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SPE DISTINGUISHED LECTURER SERIES is funded principally through a grant of the SPE FOUNDATION

SPE DISTINGUISHED LECTURER SERIES is funded principally through a grant of the SPE FOUNDATION The Society gratefully acknowledges those companies that support the program by allowing their professionals to participate as Lecturers.

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SPE DISTINGUISHED LECTURER SERIES is funded principally through a grant of the SPE FOUNDATION

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  1. SPE DISTINGUISHED LECTURER SERIES is funded principally through a grant of the SPE FOUNDATION The Society gratefully acknowledges those companies that support the program by allowing their professionals to participate as Lecturers. And special thanks to The American Institute of Mining, Metallurgical, and Petroleum Engineers (AIME) for their contribution to the program.

  2. The Medium (2020) and Long-Term (2050)of Oil, Natural Gas and Other Energies By Pierre-René BAUQUIS Associated Professor IFP-School Professor TPA 2003-2004 SPE Distinguished Lecturers Program

  3. Growth rate % / year 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 WORLD POPULATION GROWTH RATE

  4. HISTORY OF PRIMARY ENERGIES (1850  2000)

  5. Carbon intensity tC/toe Wood = 1.25 Coal = 1.08 Oil = 0.84 Natural gas = 0.64 Source: ENERGIE from Nakicenovic & al. '96 HISTORICAL CHANGES IN WORLD ENERGIES CARBON INTENSITY

  6. PESSIMISTS HAVE HISTORICALLY BEEN WRONG 1919 “... The peak of U.S. production will soon be past - possibly within three years” 1936 “…it is unsafe to rest in the assurance that plenty of petroleum will be found in the future merely because it has been in the past.” 1981 “If petroleum is not there to begin with, all of the human ingenuity that can be mustered into the service of exploration cannot put it there…” 1990 “… non-OPEC production in the longer term will at best remain stagnant and is more likely to fall gradually due to resource constraints.” 1998 “Global production of conventional oil will begin to decline sooner than most people think probably within 10 years” Source : Daniel BUTLER, U.S. EIA/DOE AEO 2001 conference

  7. What people "can see": published information, i.e. proven reserves, which is an economical concept, which therefore changes with changes in technology and oil prices - These are the visible part of the iceberg • What 99% of people "cannot see", i.e. the non visible part of the iceberg, i.e. the already discovered resources in place on one hand the ultimate reserves on the other hand Discovered resources Ultimate reserves are not published, but could be estimated at 3,000 Gbbl i.e. three times the proven reserves of 1,000 Gbbl today (estimated 2000/3000 Gbbl) are two to three times the proven reserves of around 1,000 Gbbl RESERVES and RESSOURCES

  8. 1973 2000 GTOE Years of consumption GTOE Years of consumption Oil world reserves Gas world reserves 86 52 30 48 140 140 40 65 Observing the "visible part of the iceberg" leads to conclude that we have plentiful and fast growing oil and gas reserves and that there is no problem PROVEN RESERVES : AN OPTIMISTIC PICTURE

  9. Ultimate world oil conventional reserves 1973 2000 Gbarrels 2000 - 3000 2000 - 3000 Beetween 1973 and 2000 there is practically no increase in ultimate conventional oil reserves estimates ULTIMATE RESERVES : A PESSIMISTIC VIEW

  10. * Cumulative production + proven reserves + possible reserves yet to be discovered Gb Pratt (1942) Duce (1946) Pouge (1946) Weeks (1948) Leverson (1949) Weeks (1949) MacNaughton (1953) Hubbert (1956) Weeks (1958) Weeks (1959) Hendricks (1965) Ryamn (1967) Shell (1968) Weeks (1968) Hubbert (1969) Moody (1970) Weeks (1971) Warman (1972) Bauquis (1972) Schweinfurth (1973) Linden (1973) Bonillas (1974) Howitt (1974) Moody (1975) WEC (1977) Nelson (1977) De Bruyne (1978) Klemme (1978) Nehring (1978) Nehring (1979) Halbouty (1979) Meyerhoff (1979) Roorda (1979) Halbouty (1979) WEC (1980) Strickland (1981) Coliti (1981) Nehring (1982) Masters (1983) Kalinin (1983) Martin (1984) Ivanhoe (1984) Masters (1987) Campbell (1991) Masters (1991) Townes (1993) Petroconsult. (1993) Masters (1994) USGS (2000) 1940 1949 1950 1959 1960 1969 1970 1979 1980 1989 1990 2000 Source: IFP/DSEP adapted from Martin (1985) and Campbell (1992) - Updated 2000 HISTORICAL VIEWS ON ULTIMATE RESERVES

  11. THE IRREVERSIBLE DECLINE OF OIL PRODUCTIONS IN THE USA Gbbl/year Discoveries(*) Productions years (*) Discoveries are registered as per their initially declared sizes and their timing is « forwarded » by 33 years Source : King Hubbert 1956 - Updated by Jean Laherrere

  12. Already produced : Proven conventional : Remaining to be discovered : Future "reserve growth" : 800 1000 725 610 3135 million of barrels Source: USGS - WPC - Calgary - June 2000 AN USGS VIEW ON WORLD ULTIMATE RESERVES

  13. CAN WE RECONCILE LONG-TERM VIEWS • Increase in proven reserves from 1973 to 2000 largely due to old discoveries reevaluations and not essentially to new discoveries • Reevaluations due both to increases in expected recovery rates, and to underestimation of accumulation volumes at early evaluation stages • A secondary factor has been the acceleration of the delineation - development process • Last but not least the emergence of non conventional reserves as part of new proven reserves (permanent blurring of frontiers beetween the two categories) Source : P.R. BAUQUIS. Fort Lauderdale 28 NOV 2000

  14. In billion of barrels Estimated volume in place 1995 estimated reserves 2030 estimated reserves Orinoco Athabasca 1,200 1,700 100 100 300 300 Extra heavy crude - bitumens will represent the major portion of new "reserves" (See World Energy Congress Houston September 1998 - Paper by P.R. Bauquis) THE ROLE OF ULTRA-HEAVY OIL IN FUTURE RESERVES GROWTH

  15. Main uncertainties which could affect oil reserves evolutions beetween now and 2020 - 2030 • The climate change factor and the resulting CO2 emissions limitation legislation (i.e. Kyoto Protocol and subsequent legislation at world and individual countries levels) • The irrationality - Political factors and their possible effects on energy policies = oil and gas exploration (see greenpeace campaign to stop all exploration), and even more important enhanced recovery methods possible environmental limitations Global Foundation - November 26/28,20000PRB9_01.ppt - Pierre René BAUQUIS

  16. Power installed MW Electricity generated TWh Source: Revue de l'Energie, 50 ans, n° 509 Sept. 99 1995 2050 1995 2050 Hydropower Wind power Biomass (for electricity production) Geothermal Solar (photovoltaïc) Solar (thermal) 700.000 5.000 10.000 7.000 600 - 1.000.000 200.000 100.000 20.000 30.000 - 2.400 10 50 30 1 10 3.000 500 500 100 100 50 Total 722.600 1.350.000 2.501 4.250 * Energy equivalence used for electricity: nuclear power and renewables have been accounted as if they had been generated by conventional thermal power plants having an efficiency of 40% (as conventionally done by TotalFina) WHAT CONTRIBUTION FROM RENEWABLE ENERGIES ?

  17. Electricity generated in TWh in Gtep * ei in pourcentage of electricity generated ei in pourcentage of overall energy consumptions 1995 2050 1995 2050 1995 2050 1995 2050 Electricity consumptions (all origins) Hydropower ** Other renewables 13 000 2 400 100 42 000 3 000 1 250 2.8 0.5 0.02 9.0 0.6 0.3 100% 18.0% 0.8% 100% 7.0% 3.0% 34.0% 6.5% 0.3% 50.0% 3.5% 1.5% Total renewables 2 500 4 250 0.52 0.9 18.8% 10.0% 6.8% 5.0% * Energy equivalence used for electricity: nuclear power and renewables have been accounted as if they had been generated by conventional thermal power plants having an efficiency of 40% (as conventionally done by TotalFina) ** From which over 95% of large hydropower plants (i.e. plants larger than 10 MW) IN WORLD ENERGY TERMS, RENEWABLES SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL

  18. 2000 2020 2050 Source: Revue de l'Energie, 50 ans, n° 509 Sept. 99 Gtep % Gtep % Gtep % Renewables From which used for electricity generation Nuclear Oil Natural gas Coal (including lignite) 0.6 0.7 (0.5) 3.7 2.1 2.2 6.5 40 22 24 7.5 1 (0.7) 1 5.0 4.0 3.0 6.5 40 27 20 6.5 1.5 (0.9) 4 3.5 4.5 4.5 8 20 25 25 22 Total commercial energies Total fossil fuels 8.0 9.3 100.0 86 12.0 14.0 87 100.0 18.0 12.5 70 100.0 AUTHOR SYNTHETIC ENERGY FUTURE VIEW

  19. APPENDIX

  20. THE ENREGY MIX UP TO 2050

  21. CO2 ppm Assumption 1 Assumption 2 Mauna Loa data Assumption 1: use of 1 GtC generates an increase of 0.277 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere Assumption 2: use of 1 GtC generates an increase of 0.228 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere THE RELATED GREEN-HOUSE GASES ISSUE

  22. ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT,HYDROCARBONS AND NUCLEAR:COMPLEMENTARY ENERGIES  Making optimum use of each energy source • Liquid hydrocarbon resources are limited, so they should be used efficiently - i.e. where their high energy density and chemical richness are fully exploited: • as transport fuels (land, sea and air) • as raw materials (petrochemicals, chemicals, solvents, etc) • Heat production, including for power generation, is a less efficient use of liquid hydrocarbons (except “bottom of the barrel” cuts and for off-grid consumers or cases where the grid is deficient) • gaseous hydrocarbons are a more efficient option in certain cases in both the short and medium terms. However, after 2050 gas resource problems become very likely • in other cases, nuclear power is (already) the best solution in countries with high safety standards. By 2020-2050, nuclear power should be very widespread (need for small “fail-safe” reactors)

  23. ENERGY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT,HYDROCARBONS AND NUCLEAR:COMPLEMENTARY ENERGIES  Energy complementarities: 2050 and beyond • Production of hydrocarbons that are difficult to extract from the reservoirs holding them requires considerable amounts of energy (e.g. steam injected into the reservoir, thermal treatment on the surface in the case of mined production). One way to minimize CO2 production is to use nuclear-generated calories. • further improvement in recovery rates from conventional deposits, and a fortiori in the case of heavy or extra-heavy crudes (Athabasca, Orinoco) using nuclear-generated heat • possibility of economic production of oil shales or gas hydrates? • possibility of improving gas-to-liquid (GTL) or “coal liquefaction” processes using nuclear-generated hydrogen: eco-friendly Fischer Tropsch • The nuclear industry could produce hydrogen for massive demand in refining and petrochemicals processes

  24. HYDROGEN AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT:SOME PARADOXES -  Hydrogen and economic fundamentals • Hydrogen is and will remain expensive to produce: • currently and until about 2030-2050, hydrogen will be produced using fossil energies, and will cost some 2 to 5 times (per energy unit) the cost of the fossil fuels used to produce it • in future, i.e. 2030 onwards, nuclear hydrogen will gradually take over (produced either by electrolysis or by direct thermal water decomposition) • Hydrogen is and will remain expensive to transport and store • pipeline transport of hydrogen costs and will continue to cost 10 times more (per energy unit) than liquid hydrocarbons (« technical progress » cannot change the basic laws of thermodynamics) • the cost of storing hydrogen (pressurized, cryogenic, adsorbed or chemically combined) may come down, but it will remain much more expensive than storing liquid hydrocarbons (a 100 times factor … even in 2050)

  25. HYDROGEN AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT:SOME PARADOXES -  Hydrogen and its uses • As heat energy (industrial boilers, steam, electricity, space heating, air-conditioning, etc.) • hydrogen is a less efficient vector than electricity. Both electricity and natural gas involve equivalent logistics costs, whether for huge quantities or for final networks, while hydrogen is and will remain 2 to 3 times more expensive than natural gas to transport and distribute (basic physics) • As transport fuel (road transport, aviation, maritime shipping) • the advantage of using hydrogen is its absence of urban pollution (whether used in internal combustion engines, turbines or fuel cells). But the high cost of logistics and on-board storage (cars, aircraft, ships) means that hydrogen is handicapped by its low volumic energy content • The most efficient way to use hydrogen as a transport fuel would probably be to “carbonize” it, thus producing synthetic hydrocarbons

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