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SEECOF-10 Forecasts for DJF

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of oceanic conditions and forecasts for the winter DJF 2023-2024, prepared by Christian Viel at Météo-France. It covers ocean analysis from various equatorial regions, including the Pacific, Indian, and Atlantic Oceans, highlighting significant SST anomalies and their implications for ENSO and IOD phases. General circulation forecasts and potential impacts on temperature and precipitation are summarized, indicating a predominantly neutral ENSO phase, with expected temperature and rainfall scenarios for Europe.

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SEECOF-10 Forecasts for DJF

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  1. SEECOF-10Forecasts for DJF Christian Viel Météo-France

  2. Outline • Ocean analysis • Ocean forecasts • General Circulation forecasts • Impacts (T, RR) • Summary

  3. OceanicanalysisSSTOct. 2013 Ocean analysis From MERCATOR, reference GLORYS 1992-2009

  4. August September October time Ocean analysis Equatorial Pacific Equatorial Indian Equatorial Atlantic Kelvin waves

  5. Ocean analysis Weak SST anomalies in equatorial regions : • Atlantic : ~neutral • Pacific : weak positive anomaly in the western part, becoming neutral in the eastern part (warming)  ENSO phase : neutral • Indian : west neutral, east positive  IOD still negative (but now ~0) Niño3.4

  6. Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary

  7. Ocean forecasts Météo France SST forecasts ECMWF

  8. Ocean forecasts – Central Pacific Niño3.4

  9. Ocean forecasts - Atlantic Northern tropical Atlantic (TNA) :

  10. Ocean forecasts Tropics : • Pacific : weak positive anomaly around the Warm Pool; ENSO neutral • Indian : IOD ~0 • Atlantic : warmer than normal conditions in Northern sub-tropics

  11. Ocean forecasts

  12. Previous oceanic conditions to winter weather regimes SST Composites of November (standardized anomalies) vs winter regimeoccurrences in DJF(MF model) Lower Tercile NAO- NAO+ Upper Tercile Lower Tercile Blocking Atlantic ridge UpperTercile (significance threshold 70 %)

  13. Regime et mean TT,RR in winter

  14. Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary

  15. Tropical response and forcing - DJF Upper troposphere circulation fields (200 hPa) + - Shaded areas : velocity potential anomalies (divergent circulation anomalies) green <-> upward motion anomaly pink <-> downward motion anomaly + - Isolines : stream function anomalies (rotational circulation anomalies) blue lines <-> cyclonic (in NH) red lines <-> anticyclonic (in NH) + -

  16. Mid-Latitude Response - DJF

  17. Mid-Latitude Response - DJF

  18. General Circulation forecasts - DJF • Relatively good consistency in tropical response to SST forcing • But no trace of teleconnection from tropics to NH mid-latitude  limited predictability related to tropical forcing

  19. Outline Ocean analysis Ocean forecasts General Circulation forecasts Impacts (T, RR) Summary

  20. Temperature probabilities : DJF Skill (1987-2001)

  21. Precipitation probabilities : DJF Skill (1987-2001) outer-quintile categories Skill (1987-2001)

  22. Summary for DJF • - close to normal conditions in equatorial waveguides , despite of • warming of SST anomalies over the central part of Equatorial Pacific  ENSO : neutral conditions • - limited predictability over mid-latitudes (Europe) • - some signal (for T) over the Mediterranean basin : slightly enhanced probabilities of warmer than normal conditions .

  23. Temperature and rainfall scenarios for Europe : DJF T RR Skill (1987-2001) Not yet available Not yet available http://elaboration.seasonal.meteo.fr

  24. Previous oceanic conditions to winter weather regimes SST Composites of November (standardized anomalies) vs winter regimeoccurrences in DJF(MF model) Lower Tercile NAO- NAO+ Upper Tercile Lower Tercile Blocking Atlantic ridge UpperTercile (significance threshold 70 %)

  25. Regime et mean TT,RR in winter

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