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Dry Bulk Freight Outlook 2 nd Annual Conference Coal Market in India 2012

Dry Bulk Freight Outlook 2 nd Annual Conference Coal Market in India 2012. Dry Bulk Market And Indian Coal Perspective. Cape: 100k dwt and above; Pmax: 60k-99k, Smax: 35k-59k, Hsize: below 35k. Dry Bulk Freight Market Trend Continues to be in a state of E xtreme Weakness.

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Dry Bulk Freight Outlook 2 nd Annual Conference Coal Market in India 2012

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  1. Dry Bulk Freight Outlook 2nd Annual Conference Coal Market in India 2012

  2. Dry Bulk Market And Indian Coal Perspective Cape: 100k dwt and above; Pmax: 60k-99k, Smax: 35k-59k, Hsize: below 35k

  3. Dry Bulk Freight Market TrendContinues to be in a state of Extreme Weakness

  4. Coal Freight to IndiaHas followed the broader trend of Time Charter Rates

  5. Two Key Factors impacting the freight market over last 2 years1. Bunker Price- Have had an extreme Negative impact on Rates since 2011

  6. Two Key Factors impacting the freight market in last 2 years2. Fleet Supply has consistently outweighed Fleet Demand

  7. Supply Side Dynamics2012 another record year

  8. Supply Side DynamicsOutlook

  9. Scrapping, Layups and Slow Steaming continue to keep fleet supply growth in Check

  10. Steel ProductionReflecting the Weak Macro Fundamentals Globally

  11. Macro Fundamentals

  12. China Properties – In a Recovery phaseMonetary Policy – Coming to the Aid once more • PBOC reduced the benchmark interest rate for the 2nd time within a month. • On the same day • ECB cut the interest rate by 25 bps • BoE increased their asset purchase program by 50 bln pounds. • Fed already extended its operation twist by USD 267 bln, till the end of the year.

  13. Coal MovementChina Depressed – But Signs of improvement

  14. Coal MovementIndian Imports Hurt by Rupee Depreciation – But the fundamental deficit continues

  15. Iron-Ore exports – Will support the Cape market in 2h12

  16. India Iron-ore would create weakness in Pmax/Smax segments

  17. Nickel OreLow Demand from China and Export Restrictions in Indonesia

  18. Grains TradeUS grains export will provide a seasonal push to freight – weather a concern

  19. In Summary • Fleet growth would reduce by more than half in 2013 compared to 2011-12 pace. • Cargo growth would exceed supply only marginally, while the macro risk would remain at elevated levels. • Fundamental Weakness Remains but Volatility to continue. • Market would be better balanced post 2013, with an expectation of demand growth finally exceeding supply growth. But two major risk factors remain: • Europe blow out and a return to global recession would drastically reduce the prospects of demand growth. • A surge in new contracting of the new “economic ship” variety.

  20. Who are We ?

  21. At a glance LD Commodities Key Facts and Figures • World leader in the processing of agricultural products and the merchandising of a diverse range of commodities • Privately held, controlled by the Robert Louis-Dreyfus trust and approximately 20% employee-owned • Part of the Louis Dreyfus Group A vital player in the global food chain

  22. History A New Group With 160 Years of History 2006 1990s-2005 1851 1860-1900 1970s-80s • Adds processing operations in citrus and oilseeds to origination and marketing activities • Acquired sugar production in Brazil • Enters metals business Founded by Leopold Louis-Dreyfus trading grain in France and Switzerland • International operations serving Europe, the Americas, Africa and Asia • Begins futures trading The Group extends its agricultural activities to cotton, sugar, citrus, coffee Robert Louis- Dreyfus establishes his vision of the Louis Dreyfus Group: The Louis Dreyfus Group restructured into autonomous subsidiaries Creation of LDCommodities LDCommoditiesis rationalizedthrough a matrix organization: Regions/Platforms Asset-based strategy General Lagos (Argentina) 2007 2009 2010 2008 Pursuing growth, excellent financial performance, confirming benefits of diversification and asset-based strategy Enters the apple juice concentrate market (China) Acquisition of Cotton assets Pursuing logistics investments o/w Port Lampung (Indonesia),cereal terminal (Argentina) UN Global Compact signatory • Net sales US$ 34 bn, Fixed Assets above US$5.5 bn • Approx. 34,000 employees, offices in more than 55 countries • Acquisition of rapeseedcrushing plant in Wittenberg (Germany) • Merger of operations with Santelisa Vale (Brazil) to create LDC-SEV • Excellent profitability • Enters new local markets: Vietnam, Colombia, Ethiopia • Expands new product lines: fertilizers, milk… • Acquisition of four sugar mills in Brazil • Acquisition of the Bazhou oilseeds crushing plant in China Net sales doubled compared to 2006, well above US$35 bn Dedicated region set up: Middle East and Africa Expansion in Asia with acquisitions of an edible-oil refinery in India, and a stake in an Indonesian palm-oil plantation company Investment in Brazilian sugarcane processing facilities and plantations Kandla (India) Santa Elisa (Brazil) Bazhou (China) An ambition takes shape

  23. What Producing and Merchandising Major Agricultural Commodities PROTEINS TROPICALS LDC SEV OTHER Helping feed and clothe up to 450 million people

  24. Where Worldwide Geographical Scope where it all started expanding in the world’s largest export market rich challenges, rapid growth capturing production and consumption opportunities preparing the future abundant origination Strategically located, strategically diverse

  25. Where Selected Port Facilities GENERAL LAGOS, ARGENTINA Soybean Crush/Grain Export Terminal BAHIA BLANCA, ARGENTINA Deepwater Grain Export Terminal PORT CARTIER, CANADA DeepwaterTranshipment Port PORTLAND, OREGON Grain Export Terminal SEATTLE, WASHINGTON Deepwater Grain Export Terminal HOUSTON, TEXAS Grain Export Terminal A Major Exporter From Every Region of the World

  26. How T A Solid Presence at Every Step of the Value Chain Fixed-Asset Operator Intelligent Merchant OILSEEDS FOOD GRAINS PROTEINS RICE FEED JUICE COTTON TROPICALS COFFEE TEXTILE ORIGINATION & PRODUCTION PROCESSING & REFINING STORAGE & TRANSPORT PACKING & DISTRIBUTION SUGAR RESEARCH & MERCHANDISING LDC-SEV LDC SEV METALS FUEL MILK OTHER FERTILIZERS INDUSTRIAL Managing risk and adding value across the supply chain

  27. At a glance LD Commodities Ocean Freight • 45 million tons of cargo carried, equally balanced between LDC cargo and 3rd party customers including major global miners, utilities, and steel producers • Total fleet operations, spanning the Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, and Handysize segments, in excess of 63,000vessel days (~172 vessels) • A trusted partner and supplier, with an unmatched record of honoring its contractual commitments • Expansion driven by relationships with worldwide chartering organizations that engage our research, risk management, and logistics services to assist their operations Strength, Reputation, and Performance built over 160 years

  28. Where Worldwide Geographical Scope • Global team, with chartering offices covering all time zones • Global network of offices and logistics specialists in over 55 countries • Capable of providing a wide range of services: • Short term contracts, vessel leases, and spot cargo voyages • Long term contracts of affreightment (COA’s) • Ocean freight price risk management • Logistics services and support including ocean freight consultancy • Outsourced chartering and back office solutions Custom solutions for a global marketplace

  29. KunalKapoor Head of Research Ocean Freight Platform Office 91-124-4625 650 Mobile 91-9350 770 662 kunal.kapoor@ldcom.com Louis Dreyfus Commodities India Pvt. Ltd. 8th Floor, Tower A, Building No. 5, Cyber City, DLF Phase III Gurgaon For More Information

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