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The Vital Role of Science in Global Policy Decision-Making

Explore how science influences global policies on population, resource management, economic integration, and more. Learn about emerging market access issues, trade implications, and the importance of consumer perceptions in policy formulation.

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The Vital Role of Science in Global Policy Decision-Making

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  1. The Vital Role of Science in Global Policy Decision-Making Philip M. Seng President/CEO U.S. Meat Export Federation

  2. The next 25 to 50 years • Population • Resource management • Technology • Knowledge • Economic integration • Conflict • Governance Source: CSIS, 2005

  3. Population • About 8700 people every hour, 146/minute, 2.5/second are added to the global population • 33 countries in the world are expected to have smaller population in the year 2020? Source: Census Bureau, 2005; CSIS, 2005

  4. Population

  5. Population/Economics Source: Census Bureau, 2005; Stuart, 2005

  6. FAO Meat Consumption Estimates % change from base year +67% +29% +108% +34% +57% +30% +64% +22% +44% +22% Source: FAO

  7. Source: World Bank - World Development Indicators

  8. Per Capita Meat Consumption Source: FAO

  9. US/EU vs. World Beef Consumption Source: FAO

  10. World Economic Growth Sources: Oxford Economic Forecasting; International Financial Statistics, IMF

  11. China Factor • World food demand will increase 50% over the next 20 years, paced by the growing population and greater affluence of China 1988 to 2002 • In China • calories from animal sources +120% • calories from vegetable sources - unchanged • In the Developing World • calories from animal sources +48% • calories from vegetable sources +4%. Source: FAO

  12. Global Beef Export Market Share 100% 90% Others 80% Argentina 70% EU New Zealand 60% Canada 50% U.S. Australia 40% Brazil 30% 20% 10% 0% '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 f Source: USDA

  13. First EU beef deficit since the late 1970’s Source: USDA, Compiled by USMEF

  14. Trade Implications

  15. Emerging Market Access Issues • As tariffs fall, countries find other ways to protect their domestic industries • Unscientific sanitary standards • Hormone ban, disease restrictions, zero tolerance • Technical barriers • Burdensome paperwork, slow approvals • Anti-dumping measures • Traditionally used by developed countries • Developing countries starting to use As Tariffs Fall…Other Measures Rise Source: Cato Institute

  16. Number of New SPS Issues Raised Each Year Source: WTO

  17. Specific Trade Concerns by Product Source: WTO, 2000-2001 measures

  18. SPS Trade Concerns by Subject - last 10 years - Source: WTO

  19. Hormone Bans in 2005 Hormone Bans in 1990 Countries represent 40% of global beef eating population

  20. Threats to Global Meat Trade • Animal Health / Food Safety Issues • BSE: 24 countries affected comprising 33% of global exports • Avian Influenza: 17 countries affected comprising 53% of global poultry exports • Animal diseases currently threaten 1/3 of global meat exports with losses valued at $10 billion

  21. Ban on U.S. Beef due to BSE

  22. Impacts • Canada • Exported 47% of production prior to BSE; dropped to 32% • U.S. • 2003 value of exports was $4.2 million; decreased by over 80% • Japan • Estimated that the industry in Japan will lose $2.5 billion and the unemployment rate is expected to increase 2% just due to ban on U.S. and Canadian beef Source: Cattle-fax; UFJ Institute

  23. Trade Concerns Reported Solved After 10 Years Source: WTO

  24. Influence On Trade Negotiations • Consumer Perceptions / Information • Culture • Political • Scientific - Academia / Institutions • Non Government Organizations • Commodity • Political • Consumer • Private Companies • Other

  25. Scientific Voids • In Country Scientific Basis • Risk Assessments • Understanding Of Process Control • Verification And Validation • Food Safety Management – HACCP • Complete Acceptance Of Scientific Bodies • World Organization For Animal Health (OIE) • Codex • World Health Organization • Human Epidemiological Investigations • Understanding • Modern Agriculture • Magnitude And Capabilities Of U.S. Livestock Production And Meat Processing • Meat Quality And Grading Criteria

  26. Consumer Trust Source: CSIS

  27. What is Practiced? • Precautionary Principle • Protectionism / Barriers • Abundance of Caution • True Science/Risk Analysis

  28. Negotiations • Negotiated Terms • World Trade Organization • Free Trade Agreements • Scientific Bodies • CODEX • OIE • World Health Organization

  29. Summary • Scientific Basis Is Vital • Science Can Quickly Become Political • Consumer Perceptions Are Key / Understanding Culture • It is the Industry’s role to provide the necessary information and knowledge to consumers to convey the validity of globally accepted standards

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