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Macro-Conflict Analysis for Emergencies, Development & Advocacy

This document outlines World Vision International's experience using the Making Sense of Turbulent Contexts (MSTC) tool for conflict analysis from 2002 to 2011. Designed to navigate complex political landscapes, MSTC stems from Philippe Le Billon’s insights on the political economy of war. Through 36 workshops across 21 countries, 28 local participants engage in practical analysis, identifying actor groups, symptoms and causes of instability, and strategic needs. This report includes a detailed MSTC workshop schedule, facilitator preparations, and an evaluation framework.

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Macro-Conflict Analysis for Emergencies, Development & Advocacy

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  1. Macro-Conflict Analysis for Emergencies, Development & Advocacy One International NGO’s Experience 2002-2011 1 World Vision International

  2. What is MSTC? • “Making Sense of Turbulent Contexts” • World Vision’s custom-designed conflict analysis tool • Inspired by Philippe Le Billon’s work on political economy of war (“winners” & “losers”) • 3.5 day workshop with 28 local participants, drawn from civil society • Always “in the field” 2 World Vision International

  3. Conflict Analysis Tools 3 World Vision International

  4. MSTCs since 2003: 36 workshops, 21 countries, 8 years, 4 languages* *English, Spanish, French, Bahasa Indonesia 4 World Vision International

  5. Group Relationship Political Economy ofInstability Symptoms & Causes Looking to the Future The Past to the Present Rapid History OperationalImplications Actor Groups &Characteristics Integration Triggers & Scenarios Strategic Needs MSTCMapping MSTC Analysis Cycle

  6. General Schedule Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Final check of all local travel, logistics, andsupplies. (Optional)FacilitationTeamTraining (Optional) Facilitation Team Training Facilitator Preparations Rest Facilitation Team Meeting/Reflection RoomPreparation Evaluation of facilitators and content check Rest Analysis &Write-Up MSTC Workshop (8:30 a.m.-5 p.m. MSTC Workshop(8:30 a.m.-5 p.m. MSTC Workshop(8:30 a.m.-5 p.m. MSTC Workshop(1pm-5pm) Presentation & Discussion: Recommendations to N.O. Senior Leadership *Distribution of workshop notes to all participants Travel National office edits workshop notes and Plans tele-conference in 4 weeks to present final report to the organisation. *Facilitation team will deliver 10-12 page final report within 4 weeks of workshop end. Key Facilitation Team WorkshopParticipants

  7. MSTC AgendaPlease do NOT distribute to participants in advance

  8. So what does an MSTC look like?

  9. Timeline

  10. Symptoms & Causes

  11. Resource Mapping

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