Hybrid Electric Vehicles meet the Electricity Grid: Plug-in Hybrids PHEVs Vehicle to Grid V2G

1. Hybrid Electric Vehicles meet the Electricity Grid:Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs)& Vehicle to Grid (V2G) Dr Geoff Walker Sustainable Energy Research Lab School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering University of Queensland

2. Talk Outline A Crisis in Passenger Vehicle Transport Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) � why bother? Vehicle to Grid (V2G) � the next step Vehicle Sales and HEV sales growth The Electricity Grid in Australia The National Electricity Market (NEM)

3. Drivers for change in the Australian Automobile Industry Reduce oil consumption � a finite resource Reduce oil imports to achieve increased energy security and improved balance of trade Reduce greenhouse gas emissions Reduce urban pollutant emissions Many more sensible reasons could be given: these four are perhaps the most topical and pressing.

4. The End of Cheap Oilby Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherr�reScientific AmericanMarch 1998Global production of conventional oil will begin to decline sooner than most people think, probably within 10 years What authority do the authors have? Are they just crackpots? The Authors COLIN J. CAMPBELL and JEAN H.LAHERR�RE have each worked in the oil industry for more than 40 years. After completing his Ph.D. in geology at the University of Oxford, Campbell worked for Texaco as an exploration geologist and then at Amoco as chief geologist for Ecuador. His decade-long study of global oil-production trends has led to two books and numerous papers. Laherr�re�s early work on seismic refraction surveys contributed to the discovery of Africa�s largest oil field. At Total, a French oil company, he supervised exploration techniques worldwide. Both Campbell and Laherr�re are currently associated with Petroconsultants in Geneva.What authority do the authors have? Are they just crackpots? The Authors COLIN J. CAMPBELL and JEAN H.LAHERR�RE have each worked in the oil industry for more than 40 years. After completing his Ph.D. in geology at the University of Oxford, Campbell worked for Texaco as an exploration geologist and then at Amoco as chief geologist for Ecuador. His decade-long study of global oil-production trends has led to two books and numerous papers. Laherr�re�s early work on seismic refraction surveys contributed to the discovery of Africa�s largest oil field. At Total, a French oil company, he supervised exploration techniques worldwide. Both Campbell and Laherr�re are currently associated with Petroconsultants in Geneva.

5. World oil production in decline by 2010

6. Has Demand exceeded Supply?

7. Has Demand exceeded Supply? Oil prices are now more than 45 per cent higher than a year ago, having gained 36 per cent in the past three months. But even the psychological $US70 a barrel mark would still be $US20 below the all-time inflation-adjusted peak price for crude oil set in 1980. Analysts said yesterday that the major reason for yesterday�s price spike was not concern about terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia or worry about Iran�s nuclear program. Rather, traders were punting on a belief that US oil refiners would strain to meet domestic petrol demand in coming weeks while also storing enough heating fuel for the northern hemisphere winter. Added to those supply problems was a report this week from the International Energy Agency revealing that non-OPEC nations were failing to deliver as much oil as expected this year, leaving a stretched OPEC to fill the void.

8. We�ve now passed US$70 barrel $100 per barrel in 12 months time ??? (if we project this trend despite the warning not to!)

9. Inflation corrected oil price Current high still not as bad as 1980

10. Aside � A DVD worth viewing THE END OF SUBURBIA: Oil Depletion and the Collapse of The American Dream http://www.endofsuburbia.com/ http://www.ebono.org/ Also worth a good read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hubbert_peak

11. Moving from Oil to sustainable energy generation In the near future, Oil production will fall, but energy consumption will continue to rise. We need to find fossil alternatives, preferably green and sustainable Ramping sustainable alternatives up will take time, money and land In the interim, we will swap to coal and gas, and (perhaps) curtail our consumption.

12. Reduction in Oil Imports and Increased Energy Security

13. Greenhouse gases (GHGs) in Australia from Transport In 2000, 15% of Australia�s GHG emissions are from transport sector [AGO, 2003] Road transport represents 90% of this total Cars contributed 45 Mt of CO2 equivalent emissions, or 8% of net national emissions in 2003. http://www.greenhouse.gov.au/inventory/2003/facts/pubs/02.pdf The Australian transport sector accounts for 73.9 million tonnes of Australia's total net greenhouse gas emissions, representing just over 16.1 per cent of Australia's total emissions. About 90.2 per cent of these emissions come from road transport, including cars, trucks and buses. Greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector are also the fastest growing emissions of any sector, rising by 20.3 per cent from 1990 levels. The Bureau of Transport Economics projects that, without reduction measures, emissions from the transport sector will rise by 38 per cent between 1990 and 2010. Under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Australia is committed to a target for national greenhouse gas emissions of eight per cent above 1990 levels by 2008-12. This represents about a 30 per cent reduction against current business-as-usual projections of greenhouse gas emissions for 2008-12.The Australian transport sector accounts for 73.9 million tonnes of Australia's total net greenhouse gas emissions, representing just over 16.1 per cent of Australia's total emissions. About 90.2 per cent of these emissions come from road transport, including cars, trucks and buses. Greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector are also the fastest growing emissions of any sector, rising by 20.3 per cent from 1990 levels. The Bureau of Transport Economics projects that, without reduction measures, emissions from the transport sector will rise by 38 per cent between 1990 and 2010. Under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Australia is committed to a target for national greenhouse gas emissions of eight per cent above 1990 levels by 2008-12. This represents about a 30 per cent reduction against current business-as-usual projections of greenhouse gas emissions for 2008-12.

14. Pollutant Emissions in Australia from Transport Fossil fuel combustion, particularly by motor vehicles, has been identified as the largest single contributor to urban air pollution. The Australian transport sector accounts for 73.9 million tonnes of Australia's total net greenhouse gas emissions, representing just over 16.1 per cent of Australia's total emissions. About 90.2 per cent of these emissions come from road transport, including cars, trucks and buses. Greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector are also the fastest growing emissions of any sector, rising by 20.3 per cent from 1990 levels. The Bureau of Transport Economics projects that, without reduction measures, emissions from the transport sector will rise by 38 per cent between 1990 and 2010. Under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Australia is committed to a target for national greenhouse gas emissions of eight per cent above 1990 levels by 2008-12. This represents about a 30 per cent reduction against current business-as-usual projections of greenhouse gas emissions for 2008-12.The Australian transport sector accounts for 73.9 million tonnes of Australia's total net greenhouse gas emissions, representing just over 16.1 per cent of Australia's total emissions. About 90.2 per cent of these emissions come from road transport, including cars, trucks and buses. Greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector are also the fastest growing emissions of any sector, rising by 20.3 per cent from 1990 levels. The Bureau of Transport Economics projects that, without reduction measures, emissions from the transport sector will rise by 38 per cent between 1990 and 2010. Under the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Australia is committed to a target for national greenhouse gas emissions of eight per cent above 1990 levels by 2008-12. This represents about a 30 per cent reduction against current business-as-usual projections of greenhouse gas emissions for 2008-12.

15. Solutions to this Crisis? Walk the kids to school and work from home Catch public transport, or Carpool Dust off the bicycle and ride Drive smaller, lighter cars Trust car companies to give us more of the same, only more efficient �

16. ICE efficiency Internal combustion engines, both petrol and diesel, can achieve only ave. efficiency when small and not optimised GEFG25-1 25kVA gas genset Ford 4 cyl, 4 stroke, 2.5 litre 492 kg ICE * gen efficiency = 22% * 89% = 20%

17. Toyota Prius vs Corolla 06 Prius, $37,000 RRP 4.4 L/100km 10.9 sec 0-100kph 1295 kg NHW20R Liftback 5dr CVT 1sp 1.5i

18. Prius Drivetrain 1.5 litre petrol ICE, 56kW Atkinson cycle (vs. Otto) 34% efficient at 13.5 hp Two 3ph permanent magnet motors: MG1, 18kW MG2, 30kW A planetary gear which allows a continuously variable drive ratio Sources: http://www.cleangreencar.co.nz

19. Prius Inverter and Battery Power electronic 3ph inverters matched to motors 50kW total at 500V liquid cooled under bonnet NimH battery pack: nominal 274V, 6.5 Ah (1.8 kWh) 20kW rating at 50% SOC Operated between 40-80% SOC for lifetime (0.7 kWh) Complete pack 54 kg including all management, packaging Toyota data demonstrates 290,000km without degredation Sources: http://www.cleangreencar.co.nz

20. Example Electric Vehicle � GM EV1

21. Hybrids vs. EVs Electric Vehicles (EVs) Large battery pack: Expensive Limited range Uncertain life Pure electric drivetrain Excellent energy efficiency Independence from oil Hybrids (HEVs) Minimised battery pack Cheaper Long range Manageable lifetime ICE based drivetrain Incremental efficiency gain 100% dependant on oil

22. Plug-in Hybrids (PHEVs) Typical vehicle usage is for Urban commuting 80% of trips are less than 10km and over 90% are less than 20km [1992 SEQ Household Travel Survey] So augment the Hybrid battery pack to allow electric only operation for limited range sufficient for daily commute (say 20km � PHEV20) Charge the battery from the electricity grid overnight � so this energy does not come from oil

23. Plug-in Prius EnergyCS Original Prius NimH pack replaced with 127kg Lithium-ion Batt pack 35-40Ah, 9kWhr 80-100km range at half the fuel consumption (but add some grid electricity) Uses off-the-shelf Valence Technology Saphion U Li-ion batteries. Sources: http://www.calcars.org/priusplus.html

24. Vehicle to Grid (V2G) PHEVs will mean we choose to plug in our hybrid or electric vehicle to the grid Rather than just another load, can these vehicles be harnessed as a resource? We need to make the grid connection to the battery through a powerful, bidirectional inverter, not just a battery charger. Why not use the traction motor inverter!

25. AC propulsion AC150 grid connection Using the 3 phase traction inverter gives: Large power rating (20kW) Instantly controllable real and reactive power flow 3ph or 1ph Built in, only Incremental cost http://www.acpropulsion.com/

26. Components of the V2G system

27. Services V2G can offer Frequency regulation: Contingency 6 sec 60 sec 5 min Voltage Regulation Recloser ride-thru

28. Services V2G can offer Note that the V2G services are usually about the provision of instantaneous real and reactive power as a service NOT about the supply of energy Battery pack capacity usually limits the peak shaving / load levelling capability Some hybrids can start Internal combustion engine and generate � but of limited value

29. Infrastructure Issues, especially in CBD? 32A 415V 3ph service per park Allows 23kW peak One floor = 160 cars = 3.7 MW! Dedicated 1MVA padmount txfmrs? Dedicated cabling?

30. Toyota is committed to Hybrids Prius is a speciality hybrid � available as nothing but a hybrid. However � Sixth generation Camry MY2007 will have three main powertrain options: 2.4 L Four 3.5 L V6 2.4 L four hybrid with 34kW electric motor Celica & MR2 being withdrawn mid 2006, a hybrid replacement will appear 2008. Hybrid Lexus SUV and luxury vehicles will be launched in 2006 and 2007

31. Toyota is committed to Hybrids Toyota Sees All-Hybrid Future 13 September 2005 Bloomberg. At the Frankfurt IAA, Toyota Executive Vice President Kazuo Okamoto said all of the company�s vehicles will eventually be based on hybrid powertrains. Toyota also indicated that it aims to increase hybrid production by 60% in 2006 and will cut costs and prices to make them more affordable. In the future, the cars you see from Toyota will be 100 percent hybrid. We believe that in 10 years the world will be filled with hybrids. Okamoto declined to provide a timeline. Toyota has stated that it plans to sell 1 million hybrids a year by 2010. Earlier, President Katsuaki Watanabe said he aims to halve the premium in price of hybrids over conventional vehicles as soon as possible.

32. Hybrid sales growth in Aust Fleet Hybrid numbers are currently tiny: 1094 Priuses is only approx 0.2% of car sales Hybrid numbers are growing rapidly: Prius sales 2003, 2004, 2005 292, 1094, 1423+500 orders Prius 2006 allocation to Aust is approx 2000 and demand will again out strip supply Soon mainstream vehicles such as the Camry will have Hybrids options too.

33. Registered passenger vehicles in Australia � Over 10.3 million in 2003, up from around 8.3 million in 1993. (GRW � 24% in 10 years) 522 cars for every 1,000 people in 2003, was 469 cars per 1,000 people in 1993.[1] (GRW � 11% faster than pop in 10 years) A shift towards four wheel drive cars, which made up 17% of new vehicle sales in 2002, up from 8% in 1992.

34. Aust Vehicle Fleet Turnover Total vehicle sales in 2005 � 988,269 Up by 3.5% on 2004 � 955,224 Passenger vehicle sales �05 � 608,804 Consists of small, light, medium, large, sports, prestige, luxury, people mover Sports Utility Vehicles �05 � 180,292 Light trucks �05 � 167,878 Heavy trucks �05 � 31,295 Source: VFACTS Industry Summary - December 2005, autoweb.com.au http://autoweb.drive.com.au/cms/A_105816/newsarticle.html 05/01/06

35. Vehicle fleet generation potential Total installed capacity of Aust Grid approx 50 GW 10.3 Million vehicles, at a modest 20kW = 200 GW power generation capability 600000 new sales = 12 GW generation But how to harness?

36. Vehicle make up of Aust Fleet Top Vehicle makes (2005): Toyota 202,817 20.5% Holden 174,464 17.7% Ford 129,140 13.1% Some individual vehicles (2004): Ford Falcon 65,384 Holden Commodore 79,170 Toyota Camry 40,356 Toyota Prius 1,094 0.18% of cars sold

37. Growth of Hybrids will be Exponential:

38. The previous slide is somewhat conservative: All numbers based on 2004 figures � so no inclusion of year to year growth All numbers are Toyota sales only � so no inclusion of hybrids from other manufacturers. Their trends will be similar, but lagging by two � three years. Vehicle energy storage and power capability are based on today�s numbers

39. A possible growth Scenario

40. After 10 years (2016): Approx 10.5 GW of instantaneous real or reactive power generation capability Approx 2000 MWh energy storage NB: large power, but small energy reserve Distributed across population centres at point of consumption This using a fairly conservative model (Toyota hybrids are only hybrids)

41. Probably don�t need this slide, but included for completeness Each passenger vehicle travelled an average 14,200 kms in the year to 31 October 2002, up from 13,400 kms in 1998.[4] (GRW � 6% in 4 years) Average passenger vehicle fuel consumption has remained around 11 to 12 litres per 100kms over the 1998 to 2002 period more cars x more km x same fuel consumption = much more fuel Measures of Australia's Progress � The measures � Transport, at www.abs.gov.au [1] Australian Bureau of Statistics 2003, Motor Vehicle Census, cat. no. 9309.0, ABS, Canberra [4] Australian Bureau of Statistics 1991-2000, Survey of Motor Vehicle Use, cat. no. 9208.0, ABS, Canberra