1 / 26

Chapter 8 Growth and Development with International Trade

Chapter 8 Growth and Development with International Trade. Key terms. 1. Balanced growth ( 平衡增长 ) 2. Engine of growth ( 经济增长的发动机 ) 3. Regions of recent settlement ( 最新居住区 ) 4. Vent for surplus ( 剩余出口理论 ) 5. Endogenous growth theory ( 内生增长理论 )

normanwalter
Télécharger la présentation

Chapter 8 Growth and Development with International Trade

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Chapter 8 Growth and Development with International Trade 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  2. Key terms 1. Balanced growth (平衡增长) 2. Engine of growth (经济增长的发动机) 3. Regions of recent settlement (最新居住区) 4. Vent for surplus (剩余出口理论) 5. Endogenous growth theory (内生增长理论) 6. High-performance Asian economies (HPAEs,高成长型的亚洲经济) 7. Commodity, or net barter, terms of trade (纯易货贸易条件) 8. Income terms of trade (收入贸易条件) 9. Immiserizing growth (悲惨增长) 10. Export instability (出口不稳定性) 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  3. Continued: Key terms 11. Marketing boards (销售局) 12. International commodity agreements (国际商品协定) 13. Buffer stocks (缓冲库存) 14. Export controls (出口管制) 15. Purchase contracts (购货合同) 16. Import-substitution industrialization (ISI，进口替代的工业化) 17. Foreign debt (外债) 18. Newly industrialized economies (NIEs,新兴工业化经济) 19. Export pessimism (出口失望) 20. New International Economic Order (NIEO，国际经济新秩序) 21. United Nations Conferences on Trade and Development (UNCTAD, 联合国贸易和发展会议) 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  4. 8.2 Growth and development over time Through time, a nation's population usually grows and with it grows the size of its labor force. Similarly, by utilizing part of its resources to produce capital equipment, the nation increases its stock of capital. Capital refers to all the man-made means of production, such as machinery, factories, office buildings, communications, as well as the education and training of the labor force. • Although there are many different types of labor and capital, we will, as in previous chapters, assume for simplicity that all units of labor and capital are homogeneous (identical). 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  5. 105 70 60 45 30 0 60 120 180 130 190 Figure 8.1 Growth of labor and capital over time Y Y 0 100 75 A 70 B’ 60 A B 30 B X 0 60 120 140 170 X 130 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  6. 1. Labor growth and capital accumulation over time • An increase in the endowment of labor and capital over time causes the nation's PPF to shift outward. The type and degree of the shift depends on the rate at which L and K grow. • If L and K grow at the same rate, the nation's PPF will shift out evenly in all directions at the rate of factor growth. As a result, the two PPFs (before and after growth) have identical shape and the same slope, or PX/PY, along any ray from the origin. This is termed as the case of balanced growth. As is shown in the right panel 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  7. If only the endowment of L grows, the output of both commodities grows. However, the output of commodity X grows faster than the output of commodity Y (solid line). • The opposite is true if only the endowment of K grows (dashed line). 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  8. 8.3 Trade theory and economic development 1. According traditional trade theory, specialization may maximize nations’ welfare in the short run, but not so in the long run. Then why not so in the long run? Summary: traditional trade theory involves adjustment to existing conditions, while development necessarily requires changing existing conditions. 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  9. Continued:8.3 Trade theory and economic development 2. Traditional trade theory can readily be extended to incorporate changes in factor supplies and technology over time. 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  10. 8.4 The contributions of trade to development 1. Trade can lead to the full utilization of otherwise underemployed domestic resources. 2. By expanding the size of the market, trade makes possible division of labor and economies of scale. 3. International trade is the vehicle for the transmission of new ideas, new technology, and new managerial and other skills. 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  11. Continued: 8.4 The contributions of trade to development 4. Trade also stimulates and facilitates the international flow of capital from developed to developing nations. 5. In several large developing nations, the importation of new manufactured products has stimulated domestic demand until efficient domestic production of these goods became feasible. 6. International trade is an excellent antimonopoly weapon because it stimulates greater efficiency by domestic producers in order for them to meet foreign competition. 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  12. Continued: 8.4 The contributions of trade to development Endogenous growth theory: Concept of the theory 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  13. 8.5 The terms of trade and economic development Definition: The terms of trade is the ratio of the price of a country’s exports to the price of its imports. • Types of terms of trade • 1.Commodity, or net barter, terms of trade • If PXis the price index of exports and PMis the price index of imports, the commodity terms of trade (N) = (PX ÷ PM) x 100. 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  14. Continued:8.5 The terms of trade and economic development Types of terms of trade 2. Income terms of trade If PXis the price index of exports, PMis the price index of imports, and QXis the nations volume of exports, the income terms of trade I = (PX ÷ PM)×QX. 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  15. 8.6 Immiserizing growth 1.The concept of immiserizing growth If growth in a nation leads to more exports but its commodity terms of trade deteriorate very much, the nation’s welfare may decline. This situation was called immiserizing growth. 2. The illustration of the immiserizing growth See figure 8.2 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  16. E 100 ● E﹡ 90 ● 70 60 ● A B﹡ 40 ● B 30 ● PB﹡=1/2 PB=1 0 X 170 30 40 60 90 120 130 Figure 8.2 Immiserizing growth 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  17. 8.8 Import substitution versus export orientation 1. Background for import substitution and export orientation Most developing nations made a deliberate attempt to industrialize rather than continuing to specialize in the production of primary commodities for export. Industrialization was relied upon to provide 6 goods results (P.209~210). Having decided to industrialize, developing nations had to choose between industrialization through import substitution or export orientation. 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  18. Continued:8.8 Import substitution versus export orientation 2. Definition of the import substitution: Through establishing and developing their own manufacturing and other industries, developing countries substitute exported goods with their own products, thus the economical growth can be spurred on, industrialization can be realized. Three main advantages and disadvantages of the import-substitution industrialization (P. 210). 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  19. Continued:8.8 Import substitution versus export orientation 3. Definition of the export orientation: Developing countries use their cheap labor to produce primary products being abundant in their countries in order to make foreign exchange. With foreign exchange developing countries can import manufactured goods. Through export primary products, developing countries can fully utilize their natural resources, expand employment, increase average incomes, change economical structure and promote development of economy. Advantages and disadvantages of the export orientation (P 210). 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  20. The Rybczynski Theorem • The Rybczynski theorem postulates that at constant commodity price, an increase in the endowment of one factor will increase by a greater proportion the output of the commodity intensive in that factor , and will reduce the output of the other commodity. • Refer to Figure 7.2 on page 203. With trade but before factor growth,Nation 1 produces at point B at PX/PY=PB=1. After only Ldoubles and with PX/PY remaining unchanged, Nation 1 produces at point M on its shifted-out production frontier. Thus, the output of X which is L-intensive more than doubles and the output of Y declines, as postulated by the Rybczynski theorem. 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  21. Technical Progress • Several empirical studies have indicated that most of the increase in real income per capita in industrial nations is due to technical progress and much less to capital accumulation and capital deepening. The analysis of technical progress is much more complicated than the analysis of factor growth simply because there are several definitions and types of technical progress.and they can take place at different rates in the production of either or both commodities. • The most appropriate and commonly used definitions of technical progress are those advanced by John Hicks,the British economist. • Throughout our discussion, we assume that constant returns to scale prevails before and after technical progress takes place and that technical progress occurs in a once-and-for-all fashion. 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  22. According to John Hicks , technical progress is classified into three different types: Neutral-technical progress increases the productivity of L and K in the same proportion,so that K/L remains the same after the technical progress as it was before at unchanged relative factor price (w/r) .There is no substitution of L for K , or vice versa. Labor-saving technical progress increases the productivity of K proportionately more than the productivity of L.As a result,K is substituted for L,and K/L rises at constant w/r. Capital-saving technical progress increases the productivity of L proportionately more than the productivity of K. As a result,L is substituted for K,and K/L falls at constant w/ 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  23. Economic Growth and Terms of Trade:The Large-Country Case • Does a nation necessarily become better off when it produces more? Does economic growth enhance a nation’s welfare? 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  24. Consider Saudi Arabia, heavily committed to oil as an export product. Suppose, for some reason (technological improvement or a new oil strike), the productivity in Saudi Arabia’s oil production increases, resulting in an excess supply of oil at the prevailing international terms of trade. If Saudi Arabia is sufficiently large to be able to affect the world price and if the foreign demand for oil is relatively price-inelastic, the world price of oil will fall substantially. Export-biased growth thus worsens Saudi Arabia’s terms of trade. 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  25. Export-biased growthhastwo opposing effectsfor Saudi Arabia’s welfare.Saudi Arabia gains because it can produce more.This is referred to as wealth effect(positive,the change in the output per worker as a result of growth), but it loses because it receives a lower price for its export oil. This is referred to as terms-of-trade effect (negative). 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

  26. The effect of growth on Saudi Arabia’s welfare depends on the relative strength of wealth effect against that of terms-of-trade effect. ① If the benefits of rising output more than outweigh the losses due to the deterioration of terms-of-trade, it is better off. ②Even if wealth effect, by itself, tends to increase the nation’s welfare, the terms-of-trade may deteriorate so much as to lead to a net decline in its welfare.This case is known among economists as immiserizing growth 赵有广 安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院

More Related