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Enhancing Catastrophe Predictions: LERA Methodologies for Loss Estimation and Risk Assessment

This project focuses on reviewing and advancing the Loss Estimation and Risk Assessment (LERA) methodologies to predict and prevent natural and manmade catastrophes, including terrorist attacks. Aiming for a unified framework, it evaluates national and international regulatory frameworks, promotes comprehensive LERA methods, and fosters integration of existing approaches. The initiative involves collaboration among specialists from NATO countries and Russia to develop efficient strategies for improving safety standards and economic outcomes, while addressing the limitations of current methodologies.

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Enhancing Catastrophe Predictions: LERA Methodologies for Loss Estimation and Risk Assessment

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  1. SPA Analysis and Synthesis ofLoss Estimation & Risk Assessment(LERA)Methodologies for Prediction and Prevention of CatastrophesProject reference number: SfP-981416Environmental Security PanelMay 13th, 2005Conference Room BrosioNATO HeadquartersBruxelles

  2. Project / Purpose • Review LERA-relevant regulatory frameworks • National (eg, Russian Federal Law on Technological Safety, Russian Federal Law on Technological Regulation, US DMA 2000) • International (eg, Seveso Directive, Saveso-II Directive) • Review / advance LERA methods • Unified comprehensive LERA-methodology • Natural-manmade catastrophes • Terrorist attacks • LERA Demonstration Project in Russia • Toward an International LERA framework • Integration of national approaches • Consistent / common databases • Goal • economies (R&D, construction) • improved safety standards

  3. Related R&D in Russia Federal State Program ‘Safety of Population and Industrial Facilities Taking into Account Risks of Natural and Manmade Catastrophes’ (1992-2000) Federal Special-Purpose Program ‘Reduction of Risks and Mitigation of Consequences of Natural and Manmade Emergencies in the Russian Federation’ (2000-2005)

  4. Institutional Involvement • IMS / RAS • LERA ~ manmade / natural catastrophes • Methods for estimation of catastrophic losses (short-, middle-, and long-term future) • IIES • LERA ~ terrorist impacts • Systems for protecting high potential loss facilities • VT • Disaster Reduction • Building Security Enhancement (FEMA) • National Capital Region Infrastructure • Microzonation (Turkey) • Electric Power reliability • SPA • Risk analysis • Natural hazards • Terrorism • Insurance Industry • CDDMRI /EMERCOM • LERA ~ natural / manmade disasters • GIS technologies

  5. LERA LERA Current status

  6. LERA technology: Current status • LERA theory ~ developed • Variety models emerging (HAZUS, LessLoss, CATS, EXTREMUM, RADIUS) • National / inward focused • Limited, poor communication • Focus on Natural Hazards, neglect security • No cross-pollination / inefficient • Needs: • Open LERA methods / models • Accessible databases • Wider acceptance

  7. Partner Contributions • SPA- Experience in LERA / Application ~ regional planning; infrastructure mitigation programs; finance and insurance • VT -Assessing critical infrastructures / evaluating efficiencies of safety related activities • IIES -Assessing terrorist risk / systems for protection of high potential loss facilities from catastrophes and terrorist attacks • IMS / RAS – LERA for industrial accidents / estimation of catastrophic losses varying in time • CDDRMI– LERA for natural hazards / GIS

  8. Novelty of the project • Broad-based approach to loss estimationdeterministic, stochastic, fuzzy sets… • International / Global • Comprehensive – not just a single type of hazard (earthquake, flood, fire, terrorism, etc.) • Integrated - Multihazards / Security • Estimation of catastrophiclosses varying in time

  9. Products  • Workshop on current LERA-methodologies • Collection and comparativeassessment of LERA-methodologies developed in NATO countries and Russia • Synthesis of a comprehensive methodology • Development of basic principles of the methodology for catastrophic estimation of risks and losses varying in time • Demonstration project (Min. of Emergency Situations)

  10. Criteria for Success 1. Analysis existing LERA-methodologies 10% 2. Develop LERA specific hazards 15 % 3. Comprehensive LERA natural hazards / Security 35% 4. Method to estimate Cat losses ( short-, middle- and long-term) 20% 5. Dissemination to the international community 5% 15% 6. Implementation in the Ministry of Emergency Situations

  11. End-user·       Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations: • Natural / manmade catastrophes; • prediction and prevention; • consequence mitigation; • rescue and response Contribution to the Project • Staff, resources, databases, experience • Demonstration project / application: • mitigating the consequences of scenario catastrophe • anticipating emergency response • recovery and reconstruction

  12. Project strengths • Comprehensive systems-based approach • Contributes towards modern strategies of catastrophic safety management • Permits catastrophic loss estimation varying in time • Open issues: • Limited data • Uncertainty • Lack of internationally accepted regulations and standards on risk management

  13. Contribution to stability, security, peace • Contributes to modern strategies for ensuring safety • Pooling efforts of specialists from NATO countries and Russia in disaster and terrorist risk management • Key step towards a unified standardized methodology

  14. SPA Thank You / Merci / Danke Schön / Spasibo Questions?

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