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1 University of Zagreb, Croatia 2 National Institute of Biology, Slovenia

Habitat suitability and potential expansion of the White Stork ( Ciconia ciconia ) breeding population in Slovenia Andreja Radović 1 and Damjan Denac 2. 1 University of Zagreb, Croatia 2 National Institute of Biology, Slovenia. White stork in Slovenia.

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1 University of Zagreb, Croatia 2 National Institute of Biology, Slovenia

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  1. Habitat suitability and potential expansion of the White Stork (Ciconiaciconia) breeding population in SloveniaAndreja Radović1 and Damjan Denac2 1University of Zagreb, Croatia 2National Institute of Biology, Slovenia

  2. White stork in Slovenia • National censuses 1965, 1979, 1984, since 1999 annually • 1999–2010, population was concentrated in the NE and SE parts • in average 209 ± 15 pairs (range 193-240) • 1999−2010 period expansion • NW direction (the Savska ravan region) • SW direction (the Notranjsko podolje and Pivško podolje regions) • between Central and SE Slovenia (Dolenjsko podolje)

  3. White stork densities in Slovenia - 2010 • Estimate the kernel density using a point pattern analysis

  4. Expectation? • Detect most suitable but unoccupied locations across Slovenia for breeding of White Storks • ...

  5. Environmental predictors • digital elevation model - dem • percentage of the forest cover - forest (CLC 311, 312, 313) • percentage of the open habitat open_h (CLC 231,211) • precipitation zones - precip • distance to the nearest settlement -set_d (CLC 112, 111) • percentage of the settlement in the square - set_m • mean slope - slope • topographic wetness index - twi • distance to the nearest permanent running water - water_d

  6. Results of ENFA algorithm • significance of the niche detected tested with randomisation test 9999 time (p<1e-04)

  7. More informative... reclassification • Define 4 levels of “suitability”

  8. Extend... • Data too god just for presence-only modelling • Upgrade with regression modelling • Incorporating additional climatic variables • Wide area – Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina • Model testing with data partitioning • Data quality • Croatia – several monitoring programs • Bosnia and Herzegovina – recently established scheme

  9. Problems facing • Analysing large data sets in R • Different approach • - Run analysis on remote high memory server

  10. Extendfurther... Detecting: • difference in species life traits according to suitability of the habitat in the breeding area • difference in habitat usage and behaviour • changes in land cover/land usage in core breeding area • influence of intenssification of management in agricultural production • ...

  11. White stork as a tool ... • http://zg.biol.pmf.hr/~aradovic/

  12. Thank you!

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