Current Surveys of Manufacturing and Services

1. Current Surveys of Manufacturing and Services An Overview of the Manufacturing and Services Programs Ron Farrar Service Sector Statistics Division 18 June 2011 0:00

2. Overview of Manufacturing and Services Topic Areas • Importance of Manufacturing and Services Estimates • Annual Surveys • Quarterly/Monthly Surveys • Survey Processing • Benchmarking • Data Dissemination • Major Data Users • Story ideas • Wrap Up – strengths and weaknesses 1:34

3. Importance of Manufacturing and Service industry estimates • Provide the most comprehensive and timely data on Manufacturing and Services activity in the US • Significant inputs into estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) • Estimates influence financial markets and affect business decisions • Provide indications of current economic trends 2:08

4. Finance Numbers Reveal the Recession 2:41

5. “Nearly 50 cents of every dollar spent on health care in this country is spent by federal, state or local government.” Rep. Paul Ryan “The Path to Prosperity” 5:06

6. Demo data 6:20

7. Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) • Annual since 1949 covering manufacturing sector (NAICS 31-33) • Published in years not covered by Economic Census • Sample of 50,000 manufacturing establishments • Supplemented by 200,000 administrative payroll records 8:22

8. Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) • Uses • Gross Domestic Product estimates • Index of Industrial Production • Producer Price Index weighting • To benchmark other manufacturing surveys • M3 • MECS • Current Industrial Reports (CIRs) • General purpose business indicator 9:19

9. Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) • Mandatory survey, establishment based • High response rate • Extensive mail and telephone follow-up • Reviewed by staff of approximately 75 professional statisticians • Publication – Thanksgiving of the following year • i.e. 2010 ASM published Thanksgiving 2011 10:08

10. Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) • Data available • Industries at the six-digit NAICS level (1998-present) • Industries at SIC level (1949-1996) • Approximately 70 data items covering • Shipments • Costs • Employment • Inventories • Capital Expenditures • Approximately 1500 product classes 10:38

11. Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM) • Data Available (continued) • State industry data (4-digit NAICS) for major items where significant (> 950) employment exists • Data available on American Fact Finder (AFF); located on www.census.gov under “Annual Economic Surveys” 11:26

12. Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) • Conducted monthly since 1957 • NAICS Sector 31-33 (Manufacturing) • Based upon data from manufacturing establishments with $500 million or more in annual shipments • Voluntary survey 12:08

13. Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) • Data Items Collected • Shipments • New Orders (net of cancellations) • Unfilled Orders • End-of-Month Inventories • Materials and Supplies • Work-in-process • Finished Goods Inventories • Advance Report • Highly Sensitive Indicator • Published about 18 working days following the reference month • Full Report • Includes durable and non-durable manufacturing estimates • Published about 23 working days following the reference month 12:40

14. Service Annual Survey (SAS) • NAICS Sectors: • 22, Utilities • 48/49, Transportation & Warehousing • 51, Information • 52, Finance & Insurance • 53, Real Estate & Rental & Leasing • 54, Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services • 56, Administrative & Support and Waste Management & Remediation Services • 61, Educational Services • 62, Health Care and Social Assistance • 71, Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation • 81, Other Services (except Public Administration) 13:47

15. Service Annual Survey (SAS) • Sample of 70,000 companies • Mandatory survey with high response • Estimates benchmarked to the Economic Census • Data items collected • Revenue • E-commerce Revenue • Expenses • Data typically released in December of the year following the reference period, i.e. December 2010 for 2009 survey data 15:15

16. Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) • Conducted Quarterly since 2004 • First new Census Bureau indicator in over 30 years. • NAICS Sectors: Coverage equal to SAS • Sample of 17,000 companies • Sub-sample of SAS • Voluntary Survey 16:22

17. Quarterly Services Survey (QSS) • Data Items Collected • Revenue • Class of Customer (Sectors 51, 54, & 56) • Business • Household • Government • Total discharges and number of in-patient days (hospitals) 17:08

18. Survey Processing • Mailout (includes faxed questionnaires) • Data Collection • Completed questionnaires are mailed or faxed back by respondents. • Internet reporting for M3, QSS, ASM and SAS. • Use of online reporting has grown steadily in recent years. • Fax reminders and telephone follow-up for delinquent respondents and edit failures. 17:37

19. Survey Processing • Tabulation • Data edits identify cases that are inconsistent with previous reporting or are growing or declining faster than similar cases. • Put all responses on a calendar basis. • Impute for non-response based on response data of similar cases. • same approximate sales size • same kind of business 17:44

20. Benchmarking • Once a year we benchmark the QSS estimates to the SAS estimates and the M3 to the ASM. • The sampling error of the estimates is lower in the annual surveys. • Annual samples are larger than the quarterly samples. • Annual samples are mandatory and have better response. • Every 5 years we benchmark the quarterly and annual estimates to the Economic Census. 20:28

21. Data Dissemination • Press Release • Manufacturer’s Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) • Quarterly Services Survey • Service Annual Survey • Electronic • American Fact Finder for ASM • Census Bureau website: www.census.gov tables in Excel format • White House Briefing Room • CIDR for indicator data releases 20:32

22. Data demo 22:06

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26. Major Data Users • Leading Economic Indicators – used by policy makers, investors, large companies, consultants, etc. • Users • Federal Reserve Board – economic trends • Bureau of Economic Analysis- GDP • Council of Economic Advisors – economic analysis • Large service Firms – economic conditions and market analysis • Financial Markets – Wall Street and other markets • Consultants • Market Research Firms • Academia 26:56

27. Story Ideas – Manufacturing & Services • Example Headlines • Newspaper Publishers down 26.4% since 2005 • Motion Picture Industry down 11.1% in first quarter 2011 • Largest single quarter drop since 2006 • The 11.1% trend reflects seasonal adjustment • Dentists up 9.1% in first quarter 2011 • This follows roughly two years of declines • Total number of production workers in manufacturing down 4.5% since 1997 • Aircraft industry runs opposite to this trend; up 13.3% • Kilowatt hours per employee in manufacturing up 36.8% since 1997 27:03

28. Story Ideas – Manufacturing & Services • Example Headlines • Photofinishing down 48.7% since 2001 • Decline decelerated to just ( -2.7% ) between 2008 and 2009 • Revenue for Casinos up 47% since 2001, • declined slightly ( -2.7% ) between 2008 and 2009 • Grew 9.1% in first quarter 2011 • Architectural services rebounds from lagging 2009 and early 2010 with 12.5% year to year increase for 2010/11 • One of the last service industries to rebound from the recession • The value of manufacturers new orders decreased 1.2% between March & April 2011, having increased 3.8% from February to March 30:04

29. Wrap-up and Overview • Annual Estimates • Detailed estimates that include additional data items beyond core items • Estimates not as timely • Mandatory response • Larger sample size • More reliable • Quarterly/Monthly Estimates • Estimates at a higher level and include core data items • Estimates available shortly after reference period • Voluntary response • Small sample size • Less reliable 33:04

30. Thank You! • Website address: www.census.gov • Contact Information U.S. Census Bureau 301-763-3030 33:38