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SPA. Analysis and Synthesis of Loss Estimation & Risk Assessment (LERA) Methodologies for Prediction and Prevention of Catastrophes Project reference number: SfP-981416 Environmental Security Panel May 13 th , 2005 Conference Room Brosio NATO Headquarters Bruxelles. Project / Purpose.

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  1. SPA Analysis and Synthesis ofLoss Estimation & Risk Assessment(LERA)Methodologies for Prediction and Prevention of CatastrophesProject reference number: SfP-981416Environmental Security PanelMay 13th, 2005Conference Room BrosioNATO HeadquartersBruxelles

  2. Project / Purpose • Review LERA-relevant regulatory frameworks • National (eg, Russian Federal Law on Technological Safety, Russian Federal Law on Technological Regulation, US DMA 2000) • International (eg, Seveso Directive, Saveso-II Directive) • Review / advance LERA methods • Unified comprehensive LERA-methodology • Natural-manmade catastrophes • Terrorist attacks • LERA Demonstration Project in Russia • Toward an International LERA framework • Integration of national approaches • Consistent / common databases • Goal • economies (R&D, construction) • improved safety standards

  3. Related R&D in Russia Federal State Program ‘Safety of Population and Industrial Facilities Taking into Account Risks of Natural and Manmade Catastrophes’ (1992-2000) Federal Special-Purpose Program ‘Reduction of Risks and Mitigation of Consequences of Natural and Manmade Emergencies in the Russian Federation’ (2000-2005)

  4. Institutional Involvement • IMS / RAS • LERA ~ manmade / natural catastrophes • Methods for estimation of catastrophic losses (short-, middle-, and long-term future) • IIES • LERA ~ terrorist impacts • Systems for protecting high potential loss facilities • VT • Disaster Reduction • Building Security Enhancement (FEMA) • National Capital Region Infrastructure • Microzonation (Turkey) • Electric Power reliability • SPA • Risk analysis • Natural hazards • Terrorism • Insurance Industry • CDDMRI /EMERCOM • LERA ~ natural / manmade disasters • GIS technologies

  5. LERA LERA Current status

  6. LERA technology: Current status • LERA theory ~ developed • Variety models emerging (HAZUS, LessLoss, CATS, EXTREMUM, RADIUS) • National / inward focused • Limited, poor communication • Focus on Natural Hazards, neglect security • No cross-pollination / inefficient • Needs: • Open LERA methods / models • Accessible databases • Wider acceptance

  7. Partner Contributions • SPA- Experience in LERA / Application ~ regional planning; infrastructure mitigation programs; finance and insurance • VT -Assessing critical infrastructures / evaluating efficiencies of safety related activities • IIES -Assessing terrorist risk / systems for protection of high potential loss facilities from catastrophes and terrorist attacks • IMS / RAS – LERA for industrial accidents / estimation of catastrophic losses varying in time • CDDRMI– LERA for natural hazards / GIS

  8. Novelty of the project • Broad-based approach to loss estimationdeterministic, stochastic, fuzzy sets… • International / Global • Comprehensive – not just a single type of hazard (earthquake, flood, fire, terrorism, etc.) • Integrated - Multihazards / Security • Estimation of catastrophiclosses varying in time

  9. Products  • Workshop on current LERA-methodologies • Collection and comparativeassessment of LERA-methodologies developed in NATO countries and Russia • Synthesis of a comprehensive methodology • Development of basic principles of the methodology for catastrophic estimation of risks and losses varying in time • Demonstration project (Min. of Emergency Situations)

  10. Criteria for Success 1. Analysis existing LERA-methodologies 10% 2. Develop LERA specific hazards 15 % 3. Comprehensive LERA natural hazards / Security 35% 4. Method to estimate Cat losses ( short-, middle- and long-term) 20% 5. Dissemination to the international community 5% 15% 6. Implementation in the Ministry of Emergency Situations

  11. End-user·       Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations: • Natural / manmade catastrophes; • prediction and prevention; • consequence mitigation; • rescue and response Contribution to the Project • Staff, resources, databases, experience • Demonstration project / application: • mitigating the consequences of scenario catastrophe • anticipating emergency response • recovery and reconstruction

  12. Project strengths • Comprehensive systems-based approach • Contributes towards modern strategies of catastrophic safety management • Permits catastrophic loss estimation varying in time • Open issues: • Limited data • Uncertainty • Lack of internationally accepted regulations and standards on risk management

  13. Contribution to stability, security, peace • Contributes to modern strategies for ensuring safety • Pooling efforts of specialists from NATO countries and Russia in disaster and terrorist risk management • Key step towards a unified standardized methodology

  14. SPA Thank You / Merci / Danke Schön / Spasibo Questions?

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