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The Vital Role of Science in Global Policy Decision-Making

The Vital Role of Science in Global Policy Decision-Making. Philip M. Seng President/CEO U.S. Meat Export Federation. The next 25 to 50 years. Population Resource management Technology Knowledge Economic integration Conflict Governance. Source: CSIS, 2005. Population.

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The Vital Role of Science in Global Policy Decision-Making

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  1. The Vital Role of Science in Global Policy Decision-Making Philip M. Seng President/CEO U.S. Meat Export Federation

  2. The next 25 to 50 years • Population • Resource management • Technology • Knowledge • Economic integration • Conflict • Governance Source: CSIS, 2005

  3. Population • About 8700 people every hour, 146/minute, 2.5/second are added to the global population • 33 countries in the world are expected to have smaller population in the year 2020? Source: Census Bureau, 2005; CSIS, 2005

  4. Population

  5. Population/Economics Source: Census Bureau, 2005; Stuart, 2005

  6. FAO Meat Consumption Estimates % change from base year +67% +29% +108% +34% +57% +30% +64% +22% +44% +22% Source: FAO

  7. Source: World Bank - World Development Indicators

  8. Per Capita Meat Consumption Source: FAO

  9. US/EU vs. World Beef Consumption Source: FAO

  10. World Economic Growth Sources: Oxford Economic Forecasting; International Financial Statistics, IMF

  11. China Factor • World food demand will increase 50% over the next 20 years, paced by the growing population and greater affluence of China 1988 to 2002 • In China • calories from animal sources +120% • calories from vegetable sources - unchanged • In the Developing World • calories from animal sources +48% • calories from vegetable sources +4%. Source: FAO

  12. Global Beef Export Market Share 100% 90% Others 80% Argentina 70% EU New Zealand 60% Canada 50% U.S. Australia 40% Brazil 30% 20% 10% 0% '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 f Source: USDA

  13. First EU beef deficit since the late 1970’s Source: USDA, Compiled by USMEF

  14. Trade Implications

  15. Emerging Market Access Issues • As tariffs fall, countries find other ways to protect their domestic industries • Unscientific sanitary standards • Hormone ban, disease restrictions, zero tolerance • Technical barriers • Burdensome paperwork, slow approvals • Anti-dumping measures • Traditionally used by developed countries • Developing countries starting to use As Tariffs Fall…Other Measures Rise Source: Cato Institute

  16. Number of New SPS Issues Raised Each Year Source: WTO

  17. Specific Trade Concerns by Product Source: WTO, 2000-2001 measures

  18. SPS Trade Concerns by Subject - last 10 years - Source: WTO

  19. Hormone Bans in 2005 Hormone Bans in 1990 Countries represent 40% of global beef eating population

  20. Threats to Global Meat Trade • Animal Health / Food Safety Issues • BSE: 24 countries affected comprising 33% of global exports • Avian Influenza: 17 countries affected comprising 53% of global poultry exports • Animal diseases currently threaten 1/3 of global meat exports with losses valued at $10 billion

  21. Ban on U.S. Beef due to BSE

  22. Impacts • Canada • Exported 47% of production prior to BSE; dropped to 32% • U.S. • 2003 value of exports was $4.2 million; decreased by over 80% • Japan • Estimated that the industry in Japan will lose $2.5 billion and the unemployment rate is expected to increase 2% just due to ban on U.S. and Canadian beef Source: Cattle-fax; UFJ Institute

  23. Trade Concerns Reported Solved After 10 Years Source: WTO

  24. Influence On Trade Negotiations • Consumer Perceptions / Information • Culture • Political • Scientific - Academia / Institutions • Non Government Organizations • Commodity • Political • Consumer • Private Companies • Other

  25. Scientific Voids • In Country Scientific Basis • Risk Assessments • Understanding Of Process Control • Verification And Validation • Food Safety Management – HACCP • Complete Acceptance Of Scientific Bodies • World Organization For Animal Health (OIE) • Codex • World Health Organization • Human Epidemiological Investigations • Understanding • Modern Agriculture • Magnitude And Capabilities Of U.S. Livestock Production And Meat Processing • Meat Quality And Grading Criteria

  26. Consumer Trust Source: CSIS

  27. What is Practiced? • Precautionary Principle • Protectionism / Barriers • Abundance of Caution • True Science/Risk Analysis

  28. Negotiations • Negotiated Terms • World Trade Organization • Free Trade Agreements • Scientific Bodies • CODEX • OIE • World Health Organization

  29. Summary • Scientific Basis Is Vital • Science Can Quickly Become Political • Consumer Perceptions Are Key / Understanding Culture • It is the Industry’s role to provide the necessary information and knowledge to consumers to convey the validity of globally accepted standards

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