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Economic and Fiscal Outlook Peter R. Orszag Citigroup

Economic and Fiscal Outlook Peter R. Orszag Citigroup. Recoveries tend to be sluggish following financial crises In 2007, private sector borrowing was 28% of GDP; in 2009 it was -17% of GDP The peak unemployment rate is reached from three to ten years after the crisis

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Economic and Fiscal Outlook Peter R. Orszag Citigroup

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  1. Economic and Fiscal Outlook Peter R. Orszag Citigroup

  2. Recoveries tend to be sluggish following financial crises • In 2007, private sector borrowing was 28% of GDP; in 2009 it was -17% of GDP • The peak unemployment rate is reached from three to ten years after the crisis • Housing is a key transmission mechanism • Median housing prices are 15 to 20% lower in the decade after a crisis compared to pre-crisis levels • Feedback loop: weak economy  weak housing  weak economy • Political Polarization in the United States • Not caused by gerrymandering • Inertia does not lead to good outcomes (fiscal, climate, etc.) • Learn to function with gridlock

  3. Components of Growth

  4. Employment-Population Ratio

  5. Medicare Spending Per Beneficiary by HRR, 2006

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