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Will the Class of 2025 Attend Dartmouth in Hanover or Online?

Will the Class of 2025 Attend Dartmouth in Hanover or Online? . October 4 th , 2011. Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director. Source: Seattle Times , Tuesday, January 26, 2010. My frame of reference. Motivations: Increased access to opportunity Wicked problems Impatient actors

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Will the Class of 2025 Attend Dartmouth in Hanover or Online?

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  1. Will the Class of 2025 Attend Dartmouth in Hanover or Online? October 4th, 2011 Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director Source: Seattle Times, Tuesday, January 26, 2010

  2. My frame of reference • Motivations: • Increased access to opportunity • Wicked problems • Impatient actors • Enlightened self interest • Private sector: • Strategy and management consultant • Software entrepreneur • MBA • Nonprofit sector: • Consultant to National Park Service, charter schools, and health services • Foundation program officer – innovative technology and delivery in postsecondary ed Class of 2028 Class of 2031 Class of 2032

  3. Higher education at a crossroads • The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work • Disrupting college? • Unbundled learning? • Potential opportunities for Dartmouth

  4. U.S. higher education at a crossroads

  5. Predictions for higher ed in 2020 • More students • Higher completion rates • Lower cost per student • Smaller chunks of learning • More, measurable indicators of learning

  6. Four challenges for the next decade Quality challenge • Increasing demands from global economy • Questioning what students are really learning Completion challenge • Middle skill job demand • Stagnant ~40% AA+ attainment levels • Low completion rates Funding challenge • State budget cuts • Limits to student and family ability to pay and to borrow Demographic challenge • Increasing diversity • Low academic readiness • “Non-traditional” new normal

  7. Jobs in today’s (and tomorrow’s) workforce require more education Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf

  8. The college access agenda has been a success… Postsecondary fall enrollment 1963-2005 Source: IPEDS

  9. …But degree attainment rates are flat Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance 2009” (All rates are self-reported) 9

  10. Why? Low completion rates – our dirty little secret Percentage of students expecting to earn credentialswho had earned a credential within five years 73% 61% 55% 53% 38% Source: NELS 1988

  11. The quality of degrees themselves is being questioned • Study of 2,300 undergraduates at two dozen universities who took the Collegiate Learning Assessment • 45 percent “demonstrated no significant gains in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and written communications during the first two years of college” • 32 percent of the students whom they followed did not, in a typical semester, take “any courses with more than 40 pages of reading per week • 50 percent “did not take a single course in which they wrote more than 20 pages over the course of the semester”

  12. Tuition and fees are growing rapidly… Source: New York Times

  13. Source: Association of American Publishers (AAP) …And state funding is declining

  14. Meanwhile, student demographics are increasingly nontraditional • “Traditional” • Enter college directly after high school • Enroll fulltime • Financially dependent on their parents 25% • “Non-traditional” • Financially independent (>50%) • Have dependents of their own (27%) • Work full time (38%) • Enroll part time (49%) 75% Source: The Other 75%: Government Policy & Mass Higher Education., Paul Attewell (unpublished).

  15. Higher education at a crossroads • The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work • Disrupting college? • Unbundled learning? • Potential opportunities for Dartmouth

  16. 100% 12-39% 1-28% 3% 5% 8% 14% 30% Education is the primary arbiter of opportunity in the U.S. Composition of total intergenerational correlation between parent and children’s income, by transmission channel Education of parents Race of head of household Health status of parents State of residence Female-headed household Financial assets Unexplained (e.g., motivation, social networks, community, norms) Total inter-generational correlation = 0.431 (1.0 would be perfectly correlated) Source: Hertz. 2006 Center for American Progress, “Understanding Mobility in America”

  17. 2 Higher education is not equitably distributed Bachelor’s Degree attainment by age 24 Source: Mortenson, Thomas (2009). Family Income and Educational Attainment. 1970 – 2008. Postsecondary Education Opportunity. No 209, Nov 2009.

  18. The Gates Foundation’s work in the U.S. All young people who have the will to get a postsecondary credential should have the way to do it U.S. Program Goal College-Ready Postsecondary Success Graduate all students college-ready Helping all young people reach their full potential Help all young people get degrees that count

  19. Gates Foundation postsecondary priorities • Focusing on completion, not just access, in our measurement, funding, and financial aid systems • Accelerating time to a degree through restructuring developmental education and bridging the gaps between high school and college • Unlocking the power of technology to personalize learning and student progression  1 2 3

  20. Why is any of this relevant for Dartmouth?

  21. Higher education at a crossroads • The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work • Disrupting college? • Unbundled learning? • Potential opportunities for Dartmouth

  22. How ready are institutions to rise to the challenges of the next decade? “In the view of many college and university presidents, the three main factors in higher education—cost, quality, and access—exist in what we call an iron triangle. These factors are linked in an unbreakable reciprocal relationship, such that any change in one will inevitably impact the others.” - Public Agenda research on opinions of higher education presidents Source: The Iron Triangle: College Presidents Talk About Costs, Access, and Quality, Public Agenda, October 2008.

  23. Or said another way…

  24. Dartmouth is one of the lucky ones with a choice in the matter Private not-for-profit Public 2-year Private for-profit Public 4-year

  25. Disruptive Innovation is the process by which A Sector That ……. • with complicated products services… • that were expensive and inaccessible…. • And served only a limited few sophisticated customers…… Is transformed into one which… • Offers products and services that… • Are simple, affordable and convenient serving…. • Many…no matter their wealth and expertise How? • Redefines quality in a simple often disparaged application • Slowly improves taking for market share by taking on complicated problems • Without replicating cost structure Source: Center for American Progress

  26. Disruptive Innovation Process Non-consumption Functionality Reliability Simplicity Cost Reduction Source: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael Horn

  27. Process of disruptive innovation Sophisticated customers not interested New Customers, less complex needs, expectations Move up market without replicating cost structure Source: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael Horn Source: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael Horn

  28. 25–30% 55% 22% 18% 8% 12% 4% 7% How does this play out? % of tons Sheet steel Steel Quality Structural Steel Quality of integrated mills’ steel Angle iron; bars & rods Quality of minimill-produced steel Rebar 1975 1985 1980 1990 Source: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael Horn

  29. Three interrelated disruptive innovations? Online Education Technology-powered business models DIY U Source: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael Horn

  30. % new % old 10.0 1.0 0.1 .01 .001 .0001 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 1. Online education: how fast is it growing? % new Source: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael Horn

  31. Projection: 50% of all students will be taking at least one online course by 2014 Percentage of college students taking at least one online course, divided by students who did not take an online course Source: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael Horn

  32. Source: Clayton M. Christensen, Michael Horn Questions of online learning quality Student achievement in on-line courses when administered by focused on-line faculty Student achievement in on-line courses when administered by faculty in core Student achievement in traditional classes taught by faculty in core 5.7 5.6 4.6

  33. 2. Technology-powered business models: relevant for elite institutions?

  34. 3. DIY U: Is this how the most talented, motivated, and self-directed will learn?

  35. Higher education at a crossroads • The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work • Disrupting college? • Unbundled learning? • Potential opportunities for Dartmouth

  36. What society wants from college? • Knowledge & Skills • Facilitation • Socialization • Accreditation Why have these functions historically been bundled? Scarcity What happens when we go from scarcity to abundance? Can they be unbundled?

  37. Knowledge & skills in abundance? 2,000 MIT courses, many with lecture capture 2,400 lessons, delivered 78,406,600 times – and counting

  38. Facilitation in abundance?

  39. Socialization in abundance?

  40. Accreditation in abundance?

  41. Top tier institutions have often led the push to abundance • Knowledge & Skills  MIT, Yale • Facilitation  Stanford, USC • Socialization  Harvard, GA Tech • Accreditation  ??? • Can Dartmouth define itself not by its scarcity, but by its abundance – who it invites in, what it shares, how it engages?

  42. Higher education at a crossroads • The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work • Disrupting college? • Unbundled learning? • Potential opportunities for Dartmouth

  43. Dartmouth is one of the lucky institutions with choices Disrupting college • Unbundled learning • Knowledge & Skills • Facilitation • Socialization • Accreditation • Online education • Technology-powered business models • DIY U ?

  44. A few idea sparks • Expand online and blended graduate programs • Add OSP – Online Study Program – to FSP list • Require one online course for graduation – the “swim test” of the 21st century • Experiment with MOOCs – Massive Open Online Courses • Accredit a general education core of online courses available to all • Partner with a corporate university and become their accredited partner • Provide your advocacy voice to the completion agenda and better measures of learning • What do you think Dartmouth should do?

  45. Thank You Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director Education – Postsecondary Success josh.jarrett@gatesfoundation.org www.gatesfoundation.org

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