SYRIAN CIVIL WAR &THE IMPACT ON ITS NEIGHBORS Faten Ghosn, PhD firstname.lastname@example.org
OUTLINE • Three Main Goals: • Domestic, regional and international factors that facilitated the civil war and how they differentiate Syria from Egypt and Tunis. • The main powerful rebel groups on the ground. • Spillover effect into neighboring countries.
DOMESTIC, REGIONAL & INTERNATIONAL FACTORS • Domestic • Failed Economic Liberalization; Impact of Sanctions; Dominance of Gulf Capital; Housing Crisis • Decline in subsidies to the population- 20% unemployment & 14% living in poverty (UNDP 2010) • Repression • Revival of Islamists in 2004 • Attacks/Assassinations/Bombings/Clashes with militant groups: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009; Political leaders as well as Moderate Religious clerics were being targeted • Regional • Iraq War 2003 • Failed Israeli-Syrian Peace Process • Withdrawal from Lebanon, and accusations of assassinations • Arab Cold War: Sunni/Moderate Axis vs Shiite/Resistance Axis • International • “War on Terror” & Deterioration of US-SYR Relations
MAIN REBEL GROUPS • Islamic State in Iraq and Levant (ISIL/ISIS) (داعش) • Al Nusra Front (جبهة النصرة) • Islamic Front (الجبهة الاسلامية) • Revolutionary Front of Syria (جبهة ثوار سوريا) • Syria Military Command/Free Syrian Army (القيادة العسكرية العليا/الجيش الحر)
SPILLOVER: LEBANON • Political Impact—Tensions in forming Cabinet and Electing President. • Security Impact—Car bombs, suicide attacks, clashes with security forces. • Economic Impact—Loss of over 8 billion in tourism and 28 million in trade. • Refugees—Over 1million registered refugees (27% of Lebanese Population).
SPILLOVER: JORDAN • Political Impact— Increase in tensions; several protests breaking out. • Security Impact—Clashes on border, smuggling and arms trafficking. • Economic Impact—High Unemployment, escalating rents and the rising prices of basic goods. • Refugees– 600,000 registered refugees (10% of Jordan’s population).
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