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1. Potential Impacts of anAdvanced Energy Portfolio Standard in Pennsylvania Ryan Pletka, P.E.
Black & Veatch
November 9, 2004
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3. - 3 Study Objective Identify most cost effective mix of resources built in response to AEPS
Identify economic benefits or costs
4. - 4 Current Status of Renewable and Advanced Energy In Pennsylvania Current installations:
730 MW Hydro
430 MW Biomass (Including municipal solid waste)
130 MW Wind
1,922 MW Waste Coal
Policy
System Benefit Funds have stimulated renewables
Current RPS Policy Ineffective
State Received a D from UCS
Over 200 Companies in the Renewable Energy Industry
American Hydro
Ebara Solar
Sea Solar Power
GE and Gamesa
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6. - 6
7. - 7 AEPS Eligible Resources Tier I
Wind
Low-impact hydro
Biogas and coal mine methane
Biomass
Solar photovoltaics
Energy conservation demand side, ie, consumers
Energy efficiency supply side, ie, power plants
Solar thermal
Ocean and lake energy
Solid waste (non combustion)
Fuel cells fueled by Tier I resources Tier II Resources
Waste Coal
New facilities
Air pollution controls at existing facilities
Integrated gasification combined cycle
Fuel cells fueled by non-Tier I resources
Greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions
8. - 8
9. - 9 Biomass Cofiring Assessment Pennsylvania has good biomass resources and lots of coal plants
Focused on cofiring at 38 existing coal units
Capital cost: $100-$700/kW
Biomass resources
Only sustainable and clean resources identified
Assessment based on ORNL database
Biomass collected from 75 mile radius around plants
10. - 10 Biomass Resources and Coal Plants
11. - 11 Biogas (Landfill and Digester Gas) Assessment Reasonably good potential from biogas resources
Internal combustion engines are proven technology
Landfill gas based on EPA LMOP database
Capital cost: $1,300-$2,350/kW
Digester gas examined dairy and swine farms
Capital cost: $2,500-$3,750/kW
12. - 12 Hydro Assessment Relatively Modest Hydro Opportunities
Analysis Based on INEEL Assessment
New Sites
Upgrades at Existing Plants
Generation Additions to Dams Without Power
42 Projects Identified, 5 at Undeveloped Sites
13. - 13 Energy Conservation / Efficiency Assessment Good opportunity for energy conservation/efficiency in PA
Analysis Based on B&V, ACEEE assessments
Residential measures
Commercial & Industrial measures
Over 16,000 GWh of potential identified over 20 years
About 10% of PA consumption
Wide range of costs and payback potential
Consumers wont necessarily implement measures even if economical
14. - 14
15. - 15 Properly Characterizing Resource Cost One of the largest modeling differences between renewables and fossil fuels is that costs vary tremendously based on renewable resource quality
There are a limited number of very good renewable / advanced project sites
Costs rise as low-hanging projects are developed
Supply curves capture these effects
16. - 16 Simple Supply Curve Example
17. - 17 Biogas Supply Curve 2006Premium over Avoided Costs
18. - 18
19. - 19 Aggregate Tier II Supply Curve 2010
20. - 20 Tier I Cost Premium Supply Curves
21. - 21 Tier II Cost Premium Supply Curves
22. - 22 Optimum Mix of Resources to Meet the AEPS Requirements
23. - 23 Tier I Least Cost Mix Wind, biomass cofiring, and energy conservation comprise about 80 percent of mix
Some solar (4 MW) assumed to be built, even though not economical
24. - 24 Tier II Least Cost Mix Waste coal combustion is projected to make up all of Tier II
25. - 25 Projected Build-out Schedule (6,470 MW) This Portfolio Used to Calculate Economic Impacts
26. - 26
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28. - 28 Pennsylvania Employment Impacts, Job-years per MW
29. - 29
30. - 30 Conclusions and Acknowledgements Acknowledgements
Community Foundation for the Alleghenies Mike Kane
Heinz Endowments
PA DEP
REPP
Industry