Overview on impact studies and relevant ongoing projects on impact and adaptation within the KLIMAzwei programme in Germany. COST 734 MC Meeting Poznan 20.-22.5.2007 K. C. Kersebaum Leibniz-Centre of Agricultural Landscape Research Müncheberg
Federal states of Germany and study areas for climate change impact Brandenburg Hessen Baden-Württemberg
INKLIM 2012 study for Hessen http://www.hlug.de/medien/luft/inklim/berichte_II_folgen.htm • Region: Hessen • Topics: • Analysis climate history • Regional climate change scenarios • Impact on ground and surface water • Agriculture • Forestry • Crop phenology (season shift) • Viticulture • Orchards • Nature Conservation • Health protection • Soil conservation • Yield maize, wheat, barley, rape, • sugar beet, pasture (DAYCENT) • Wine phenology, risks and suitability • for varieties (Huglin Index) • Phenology of apple, cherries, others • Risks (drought, hail, frost, etc.)
K.C.Kersebaum INKLIM: The crop model concept of DAYCENT dtemperature dprecipitation Retention properties of soil Required temperature sum until ripening Effect of water stress on ripening (-> harvest index) Alcamo et al. 2005
INKLIM: Relative yield changes 2041-2050 compared to reference (1980-2000) IPCC-SRES B2 pasture barley maize rape wheat sugar beet Alcamo et al. 2005
INKLIM: Shift of phenological seasons in Hessen – observed and simulated Total Hessen Hessen – district 348 only Late autumn and winter winter 1961-1990 (observed) 2041-2050 (simulated) autumn Early and full autumn spring spring summer summer Streitfert et al. 2005
KLARA (Climate Change – Impact – Risk – Adaptation) • Region: Baden-Württemberg • Topics: • Vulnerability • Climatic indicators and extremes • Health • Agriculture • Forestry • Tourism • Nature Conservation • Waterway transportation • Hazards • Yield maize and wheat (SWIM) • Apple scrap risk • Codling moth (Cydia pomonella) • Wine growing periods (Huglin Index)
past period (1951-2000) future period (2001-2055) KLARA: Average monthly sums of daily infection risk for apple scrab Mean and standard deviation of 4 stations at lake Constanz for 1951-2000 and 2001-2055 Stock et al. 2005
Brandenburg study: Expected changes of temperature and precipitation Period 2046-2055 compared to reference period 1951-2000; scenario A1B Change of temperature Change of precipitation Gerstengabe et al. 2003
Brandenburg study: Relative changes of yields for maize and wheat Period 2040-2050 compared to reference period 1980-1990; scenario A1B Wheat maize Relative changes wheat (reference = 100) Relative changes maize (reference = 100) No data No data Gerstengabe et al. 2003
Summary of all studies on crop yield: Yields for wheat will change by: -17% for Brandenburg (- 7% with estimated CO2 effect) -10% for Hessen -14% for Baden-Württemberg Yields for maize will change by +2% for Brandenburg (+8% with estimated CO2 effect) -5% for Hessen No significant change on average for Baden Württemberg Disadvantages: Crop models are relatively general CO2 effect is mostly not considered CO2 effect on water consumtion is generally not considered
klimazwei Research for Climate Protection and Protection from Climate Impacts a programme of the Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) With the research programme “klimazwei”, BMBF is bringing implementation-oriented projects to the forefront of its funding policies. A total of 39 projects are being funded to develop innovative technologies and strategies that strengthen our ability to act and secure our competitiveness under conditions of climate change. At the core of all these projects are innovative ideas on how to mitigate risks resulting from climate change and to seize opportunities for society and the economy.
Klimazwei –programme structure • Projects A: Mitigation • Technics for Emission Reduction • Logistics • Environmental Technologies • Projects B: Adaptation • Regional Networks and Strategies • Tourism • Early Warning Systems/Automation • Natural resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry) • Communication/Mainstreaming • Projects C: Accompanying projects supporting the programme klimazwei
KLARA-Net (www.klara-net.de) is focusing on the establishment of a regional stakeholder network that works out fields of action and particular measures for climate change adaptation. Additionally, KLARA-Net is undertaking actions to raise public awareness in matters of climate change. In the current phase of the project four working groups (1. Agriculture, Forestry and Winegrowing; 2. Building Economy, Water Economy and Planning; 3. Health; 4. Tourism) are discussing and creating adaptation measures for the region Starkenburg/Hesse.Project “A Region’s Climate Protection and Adaptation Potentials and their Development – the case study “Chiemgau-Inn-Salzach” aims to mobilise and focus the innovative development forces of a region with regard to climate protection and adaptation. 3 phases: 1) conception and building of a regional strategy as well as a regional network for climate change and adaptation. 2) Identification and testing of path-breaking model projects. 3) Transfer of regional experiences gained in the model projects other regions. 3 fields of action: a) Use of renewable regional energy re-sources, b) water retention and land use as well as c) mobilisation of the consumers/population. Agricultural related projects on Natural resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry)
Agricultural related projects on Natural resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry) Project “Climate Change Adaptation of Wheat Production in Germany through Plant Breeding”: The objective is to find cost-effective ways of adaptation to climate change in the area of plant breeding research. To determine the pressure of adaptation locally restricted climatic scenarios with a very high spatial resolution will be used to force a dynamic vegetation model. In this manner the effect to the crop of wheat will be assessed and effects will be described by appropriate stress indicators. In a second step, the potential of plant breeding to develop wheat varieties adapted to climate change will be assessed. The focus is to develop wheat varieties adapted to the abiotic stress complex heat/drought. Project KliO (www.agrar.hu-berlin.de/agrarmet/forschung/fp/KliO_html; Climate Change and Fruit Growing in Germany): The objective of this project is to investigate the possible regional impacts of climate change on fruit-growing in Germany. The KliO project intends to develop application relevant strategies for adaptation and evaluate the impact of these adaptation measures on the sectors profitability and productivity.
Agricultural related projects on Natural resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry) Project BatroS “Soil Amelioration and Cultivation Technologies for Arable Land Exposed to Drought:” (www.batros.de): Lusatia is supposed to be most affected by increasing risk of droughts during the growing season. The regionally prevailing nutrient poor sandy substrates reinforce the impacts of drought and require to adapt the traditional agricultural management practices to the changing climatic conditions. New amelioration and cultivation technologies to adapt the existing management systems to water stress or alternative landuse strategies orienting on the selection of drought tolerant species and mere biomass production. BAtroS has been launched for testing soil amelioration technologies which may increase the water storage capacity of soils and, hence, the access of plants to soil water. The project will apply an alternative approach for testing the adaptation of selected seeds and crops to drought, considering traditional crops but also those plant species known to be suitable for maximising phytomass productivity.
Agricultural related projects on Natural resources (water-, agriculture- and forestry) LandCaRe2020“Land, Climate and Resources – Foresight and Potentials in Rural Areas under Regional Climate Change” (funding period 11/2006-10/2009) deals with effects of regional climate change and weather extremes on agriculture and water and material fluxes at the landscape level. Tools will be provided for decision making in agriculture, related industries and environmental issues in rural areas. Central objective of the project is the development of a dynamic decision support system (LandCaRe-DSS). The DSS is dynamic because it allows new model runs with various sets of scenarios and parameters by the user. 2 regions in eastern Germany (1) the “Uckermark” in the dry lowlands of Brandenburg and (2) the “Weißeritzkreis” in the humid mountain area of Saxony are used as model areas. The DSS includes modules for past and future climate (scenarios and weather statistics), ecology (quantitative indicators for greenhouse gas emission, natural plant production potentials, biodiversity), and economy (land-use change, development of farm income and employment, eco-nomic risks). Integration of the modules is based on a geographic information system (GIS). Based on FACE experiments, model appoaches and parameters will be developed to describe effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on plant production and water use.
Projects C: Accompanying projects supporting the programme klimazwei „Service Group Adaptation (SGA)“(email@example.com) supports interdisciplinary activities with application oriented focus on adaptation to regional Climate Change. It has been established to provide a common database and methodological background to the project partners. SGA provides both, simulated regional model data and climatological observations. To address this task SGA consists of two parts: • One has been implemented as a project of the national climate research service group ‘Model and Data’ at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg and provides model data and products. • The second mission is carried out in close cooperation with the German Meteorological Service (DWD) in Offenbach and is concerned with long-term observation data.