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Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges

Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges. T. X. Hammes August 2007. Marine Palm Pilot. Purpose. How and why warfare changes Recent evolutions in fourth generation Potential fifth generation What’s after that. 4GW is Just a Model . Varied terminology used in descriptions

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Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges

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  1. Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007

  2. Marine Palm Pilot

  3. Purpose • How and why warfare changes • Recent evolutions in fourth generation • Potential fifth generation • What’s after that

  4. 4GW is Just a Model • Varied terminology used in descriptions • Toffler’s Waves • Forms of Energy • Generations of RMAs • Fourth Generation Construct • Focus on modern war • Simple • AQ uses it

  5. War Reflects Society • Economic • Political • Social • Technology “Military institutions and the manner in which they employ violence depended on the economic, social and political conditions of their respective states.” On War, Clausewitz, Paret translation, pg. 6.

  6. Four Generations • Massed Manpower – Napoleonic • Massed Firepower – WW I • Mechanized War – WW II • Insurgency (information) – dominant since WW II

  7. Fourth Generation War

  8. China • Mao – Political struggle is PRIMARY • Organized all of society • Three phases • One – Political organization • Two – Guerrilla fight –“change correlation of forces” • Three – Conventional fight – ONLY after Phase II is successful • First to write it down

  9. Vietnam • Imitated and improved on Mao • Used international networks to change correlation of forces • Tet 68 disaster tactically, strategic victory • Used political power to negate US military power • Still ended with conventional invasion

  10. Nicaragua • Coalition of insurgent groups • NEVER sought military victory • Target was US Congress • International media, celebrities, mainline Christian churches • Defeated Somoza politically • No Phase III offensive

  11. Palestinians – Intifada I • First Intifada spontaneous eruption • Organized within weeks • Loosely affiliated – “self organizing web” • Never even had a military aspect • Multiple messages • International – children vs. powerful army • Israelis – Israel proper safe, occupied zone unsafe • Palestinians – We are holding our own • Result – 1993 Oslo Accords

  12. Intifada I - Children vs ArmyThe Lasting Images

  13. Al Aqsa Intifada • Reverses roles • Israel back to besieged • Palestinians back to ruthless terrorists • US position • No negotiation until terror stops • Supports Israeli security techniques • Includes seizure of more territory on West Bank

  14. Al Aqsa Intifada – Oppression

  15. Suicide Bombers

  16. Afghans vs. Soviets • No unified resistance – changing coalitions • Essentially tribal = network • Overlaid religious and xenophobic aspects • Massive killing failed • Broke Soviet will

  17. Al Qaeda • “Fourth Generation Wars have ... proven the superiority of the weaker power.” Ubeid al-Qurashi Jan 2002 • Proto-typical non-nation state 4GW enemy • Transnational coalition of willing • Idea based • Global network of local insurgents • Strategic guidance is vertical • Tactical support is horizontal

  18. Iraq • Classic 4GW approach • "The war is very long, and always think of this as the beginning. And always make the enemy think that yesterday was better than today.'‘ ZARQAWI • Tribal, ethnic and religious networks • Was Network of the willing • Sunni Salifi, Sunni secular, Shia radicals, Free Lancers, Foreign Jihadists • Now the predictable civil war

  19. Hizbollah-Israeli Summer War • Hizb understood political aspects • Built political base – services • Fought political fight • Saw victory is secured after fighting • High-low mix • Long range missiles Israeli focus • 122mm Rockets most effective • Technological surprise – C802, UAV • Lateral escalation!

  20. Will we go back to 3GW? • War is “contest of opposing wills” • Cost of hightech vs insurgency • Record of success • Conventional = Status quo • Unconventional = Change • 5-0 versus Superpowers

  21. 4th Generation – Insurgency Evolved • Direct attack on minds of decision makers • Uses all available networks – political, economic, social and military • Superior political will defeats greater economic and military power. • Wars are measured in decades. Political, Protracted, Networked

  22. Key Changes in 4GW since Mao • Strategic Shift • Organizational Shift • Participants Increase • Weapons

  23. Strategic Shift –Insurgents’ View • NOT a military campaign • Strategic Communications Campaign • Supported by interagency efforts • Military action is NOT primary • Military action cannot solve the problem

  24. Operational Shift • Coalition of the willing • Afghanistan, Chechnya, Iraq • Often hate each other • Transdimensional • Identify, recruit, indoctrinate, train, deploy, control • Attack • Fund

  25. Participants • Armed groups • Clans, tribes • Criminals • Private Military Companies • State use as well

  26. Weapons ofMass Disruption Previous Incidents

  27. Anthrax and Ricin Capitol Hill Included a warning and instructions

  28. Bombings Madrid London

  29. Weapons ofMass Destruction Practical Methods

  30. Chemical: Bhopal One temporary morgue Killed = 15,000 Long term injury = 200,000

  31. HYE: Oklahoma City Truckload of Ammonium Nitrate

  32. Texas City Ship Explosion Rail Cars – 3 / 4 Mile from zero

  33. HYE: Texas City Ship Explosion Shipload of Ammonium Nitrate

  34. Summary of 4GW • Conflict is now Strategic Communications • Focus is outsiders • Internal conflict still bloody • Enemy will be shifting “coalition of the willing” • Many more players with various motivations • Cheaper, deadlier weapons

  35. Fifth Generation Emerges

  36. S CurvesInnovation/Technology Development Maturation Institutionalization Rapid Growth Adoption Experimentation Innovation

  37. Generations of War 5th – All of Society 4th – All of Govt. 3d – Combined Arms Prevalence/Performance 2d – Branches Time

  38. 5GW Incubating Now • Political – Pressure on nation state • Economic – Smaller Entities • Social – Loyalty to cause not nation • Technology - Bio tech, Nano-tech, Always on Net

  39. Foreshadowing • Attacks • Capitol Hill -- anthrax - no information • London, Madrid – bombs – no connection • Increasing “cause” attacks • Earth Liberation, Animal Liberation Fronts • Several areas – cyber, nano, bio • Biological advances • Synthetic biology – Dr. Venter • Australians and Mouse Pox • Carlson’s Curve • British student

  40. 5GW Goal • Stop Globalization • Potential “coalition of the willing” • Globalization losers • Fundamentalist movements • Environmental radicals • Destroy ‘trust’ – inhibit movement • Information – physical not cyber • Personnel – relationships • Material - containers

  41. Nightmare 5GW • Super empowered individual or small group • Uses increasing power of knowledge creates “off the shelf” technology • Loyalty to “cause” not nation Anthrax on Capitol Hill Smallpox Worldwide

  42. Beyond 5GW

  43. Rate of Change • Kurzweil’s SINGULARITY • Change is exponential not linear • Overestimate in short term • Underestimate in long term

  44. Bottom Line 21st Century will not bring 100 years of progress It will be 20,000 years

  45. Additional Information www.d-n-i.net “The Sling and the Stone” txhammes@excite.com

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