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Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

THE 2012 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON SUDDENLY BECAME ACTIVE WITH 4 ADDITIONAL HURRICANES SECOND HALF September 5 –November 30, 2012. Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA. 2012’S STORM TRACKS (as of September 8).

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Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

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  1. THE 2012 ATLANTIC BASIN HURRICANE SEASON SUDDENLY BECAME ACTIVE WITH 4 ADDITIONAL HURRICANES SECOND HALFSeptember 5 –November 30, 2012 Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

  2. 2012’S STORM TRACKS (as of September 8)

  3. NAMED STORMS IN 2012 (Continued) • ISAAC – Hurricane, August 21 • JOYCE –Tropical Storm, Aug. 25 • KIRK –Hurricane, Aug. 27 • LESLIE –Hurricane, Sept. 3 • MICHAEL – Hurricane, Sept. 4 • NADINE – Tropical Storm, Sept. 12

  4. NAMED STORMS IN 2012 • OSCAR – Tropical Storm, Oct. 4 • PATTY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 11 • RAFAEL – Hurricane, Oct. 12 • SANDY – Hurricane, Oct. 22 • TONY – Tropical Storm, Oct. 24 • VALERIE • WILLIAM

  5. The 2012 season is lagging behind past seasons:By Sept. 5, 2005, we had three major hurricanes (Dennis, Emily, and Katrina),and by Sept. 5, 2011, we had one major hurricane (Katia). This year, we have one-- Michael.

  6. ISAAC: FROM TS ON AUG, 21 TO HURRICANE ON AUG. 26

  7. ISAAC DID NOT RETURN IN THE GULF AS TS NADINE: SEPT 12

  8. LESLIE: FROM A TS ON SEPT 3 TO HURRICANE ON SEPT 5

  9. SEPT 8: CAT 1 HURRICANE LESLIE IS HEADED SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARDS BERMUDA AND CANADA

  10. SEPT 9: LESLIE PASSES 120 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA

  11. TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL: FAR OUT IN ATLANTIC—SEPT. 4

  12. Between 5 a.m. on Wednesday and 5 a.m. Thursday, Michael’s pressure suddenly fell 40 mb and the maximum sustained winds increased by 63 mph, truly a remarkable case of rapid intensification

  13. MICHAEL BECOMES CAT 3 HURRICANE: SEPT. 6

  14. Michael, the 7th hurricane of 2012 and located 980 miles west-southwest of the Azores and heading northeast at 7 mph, will likely weaken as it encounters colder waters..

  15. MICHAEL’S PATH: SEPT. 6

  16. MICHAEL’S ULTIMATE PATH

  17. On Sept. 7th, the seasonal ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) (using the 1981-2010 data base), stood at 61, or 143% of an average season.

  18. BUT---ON SEPTEMBER 12, 2012 A LULL IN ACTIVITY OCCURED AS EL NINO BEGAN AGAIN

  19. SEPT. 12: EL NINO BEGINS AGAIN

  20. Depending on how quickly El Niño develops, there could be a quick shutdown of tropical systems during the latter part of the Atlantic season and an extended season on the Pacific side.

  21. TROPICAL STORM NADINE: SEPT. 12

  22. TROPICAL STORM NADINE BECAME A CAT 1 HURRICANE ON SEPT. 14th Because of its location in the Azores, Nadine, the 8th hurricane of the season, did not cause any major concerns in spite of its unusually long life.

  23. TROPICAL STORM OSCAR FORMED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ON OCT. 4th Oscar, the 15th storm of 2012, was not expected to last very long or to cause any major problems.

  24. TROPICAL STORM OSCAR DIED ON OCTOBER 5

  25. TROPICAL STORM PATTY FORMED NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS ON OCT. 11th Patty is the 16th storm of 2012.

  26. TROPICAL STORM PATTY

  27. TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORMED ON OCT. 12TH Rafael was the 18th storm and 9th hurricane of the season

  28. HURRICANE RAFAEL: A CAT 1 STORM ON OCTOBER 16

  29. TROPICAL STORM SANDY AKA “FRANKENSTORM” FORMED ON OCT. 22ND Sandy, the 19th storm of the season, quickly became a CAT 2 hurricane. SANDY left 39 dead in the Caribbean enroute to the USA.

  30. TROPICAL STORM SANDY: OCTOBER 22

  31. CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24

  32. OCTOBER 24: CAT I HURRRICANESANDY MADE LANDFALL NEAR KINGSTON, THE CAPITOL OF JAMACIA Schools and businesses were closed and people in low-lying areas at risk from flooding were evacuated

  33. FORECAST FOR SANDY: OCTOBER 24

  34. TROPICAL STORM TONY FORMED ON OCT. 24TH Tony, the 20th storm of the season, formed in the Atlantic, and is not likely to be a threat

  35. TROPICAL STORM TONY: OCTOBER 24

  36. SANDY: OCTOBER 24 Sandy, now the season’s ninth hurricane, became a huge storm with wind and rain bands reaching out 500 km or more from the storm center, producing 15-50 cm of rain in Jamaica, Bermuda, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Cuba

  37. LIKELY IMPACTS OF SANDY ON “FLORIDA SATURDAY”-- OCTOBER 27 • Miami, Florida, which is already water-logged from 1 ½ meters of rain this summer, is expected to experience more rain, gusty winds, huge waves, and dangerous rip tides as a likely weakened Sandy continues to move northward.

  38. CAT I HURRICANE SANDY: OCTOBER 24

  39. SANDY: RAIN IN HAITI

  40. SANDY IMPACTS HAVANA. CUBA: OCTOBER 25

  41. SANDY: RAIN IN CUBA

  42. SANDY: RAIN BEGINS IN FT LAUDERDALE, FLORIDA; OCT. 26

  43. POSSIBILITIES AFTER “FLORIDA SATURDAY” • Sandy could veer northeastward and eventually die in the Atlantic, OR, MORE LIKELY … • As Sandy moves northward, it could become a powerful “SUPERSTORM causing losses of $ 1 billion dollars + bringing heavy rain, high winds, and power outages along Eastern seaboard

  44. OCEAN CITY, MARYLAND

  45. REHOBOTH BEACH, DELAWARE: OCT. 29

  46. SUPER STORM SANDY: OCT. 29-30, 2012

  47. $360 MILLION STORM SURGE, NEW HAVEN, CT: OCT. 30

  48. OCT. 29 HIGHLIGHTS: NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY THE SUDDENNESS AND THE RECORD HEIGHT OF THE STORM SURGE CAUSED A HUGE DISASTER

  49. STORM SURGE SET NEW RECORD WITHOUT BENEFIT OF FULL-MOON HIGH TIDE 13 ft (4 1/3 m); a new record Sustained winds of 133 kph (80 mph).

  50. FLOODING IN BROOKLYN

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