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Adaptation of forest operations to a changing climate

Adaptation of forest operations to a changing climate. Dr. Georgios Xenakis and Duncan Ray Ecology Division Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin Midlothian EH25 9SY, UK Email: georgios.xenakis@forestry.gsi.gov.uk 5 th November 2008 Silver Springs Hote, Cork

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Adaptation of forest operations to a changing climate

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  1. Adaptation of forest operations to a changing climate Dr. Georgios Xenakis and Duncan Ray Ecology Division Forest Research, Northern Research Station, Roslin Midlothian EH25 9SY, UK Email: georgios.xenakis@forestry.gsi.gov.uk 5th November 2008 Silver Springs Hote, Cork Mitigating climate change: The challenges and opportunities for Forestry in Ireland

  2. What is climate change ‘Climate change’ refers to a change in the state of the climatethat can beidentified (e.g., using statistical tests) by changesin the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and thatpersists for an extended period, typicallydecades or longer. Climate change may be due to internalprocessesand/or external forcings. Some external influences, such aschanges in solar radiation and volcanism, occur naturally andcontribute tothe total natural variability of the climate system.Other external changes,such as the change in composition ofthe atmosphere that began with theindustrial revolution, arethe result of human activity. IPCC 4th assessment report: WG1 Report “The physical science basis” Chapter 9 pp.667

  3. Urgent need to provide knowledge and guidance to continue to sustainably manage and maintain resilient forests and woodlands well adapted to climate change Adapting to climate change

  4. Atmospheric CO2 and temperature: love or hate relationship

  5. CO2 concentrations: the last millenium Projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations for a range of global population and economic growth scenarios Source - Ernst (2007) Woods Hole

  6. IPCC emissions scenarios Source SRES (2000) IPCC Special Report, WMO/UN

  7. Accumulated temperature 1961 - 1990 2000 - 2050 2050 - 2080 Mar–Oct increase of 200-300 day.degrees (15%) across Ireland by 2080

  8. Moisture Deficit 1960 -1990 2050 - 2080

  9. What do we expect for the future? Wetter winter and drier summers Winter • Shallow and restricted rooting • Increased risk of wind disturbance • Soil damage – winter operations Summer • Increased risk of summer drought stress • Drought restricted growth Warmer climate Winter • Milder winters • Dormancy, autumn frost, pests and diseases Summer • Warmer & longer growing season • Increased growth (water & nutrients not limiting) • Better quality broadleaved species • Increased flowering and seed production

  10. How to adapt forest management? • Which species will grow? • Where should they come from? • What type of silviculture? • Where do we get all these information?

  11. The CLIMADAPT project • CLIMADAPT project: • within the CLIM-IT programme of research • Funded by COFORD’s 2007-2013 forest research programme • Objective: • Develop a decision support methodology, similar to ESC, using soil and climatic information for Ireland that can be used to assess changes in species suitability and yield resulting from different climate scenarios

  12. Ecological Site Classification ESC FACTORS Accumulated temperature OUTPUTS Moisture deficit Tree species suitability • Windiness ESC yield prediction Continentality Native woodland suitability Soil Moisture Regime Soil Nutrient Regime INPUTS Grid Reference Elevation ECOLOGICAL SITE CLASSIFICATION SITE TYPE Soil type rooting depth, stones, texture Lithology & soil type Humus form Indicator plants, %cover

  13. Species suitable at multiple scales Regional National Catchment Stand Landscape

  14. CLIMADAPT methodology • Methodology • Climate • Global circulation model for present and future • AT, MD, DAMS • Delphi process June 2007 • Species suitability threshold • Soil grid • Develop suitability curves • Validate against data (when available, e.g., Sitka spruce) • Build Graphic User Interface (GUI) and related technology

  15. Provenances - Climate matching Source: Broadmeadow et al. 2005, Forestry 78(2)

  16. Insects and pathogens

  17. Wind storms

  18. Annual weather & extreme events

  19. Frequency of high MD (>=200mm) for A2 Actual Predicted Frequency (years per decade) North North No data N-S transect South South

  20. Frequency of high MD (>=200mm) for A2 Actual Predicted East No data Drought frequency (years per decade) W-E transect West

  21. Adaptation recommendations Climate • Warmer climate • Increased growth (>1 YC) • Faster growth of pests • Wetter in winter – drier in summer • Increased winter water logging – shallower roots • Reduced tree stability Species choice and where • Droughty soils unsuitable for spruce • More Douglas fir in S & E – more drought tolerant • More pedunculate oak less ash, beech • S & E more favourable for quality broadleaves • Colonisation of ‘non-native’ trees • Climate change tolerant species – Monterey pine, southern beech (rauli and roble) • Climate tolerant provenances from NW France Silviculture • Continuous Cover Forestry (CCF) – LISS • Mixed species stands • Mixed structure & age class stands Risk management • Increased windthrow • Invertebrate pests – e.g. green spruce aphid, bark beetles Strategic planning • DSS & Knowledge management – strategic and operational planning with CLIMADAPT

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