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Unemployment

Unemployment. Survey of 60,000 households Conducted monthly All household members age 16 + Margin of error is less than .1%. Household Survey. Employed if that week you worked 1 hour for pay 15 hours for no pay in a family business Unemployed Did not work during survey week

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Unemployment

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  1. Unemployment • Survey of 60,000 households • Conducted monthly • All household members age 16 + • Margin of error is less than .1%

  2. Household Survey • Employed • if that week you worked • 1 hour for pay • 15 hours for no pay in a family business • Unemployed • Did not work during survey week • Actively looked for work in previous four weeks • Not in Labor Force • Did not work during survey week • Did not look for work in previous four weeks

  3. Employed persons consist of: • All persons who did any work for pay or profit during the survey reference week. • All persons who did at least 15 hours of unpaid work in a family-owned enterprise operated by someone in their household. • All persons who were temporarily absent from their regular jobs, whether they were paid or not. • Not all of the wide range of job situations in the American economy fit neatly into a given category. For example, people are considered employed if they did any work at all for pay or profit during the survey reference week. This includes all part-time and temporary work, as well as regular full-time, year-round employment. Persons also are counted as employed if they have a job at which they did not work during the survey week because they were: • On vacation • Ill • Experiencing child-care problems • Taking care of some other family or personal obligation • On maternity or paternity leave • Involved in an industrial dispute • Prevented from working by bad weather

  4. Persons are classified as unemployed if they do not have a job, have actively looked for work in the prior 4 weeks, and are currently available for work. • Workers expecting to be recalled from layoff are counted as unemployed, whether or not they have engaged in a specific jobseeking activity. In all other cases, the individual must have been engaged in at least one active job search activity in the 4 weeks preceding the interview and be available for work (except for temporary illness).

  5. Total U.S. Population LaborForce Under 16 Retired Institutionalized Military Employed Not in labor force Students Housespouses Discouraged workers Unemployed

  6. Total U.S. Population 312.5 million Oct 2011 9.0% LaborForce Under 16 Retired Institutionalized Military Employed 72.2 million 140.3 million Not in labor force Students Housespouses Discouraged workers Unemployed 13.9 million 86.1million

  7. Total U.S. Population 310 million October 2010 9.6% LaborForce Under 16 Retired Institutionalized Military Employed 71.5 million 139 million Not in labor force Students Housespouses Discouraged workers Unemployed 14.8 million 84.6million

  8. Total U.S. Population 308 million October 2009 10.1% LaborForce Under 16 Retired Institutionalized Military Employed 71.6 million 138.2 million Not in labor force Students Housespouses Discouraged workers Unemployed 15.7 million 82.5 million Last time it was 10.1% April 1983

  9. Labor Force = Employed + Unemployed • Eligible Population = Labor Force + NILF • Ineligible Population • Under 16 • Retired • Institutionalized • Military (active)

  10. Unemployment Rate • % of labor force that is unemployed (Unemployed / Labor Force) x 100 • Participation Rate • % of eligible population that is in labor force (Labor Force / Eligible Population) x 100

  11. October 2011 Unemployment RatesandLabor Force Participation Rates

  12. October 2010 Unemployment RatesandLabor Force Participation Rates

  13. October 2009 Unemployment RatesandLabor Force Participation Rates

  14. March 2007 Unemployment RatesandLabor Force Participation Rates

  15. Black Teen Unemployment • Usually 5 to 6x national average • October 2011 • Unemployed 236,000 Unemp. Rate 37.8% • Employed 388,000 • Labor Force 624,000 Part Rate 24.2% • Population 2,578,000 • Not in Labor Force @ 1,954,000 75.8% • Why? Little or no skills Inner City No jobs available Discouraged Workers

  16. Go to School!October 2011

  17. Go to School!March 2007

  18. Types of Unemployment • Frictional – normal unemployment • People entering labor force • People switching jobs • Unemployment rate can/has never been 0% • Lowest since WWII was 2.4% (9/52, 8/53) • Currently economists estimate 4.0% to 5.0% is normal unemployment • “Full Employment”

  19. Types of Unemployment • Cyclical Unemployment • Rate changes as country goes through the business cycle. • Increases as economy goes through contraction • Decreases as economy goes through expansion • One of first indicators of direction of business cycle (monthly survey, reported quickly, usually not subject to major revisions) • Counter-cyclical • Lagging indicator –tells where economy was

  20. Unemployment rate 1948 - 2005 Cyclical highs Nov & Dec 82 10.8% May 75 9.0% Oct 49 7.9% June 92 7.8% July 58 7.5% May 61 7.1% June 03 6.3% Aug 54 6.0% Aug 71 6.1% 5.6% May 79 5.0% Mar 89 4.8% Feb 60 4.6% Oct 73 3.8% Apr 00 3.7% Mar 57 3.4% Jan 48 3.4% Sept 68-May 69 Cyclical Lows 2.5% May 53

  21. Types of Unemployment Seasonal varies with season ex) lifeguard, highway construction Geographical Jobs are more mobile than people. Regional differences in industry regional unemploymentmap Structural or Skill-mismatch Changing nature of the economy Industrial to service economy

  22. Unemployment last 10 years Unemployment Rate Since Jan 2001 Oct 2009 10.1% 10.1% Oct 2009 June 2003 6.3% 6.3% June 2003 Full Employment May 2007 4.4% Feb 2001 4.2% 4.4% May 2007 4.2% Jan 2001

  23. Wisconsin

  24. Marginally Attached Workers • Have looked for work in last year • Have not looked for work in last month • Would take a job if offered • March 2009 2,106,000 • October 2009 2,373,000 • Jan 2010 2,539,000 • March 2010 2,255,000 • October 2010 2,602,000 • March 2011 2,434,000 • October 2011 2,555,000

  25. Discouraged Workers • Are not looking for work • Believe there is no work available to them • Would work if offered a job • March 2009 685,000 • October 2009 808,000 • January 2010 1,065,000 • March 2010 994,000 • October 2010 1,219,000 • March 2011 921,000 • October 2011 976,000

  26. Alternate Unemployment Rates 10/11 10/09 3/07 • National Average (U-3) 9.0% 10.1% 4.4% • Add • Discouraged Workers (U-4) 9.6% 10.6% 4.6% • Add • Marginally Attached (U-5) 10.5% 11.5% 5.3% • Add • Part-Time for Economic Reasons (U-6) 16.2% 17.4% 8.0% PBS VIDEO

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