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Policy Evaluation . Goal is to determine whether a social intervention has produced the intended result. Results are not always well received. Probably the most difficult type of research to do well. 1. Specifying Goals Ambiguous goals – Vietnam/Iraq war
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Policy Evaluation Goal is to determine whether a social intervention has produced the intended result. Results are not always well received. Probably the most difficult type of research to do well
1. Specifying Goals Ambiguous goals – Vietnam/Iraq war Conflicting goals – UNLV - final 4/Acad. success 2. Identifying Unintended Consequences 3. Identifying Who Benefits/Who Suffers 4. Developing Methods and Measures of Evaluation Qualitative Quantitative
Evaluation Research Designs: Experimental designs Control/treatment group Quasi-experimental designs Time-series design Correlational design Qualitative evaluations Focus groups, interviews
Ethical Issues: Social interventions being evaluated may raise ethical issues. Identification of drug users, sex offenders Deciding who gets treatment and who doesn’t
Research may be a mask for unethical behavior. Police survey of prostitutes Alabama treatment of black men with syphilis Are Evaluations simply used to legitimize a social intervention? How are the evaluations used?
THE POLITICS OF POLICY EVALUATION 1. Who Evaluates? Elites: Government Agencies, Public Universities, Think Tanks Interest Groups: AAA, ACLU, AMA, Business groups, etc. Citizens: Complaints; Whistle Blower laws, Public Opinion; Voting; Recalls
2. Evaluation and Bureaucratic Oversight (at least) Two reasons for evaluation: Are the policy solutions working Are the policy solutions really being implemented 3. How is Evaluation done? Haphazardly: takes time and money Fire alarm v. policy patrol model of oversight
4. Why do governments usually fail at their own efforts at policy evaluation? 5. Why are government programs rarely terminated, even when evaluations show that the programs are ineffective? 6. Interpretations of Evaluations (i.e., is the EPA doing a good job?)
WHY EVALUATIONS MAY BE INGORED Too Complicated: Implications may not be presented in a way that nonresearchers can understand. Results can sometimes be counter-intuitive = Results sometimes contradict deeply held beliefs. Vested interest in a program. Who evaluates government policies? Answer: the government.
Welfare Reform: Is it a Success? What were the Goals/Objectives? How do we measures of success? Police Consolidation? Voucher system?
Welfare Reform: Is it a Success? • What were the Goals/Objectives? • Break the cycle of poverty • Save money/lower spending • How do we measure success? • Decrease in the number of people on welfare • Decrease in the number of people below the poverty line
School Choice: Is it a Success? • What does the data say? • Interpreting competing results • Mortality rate • Selection bias • Missing data • Outliers
Concluding remarks • Understand the process • Evaluate the process • Democratic or not democratic • More democracy/less democracy? • Less regulation, more regulation? • Recommend changes?