National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment

1. National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment Lt Col David Andrus, OFCM Dr Al Riebau, USDA Forest Service Mr Eli Jacks, NOAA National Weather Service ICMSSR Update, May 31, 2007

2. Overview • Background • Validated Needs • Mr. Eli Jacks, NOAA / NWS • Dr. Al Riebau, USDA / FS • Lt Col David Andrus, OFCM • Framework to Meet the Needs • Status of Assessment

3. Background • 2005 and 2006 were record years for acres burned • Acres burned have trended upwards more than 100% since mid-80s Source: National Climatic Data Center Climate of 2006 Wildfire Season Summary

4. Background • Wildland fire suppression, preparedness, fuels management, and other activities receive approximately $2.7B in federal funding annually

5. Background • Western Governors’ Association Request, June 2005 • “The Western Governors urge NOAA to: Complete a National Needs Assessment Report, by NOAA’s Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology, of federal, state and local fire managers needs for weather information in their wildfire and prescribed fire decision making processes and a framework to meet those needs by the NWS and Predictive Services.”

6. Background • ICMSSR Action Item, November 2005 • “OFCM should move forward to form a Joint Action Group (JAG) under the Committee for Environmental Services, Operations, and Research Needs (CESORN), to review the needs and requirements for wildland fire weather information, to include identifying organizational responsibilities and addressing the following issues: data collection, fire weather research, weather forecast services, data assimilation, air quality, information dissemination, education and outreach, and user response.” • By Spring, 2006, the Joint Action Group for the National Wildland Fire Weather Needs Assessment (JAG/NWFWNA) was formed

7. DHS FEMA U.S. Fire Administration DOC NOAA NIST DOD DOE DOI U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Park Service Bureau of Land Mgmt U.S. Geological Survey Bureau of Indian Affairs DOT FAA FHWA EPA HHS NASA USDA U.S. Forest Service Subject Matter Experts State Foresters Universities Background – JAG/NWFWNA Cochairs: Dr. Allen Riebau, USDA/FS Mr. Eli Jacks, DOC/NOAA/NWS Representatives from:

8. The JAG was charged with addressing the following functional areas: Data collection, integrity, processing, and archival Fire weather research and development Forecast Products and Services Modeling, prediction, and data assimilation Information dissemination and technologies Education, training, outreach, partnering, and collaboration User response, decision support, and resulting user impacts Funding and human resources (crosscutting) Socioeconomic factors Background - JAG/NWFWNA

9. BackgroundInput from Many Activities • Spring/Summer 2006: Mini-workshops held to frame overall needs and issues • Fall 2006: San Diego Fire Congress Special Session increased community feedback on the needs of fire weather (FW) users • Winter 2006: OFCM canvassed more than 1200 federal FW community users; WGA requested input from state, tribal, and local FW users • Spring 2007: Analyzed input from 745 federal, state, tribal, and local fire weather users to derive specific fire weather needs

10. BackgroundContributor Geographic Distribution National = 32 5 43 51 9 5 6 16 53 8 13 71 16 22 25 10 21 12 7 42 6 6 6 23 12 90 30 13 21 9 19 14 10 11 37 9 24 CT 5 DE 2 DC 0 MA 5 MD 5 NJ 8 RI 2 9 14 9 32 7 36 16 4

11. BackgroundAssessment Process • Users who frequently or occasionally perform the following duties: • Planner 354 • Weather provider 350 • Firefighter 348 • Fuels management 324 • Land manager 242 • Researcher 172 • Air quality manager 163 • Emergency worker (non-fire) 158

12. BackgroundAssessment Process • Users who frequently or occasionally perform the following functions: • Fire season operations 564 • Active fire operations 528 • Long-term planning 501 • Pre-season operations 498 • Post fire operations 453 • Post fire evaluation 427

13. BackgroundAssessment Process • Users who frequently or occasionally work at the following levels: • Federal 494 • Local 448 • State 429 • Private 217 • Academic 153 • Tribal 149 • NGO 58

14. BackgroundAssessment Process • 47 needs identified within 24 themes • 32 needs grouped under 9 themes • 15 needs stand-alone with their own theme • All functional areas covered • Needs information includes: • Urgency: Urgent or Non-urgent • Timeframe over which the need can reasonably be met: Short-term, Long-term, or Short/Long-term • Factors that will contribute to meeting the need: Coordination, Data, Management, Processes, Resources, Science, and Technology

15. Validated Needs • Functional Areas (FA) • FA 1: Data Collection, Integrity, Processing, and Archival • FA 3: Forecast Products and Services • FA 7: User Response, Decision Support, and Resulting User Impacts Mr. Eli Jacks NOAA National Weather Service

16. Validated Needs • Data Collection, Integrity, Processing, and Archival • Data management improvements to support a national observing system • 4D data cube • Validated obs in real-time • A sensor suite of fixed and deployable components • A prioritized list of data elements • Unification of weather station measurement standards for optimal national use • For example: NWS and Forest Service have different standards for measuring atmospheric conditions

17. Validated Needs • Forecast Products and Services • Product improvements at each level of government for various wildland fire-related duties (e.g., firefighter) • Tailored products and tools • Availability of product accuracy information • Detailed climate outlooks

18. Validated Needs • Forecast Products and Services • Improved training and reference materials to facilitate proper interpretation and use of products • Existing materials need to be made available • Existing materials need to be improved based on best practices • Training and reference material must accompany new products

19. Validated Needs • Forecast Products and Services • New and improved products: • NWS Fire Weather Forecast improvements • NWS Fire Weather Forecast verification data • Fire weather warnings disseminated more widely and with longer lead times • Improved smoke dispersion products • NFDRS forecasts for more locations • More fine-scale fuel moisture data and forecasts • Better representations of stability and upper-level atmospheric forecasts

20. Validated Needs • Forecast Products and Services • Standardized product requirements • Standard representations of weather and fuels information • For example, a synoptic surface chart includes isobars and surface plots in a standard format, easily understood by all meteorologists • Clear depictions of critical threshold / breakpoint conditions • Product accuracy requirements

21. Validated Needs • User Response, Decision Support, and Resulting User Impacts • Better feedback between development and user communities • Allows for more relevant decision-support tools • A decision-support tools repository • Contains reference and training documentation and allows for user feedback • More smoke mgmt decision-support tools

22. Validated Needs • Functional Areas • FA 2: Fire Weather Research and Development • FA 4: Modeling, Prediction, and Data Assimilation • FA 5: Information Dissemination and Technologies Dr. Al Riebau USDA Forest Service

23. Validated Needs • Fire Weather R&D • Better understanding of fire potential, fire combustion, wildland fire smoke, and climate change/variability • Simple access to information on R&D initiatives, efforts, and successes • Systematic integration of research into ops • Feedback mechanisms for users to meaningfully impact R&D efforts

24. Validated Needs • Modeling, Prediction, and Data Assimilation • Rapid transitioning of modeling advances into ops • Operational models to better characterize: • Complex terrain • Coupled fire-atmosphere interactions • Climate and climate-change impacts • Fire potential, threat, and impacts associated with climate change • Wide dissemination of model accuracy and confidence information • Model output in easy-to-use graphical and text formats (e.g., GIS format, PDA-supported formats)

25. Validated Needs • Info Dissemination and Technologies • A coordinated, “one-stop” fire weather Internet presence • Facilitates access to pertinent weather data and products in region of interest • Consistent dissemination of timely products and services to model users • More products in low bandwidth formats for dissemination via telephones and PDAs • A centralized means for collaboration on products and services • Examples: Chat rooms, Bulletin boards

26. Validated Needs • Info Dissemination and Technologies • Robust, real-time access to data • Continuity of operations planning for: • Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Data Collection System (DCS), which serves as an integral mechanism for data flow • Automated Sorting, Conversion, and Distribution System (ASCADS), which serves as a crucial node for data flow

27. Validated Needs • Functional Areas • FA 6: Education, Training, Outreach, Partnering, and Collaboration • FA 8: Funding and Human Resources (crosscutting) • FA 9: Socioeconomic Factors Lt Col David Andrus OFCM

28. Validated Needs • Education, Training, Outreach, Partnering, and Collaboration • Review training programs and establish best practices • Validate and improve training programs • Comprehensive training and certification • More state-of-the-art training options, to include distance-learning

29. Validated Needs • Funding and Human Resources (crosscutting) • Leverage existing and pursue new resources, as required, to: • Develop a real-time, 4D characterization of the atmosphere and Earth’s surface • Improve smoke forecasts to better relate fire weather with new EPA air quality requirements • Socioeconomic Factors • Tap into state-of-the-art socioeconomic outreach tools to better inform and educate the public on the importance of understanding, mitigating, and preparing for wildland fire

30. Framework to Meet the Needs • A complete framework to meet identified needs will be developed over the next few months • Framing Concepts: • Leverage existing programs and initiatives of responsible Federal agencies • Examples: WIST, JUTB, EOS/NEXRAD, NOAA SAB • Leverage existing and forthcoming technologies • Examples: GEOSS, MPAR, NexGen, UASs • Recommend new initiatives and improvements to be considered in Federal agencies’ ongoing program reviews and re-evaluations of products and services • Define both near- and intermediate-term priorities • Identify partnering opportunities (horizontal/vertical)

31. Status of Assessment • Assessment has three phases • Summary of user needs and issues • Drafted for release this summer • Includes: • Validated needs • Framing concepts to meet needs • Will be briefed to WGA in June • Detailed report of user needs and issues • Planned for release later this year

32. Status of Assessment • Assessment has three phases (cont’d) • A framework to meet the needs • Work to begin this summer • JAG will work with responsible agencies and interagency groups to: • Assess current capabilities to meet the needs • Assess any gaps in capability to meet the needs • Recommend program initiatives to fill capability gaps • Develop a detailed, implementation plan with agreed-upon partner roles in meeting needs

33. Status of Assessment • The JAG requests ICMSSR support to: • Complete a needs summary report • Complete a detailed needs report • Develop a framework for NWS and Predictive Services to meet identified needs • Successful completion will satisfy the WGA request and greatly benefit the wildland fire community

34. Questions?

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