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dr. brian p. flannery exxon mobil corporation

Climate change presents a long-term, uncertain, serious global riskExxonMobil is taking action to reduce operational emissions and to promote technological innovation by end-usersWe conduct and support peer-reviewed research to advance climate science (for over 20 years: CMU, The Hadley Centre, Lamont Doherty, MIT, Stanford, over 30 papers published in the peer-reviewed literature, participation in IPCC)Successful development and deployment of innovative, commercially viable technology is th21

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dr. brian p. flannery exxon mobil corporation

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    1. Dr. Brian P. Flannery Exxon Mobil Corporation

    3. There remain substantial uncertainties in critical climate processes, e.g. aerosols, clouds, surface hydrology, sea ice, moist convection, ..., that limit our ability to predict future climate change and to attribute currently observed changes to human causes There remain gaps in the availability of observations of climate variables, and climate processes... especially over long time periods necessary to distinguish human influences from natural variability Once changes occur, complex feedbacks affect outcomes in climate models in ways that cannot yet be reliably forecast

    4. Many complex changes alter earths energy balance GHG increases are the simplest, but they do not operate alone Aerosols / cloud effects are critical yet poorly understood

    5. Simulated Climate Variability: Chaos Many climate factors display chaotic behavior El Nio, storms, precipitation, clouds Significant implications for objective measures Prediction Detection

    6. Natural Climate Variability: Tree Rings

    7. Elements of a More Structured Approach

    8. Addressing Known Areas of Uncertainty

    9. Areas that Likely Should be Addressed

    10. Enhanced Technical and Management Capacity The US has lost its lead in climate modelling relevant to policy assessments... but not in climate science. (Example, as a management objective The Hadley Centre works to see that its results become the basis for international assessments) Need for better tools (computational and observational hardware) and management for science-based, objective policy analysis, policy advice: Climate modeling Data acquisition Development of predictions/ projections/ assessments Significant challenge to maintain scientific objectivity Are regional climate predictions ready for prime time How should uncertainty be characterized Can model results be Validated not just Calibrated

    11. Improved Assessments of Climate Change

    12. An Enhanced US Climate Science Program

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