auction • MP16 • QSEs w/o Resources DAM participation ~ 80% since measurement started in April. • These QSEs represent 1% of Load. • Minimal risk to Go-Live • MP21 • 83 WGRs – 54 passed reasonability test, 26 working with ERCOT to resolve, 3 with no response • WGRs notified 6/23 and metric began 7/14 • Any WGRs not meeting reasonability tests by end of July are subject to escalation to the TRE Special Nodal Program Committee

  41. RED/AMBER Metric Summary – ERCOT Metrics ERCOT Metrics • EMO9(B) • Measures data quality between Zonal and Nodal Network Models • Expected completion after verification of Model changes in DSV 21 (mid-August) Special Nodal Program Committee

  42. Monthly Financial Review Mike Petterson Controller Interim Director – Nodal Financial Management Office Special Nodal Program Committee

  43. Current Monthly Financials

  44. Financial Review – June 2010 Performance Forecast vs. Actual Amounts in Millions Note 1: Forecast consists of re-forecast from April 1, 2010 plus NCRs Special Nodal Program Committee

  45. Financial Review – LTD Performance through June 2010Forecast vs. Actual Amounts in Millions Note 1: Forecast consists of re-forecast from April 1, 2010 plus Q2 NCRs Note 2: Estimate to Complete (ETC) consists of re-forecast from April 1, 2010 plus Q2 NCRs Special Nodal Program Committee

  46. Financial Review – CTO Contingency Fund Q2 Risk Items Update Amounts in Millions Note 1: H – high probability risk has or will materialize, L – low probability risk has or will materialize Special Nodal Program Committee

  47. Quarterly Reforecast Process Update

  48. Financial Review – Board Discretionary Fund Summary • The Board Approved Budget is $643.8M • Board Discretionary Fund increasing by $0.8M to $113.6M • Direct Program Costs: • Estimate at Completion reforecast favorable net variance $0.6M • Unutilized Q1 2010 EAC risk items $3.4M • Q2 favorable variance $1.0M • CTO risk items for Q3 ($3.8M) • Indirect Program Costs: • Q2 favorable finance variance $0.2M Special Nodal Program Committee

  49. Financial Review – CTO Contingency Fund Q3 Risk Items Update Amounts in Millions Special Nodal Program Committee

  50. Financial Review – CTO Contingency Fund Q3 Risk Request Detail Amounts in Millions Special Nodal Program Committee

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