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P/C Insurance Industry Overview and Outlook: Focus on the Construction Sector

P/C Insurance Industry Overview and Outlook: Focus on the Construction Sector

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P/C Insurance Industry Overview and Outlook: Focus on the Construction Sector

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  1. P/C Insurance Industry Overview and Outlook:Focus on the Construction Sector Insurance Information Institute June 11, 2014 Robert P. Hartwig, Ph.D., CPCU, President & Economist Insurance Information Institute  110 William Street  New York, NY 10038 Tel: 212.346.5520  Cell: 917.453.1885  bobh@iii.org  www.iii.org

  2. The Strength of the U.S. Economy Will Influence P/C Insurer Growth Opportunities U.S. Growth Will Expand Insurer Exposure Base Across Most Lines 2

  3. US Real GDP Growth* The Q4:2008 decline was the steepest since the Q1:1982 drop of 6.8% Real GDP Growth (%) Recession began in Dec. 2007. Economic toll of credit crunch, housing slump, labor market contraction was severe 2014/15 are expected to see a modest acceleration in growth Demand for Insurance Should Increase in 2014/15 as GDP Growth Accelerates Modestly and Gradually Benefits the Economy Broadly * Estimates/Forecasts from Blue Chip Economic Indicators. Source: US Department of Commerce, Blue Economic Indicators 6/14; Insurance Information Institute.

  4. Real GDP by State Percent Change, 2012:Highest 25 States North Dakota was the economic growth juggernaut of the US in 2012—by far Only 10 states experienced growth in excess of 3%, which is what we would see nationally in a more typical recovery Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

  5. Real GDP by State Percent Change, 2012: Lowest 25 States Growth rates in 8 states (and DC) were still below 1% in 2012 Connecticut was the only state to shrink in 2012 Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

  6. State-by-State Leading Indicatorsthrough 2014:Q3 The economic outlook for most of the US is generally positive, though negative for 9 states Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia at http://www.philadelphiafed.org/index.cfm ;Insurance Information Institute.

  7. Consumer Sentiment Survey (1966 = 100) January 2010 through May 2014 Optimism among consumers improved in the first part of 2014 Impact of 2011 budget impasse Consumer confidence has been low for years amid high unemployment, falling home prices and other factors adversely impact consumers, but improved substantially over the past 2+ years, though uncertainty in Washington sometimes takes a toll. Source: University of Michigan; Insurance Information Institute

  8. Net Worth of Households*Recently Hit A Historic High 2008-09 recession: -15.7% $ Trillions Housing “bubble” 2001 recession 1992 recession 1982 recession Rising net worth fuels a “wealth affect” that helps fuel consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of spending in the U.S. economy *Includes nonprofit organizations. Data are not seasonally adjusted or inflation-adjusted.Source: Federal Reserve Board: http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/current/z1r-5.pdf ; Insurance Information Institute.

  9. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index January 1985 through April 2014 Small business optimism in April exceeded for the first time its level when the crisis began in Dec. 2007. Source: National Federation of Independent Business at http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Sentiment.html?NFIB-optimism-index.gif ; Insurance Information Institute.

  10. Business Bankruptcy Filings,1980-2013 % Change Surrounding Recessions 1980-82 58.6% 1980-87 88.7% 1990-91 10.3% 2000-01 13.0% 2006-09 208.9% 2013 bankruptcies totaled 33,212, down 17.1% from 2012—the fourth consecutive year of decline. Business bankruptcies more than tripled during the financial crisis. Significant Exposure Implications for All Commercial Lines as Business Bankruptcies Begin to Decline Sources: American Bankruptcy Institute (1980-2012) at http://www.abiworld.org/AM/AMTemplate.cfm?Section=Home&TEMPLATE=/CM/ContentDisplay.cfm&CONTENTID=61633; 2013 data from United States Courts at http://news.uscourts.gov; Insurance Information Institute. 13 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  11. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Values > 50 Indicate Expansion) January 2010 through May 2014 Optimism among non-manufacturers has been increasing despite uncertainty in Washington Non-manufacturing industries have been expanding and adding jobs. This trend is likely to continue through 2014. Source: Institute for Supply Management at http://www.ism.ws/ismreport/nonmfgrob.cfm; Insurance Information Institute.

  12. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index January 1985 through April 2014 Small business optimism in April exceeded for the first time its level when the crisis began in Dec. 2007. Source: National Federation of Independent Business at http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/charts/indicators/Sentiment.html?NFIB-optimism-index.gif ; Insurance Information Institute.

  13. 12 Industries for the Next 10 Years: Insurance Solutions Needed Health Care Health Sciences Energy (Traditional) Many industries are poised for growth, though insurers’ ability to capitalize on these industries varies widely Alternative Energy Petrochemical Agriculture Natural Resources Technology (incl. Biotechnology) Light Manufacturing Insourced Manufacturing Export-Oriented Industries Shipping (Rail, Marine, Trucking, Pipelines)

  14. Monthly Change in Private Employment 1,053,000 jobs created so far in 2014 January 2007 through May 2014 (Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted) 216,000 private sector jobs were created in May. In March 2014, the last of the private jobs lost in the Great Recession were recovered Jobs Created 2013: 2.368 Mill 2012: 2.294 Mill 2011: 2.400 Mill 2010: 1.277 Mill Monthly losses in Dec. 08–Mar. 09 were the largest in the post-WW II period Private Employers Added 9.39 million Jobs Since Jan. 2010 After Having Shed 5.01 Million Jobs in 2009 and 3.76 Million in 2008 (State and Local Governments Have Shed Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm; Insurance Information Institute

  15. CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY OVERVIEW & OUTLOOK The Construction Sector Is Critical to the Economy and the P/C Insurance Industry 18

  16. Value of New Private Construction: Residential & Nonresidential, 2003-2014* 2014: Value of new pvt. construction hits $686.5B as of Apr. 2014, up 37% from the 2010 trough but still 25% below 2006 peak New Construction peaks at $911.8. in 2006 Billions of Dollars Trough in 2010 at $500.6B, after plunging 55.1% ($411.2B) $15.0 $613.7 $308.0 $298.1 $261.8 $378.5 $238.8 Private Construction Activity Is Moving in a Positive Direction though Remains Well Below Pre-Crisis Peak; Residential Dominates *2014 figure is a seasonally adjusted annual rate as of April. Sources: US Department of Commerce; Insurance Information Institute. 19 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  17. Value of Construction Put in Place, April 2014 vs. April 2013* Growth (%) Private: +11.7% Public: +1.2% Public sector construction activity remains depressed but better than a year ago (-5.2%) Private sector construction activity is up in the residential and nonresidential segments Overall Construction Activity is Up, But Growth Is Almost Entirely in the Private Sector as State/Local Government Budget Woes Continue *seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.

  18. Value of Private Construction Put in Place, by Segment, April 2014 vs. April 2013* Led by the Residential Construction, Lodging and Communication segments, Private sector construction activity is rising after plunging during the “Great Recession.” Growth (%) Private Construction Activity is Up in Many Segments, Including the Key Residential Construction Sector; Bodes Well for the Remainder of 2014 *seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.

  19. Value of Public Construction Put in Place, by Segment, Apr. 2014 vs. Apr. 2013* Transportation, Power and Conservation projects lead public sector construction Growth (%) Public sector construction activity is down substantially in many segments, a situation that will likely persist, dragging on public entity risk exposures Public Construction Activity is Down in Many Segments as State and Local Budgets Remain Under Stress; Improvement Possible in 2015. *seasonally adjustedSource: U.S. Census Bureau, http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/c30index.html ; Insurance Information Institute.

  20. Real (Inflation-Adjusted) Nonresidential Construction, 2000-2014* (Bar = CAGR; Line = Y/Y Growth Rate) Construction activity has generally been positive since late 2010 but has occasionally be erratic. Forecast is for slowing improving growth *Through Q1 2014. Source: US Dept. of Commerce; Wells Fargo Securities (June 6, 2014 research report). 23 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  21. Commercial & Industrial Loans Outstandingat FDIC-Insured Banks, Quarterly, 2006-2014:Q1 $Trillions Commercial lending activity exceeds pre-crisis levels (+36.75% or $430B above mid-2010 trough) Commercial lending plunged by 21.2% ($330B) during the financial crisis and ensuing period of tight credit Outstanding Commercial Loan Volume Has Been Growing for Over Two Years and Is Now Nearly Back to Early Recession Levels. Bodes Very Well for the Creation of Current and Future Commercial Insurance Exposures Source: FDIC at http://www2.fdic.gov/qbp/ (Loan Performance spreadsheet); Insurance Information Institute. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  22. Percent of Non-current Commercial & Industrial Loans Outstanding at FDIC-Insured Banks,Quarterly, 2006-2014:Q1 Recession Back to “normal” levels of noncurrent industrial & commercial loans Non-current loans (those past due 90 days or more or in nonaccrual status) are below even pre-recession levels, fueling bank willingness to lend. Source: FDIC at http://www2.fdic.gov/qbp/ (Loan Performance spreadsheet); Insurance Information Institute. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  23. Value of New Federal, State and Local Government Construction: 2003-2014* Austerity Reigns Govt. construction is still shrinking, down $47.9B or 15.2% since 2009 peak Construction across all levels of government peaked at $314.9B in 2009 ($ Billions) Government Construction Spending Peaked in 2009, Helped by Stimulus Spending, but Continues to Contract As State/Local Governments Grapple with Deficits and Federal Sequestration Takes Hold *2014 figure is a seasonally adjusted annual rate as of April; http://www.census.gov/construction/c30/historical_data.html Sources: US Department of Commerce; Insurance Information Institute. eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  24. New Private Housing Starts, 1990-2019F Job growth, low inventories of existing homes, low mortgage rates and demographics should continue to stimulate new home construction for several more years (Millions of Units) New home starts plunged 72% from 2005-2009; A net annual decline of 1.49 million units, lowest since records began in 1959 Insurers Are Continue to See Meaningful Exposure Growth in the Wake of the “Great Recession” Associated with Home Construction: Construction Risk Exposure, Surety, Commercial Auto; Potent Driver of Workers Comp Exposure Source: U.S. Department of Commerce; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (5/14 and 3/13); Insurance Information Institute.

  25. Florida Total Private Housing Starts,2000 – 2017F (Thousands of Units) CRASH, CRATER, RECOVERY Homebuilding in FL continues to recover, adding substantially to coastal exposures. The economic outlook for most of the US is positive for the first time in many years Source: University of Central Florida Institute for Economic Competitiveness: http://iec.ucf.edu/post/2014/01/07/Florida-Metro-Forecast-December-2013.aspx

  26. Construction Employment,Jan. 2010—May 2014* (Thousands) Construction employment is +569,000 aboveJan. 2011 (+10.5%) trough Construction and manufacturing employment constitute 1/3 of all payroll exposure. *Seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute. 30 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  27. Construction Employment, Jan. 2003–May 2014 (Thousands) Construction employment as of May 2014 totaled 6.0 million, an increase of 569,000 jobs or 10.5% from the Jan. 2011 trough Construction employment peaked at 7.726 million in April 2006 Gap between pre-recession construction peak and today: 1.7 million jobs The “Great Recession” and housing bust destroyed 2.3 million constructions jobs Construction employment troughed at 5.435 million in Jan. 2011, after a loss of 2.291 million jobs, a 29.7% plunge from the April 2006 peak The Construction Sector Could Be a Growth Leader in 2014 as the Housing Market, Private Investment and Govt. Spending Recover. WC Insurers Will Benefit. Note: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute. 31 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  28. Logging Employment,Jan. 2010—May 2014* (Thousands) Logging employment has been somewhat volatile but is up more than 10% from its 2010/2011 lows. Home construction activity in the US and some foreign demand should help this sector *Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute. 32 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  29. Logging Employment, Jan. 2003–May 2014 (Thousands) Logging employment peaked at about 71,000 in early 2003 Logging employment as of May 2014 totaled 53,900, an increase of 6,500 jobs or 12.9% from the Oct. 2011 trough Logging employment troughed at 47,400 in Oct. 2011 The “Great Recession” and housing bust destroyed at least 15,000 logging jobs The Logging Sector Is Benefitting from Residential Home Construction, Renewable Energy Regulations in Europe (encourage wood burning) and some Asian pulp demand Note: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute. 33 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  30. Construction Jobs: Largest Gains & Losses by Metro Area, Apr. 2014 vs. Apr. 2013* Change Largest Losses Largest Increases Construction employment expanded in 220 out of the 339 metro areas in the US in April 2014 Construction Employment Is Expanding—Albeit Modestly—in Much of the US *Seasonally adjusted; Source: Associated General Contractors: http://www.agc.org/galleries/news/Metro_Empl_1404_Rank.pdf; Ins. Information Institute.

  31. Interest Rate on Convention 30-Year Mortgages: Up a Bit, 1990–2014* Mortgages rates plunged to near-record lows in early 2013 but rose as the Fed initiated tapering in its QE program Yields on 30-Year mortgages have been below 6% for a six years Rising mortgage interest rates have impacted home sales but are unlikely to derail the recovery on housing *Monthly, through May 2014. Note: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm. National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes. 35 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  32. 30-Year Mortgages in 2014 Are Falling! What Will Be the Impact on Construction? 30-year mortgage rates are down nearly 40 basis points since early January Mortgage Interest Rates Were Expected to Continue to Rise as the Fed Pursued Tapering and the Economy Recovered; Rates Are Still Low by Historical Standards *Weekly through June 5, 2014. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm.; Insurance Information Institutes. 36 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  33. MANUFACTURING SECTOR OVERVIEW & OUTLOOK The U.S. Is Experiencing a Mini Manufacturing Renaissance That Is Benefitting the US Economy and the P/C Insurance Industry 37

  34. Manufacturing Employment,Jan. 2010—May 2014* (Thousands) Since Jan 2010, manufacturing employment is up (+639,000 or +5.6%)and still growing. Manufacturing employment is a surprising source of strength in the economy. Employment in the sector is at a multi-year high. *Seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute. 38 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  35. Dollar Value* of Manufacturers’ Shipments Monthly, Jan. 1992—Apr. 2014 $ Millions The value of Manufacturing Shipments in Apr. 2014 was $497.6B—a new record high. Monthly shipments in Apr. 2014 exceeded the pre-crisis (July 2008) peak. Manufacturing is energy-intensive and growth leads to gains in many commercial exposures: WC, Commercial Auto, Marine, Property, and various Liability Coverages. * Seasonally adjusted; Data published June 3, 2014.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Full Report on Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders, http://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/ 39 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  36. Business Investment: Expected to Accelerate, Fueling Commercial Exposure Growth Accelerating business investment will be a potent driver of commercial property and liability insurance exposures and should drive employment and WC payroll exposures as well (with a lag) Source: IHS Global Insights as of Jan. 13, 2014; Insurance Information Institute.

  37. ENERGY SECTOR: OIL & GAS INDUSTRY FUTURE IS BRIGHT US Is Becoming an Energy Powerhouse; Domestic Demand and Exports Are Key Need Infrastructure Investment 44

  38. U.S. Natural Gas Production, 2000-2013 Trillions of Cubic Ft. per Year The U.S. is already the world’s largest natural gas producer—recently overtaking Russia. This is a potent driver of commercial insurance exposures Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 8, 2014) , Insurance Information Institute.

  39. U.S. Crude Oil Production, 2005-2015P Millions of Barrels per Day Crude oil production in the U.S. is expected to increase by 82.6% from 2008 through 2015—and could overtake Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest oil producer Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 8, 2014) , Insurance Information Institute.

  40. Oil & Gas Extraction Employment,Jan. 2010—May 2014* Highest since Aug. 1986 Oil and gas extraction employment is up 34.6% since Jan. 2010 as the energy sector booms. Domestic energy production is essential to any robust economic recovery in the US. (Thousands) *Seasonally adjusted Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics at http://data.bls.gov; Insurance Information Institute. 48 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  41. World Primary Energy Consumption, 1990-2040P Quadrillion BTUs Growth in worldwide energy consumption will create more risk and vulnerabilities (natural and manmade); Innovations in risk management and insurance are needed. Between 2010 and 2040, energy consumption in projected to increase by 56.4% worldwide Source: Energy Information Administration, 2013 International Energy Outlook, Insurance Information Institute.

  42. US Electric Power Generation by Fuel Source, 2010-2035F (Billions of Kilowatt Hours) 4,427 4,279 4,118 3,937 3,806 3,796 Demand for Electricity Is Expected to Grow at a 0.6% Annual Rate Through 2035. Renewables and Natural Gas Will Account for an Increasing Share of Fuel Source Source: US Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2012, Appendix A7. 51 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  43. U.S. Private Power Construction,2000-2014* (% Change, 3-Month Moving Avg.) Power construction accounts for a large share of all construction activity. The recent slowdown was in part due to the expiration of renewable production tax credits. Going forward, about 75% of new capacity will be for gas fired plants *Through April 2014. Source: US Dept. of Commerce; Energy Information Administration, Wells Fargo Securities (June 6, 2014 research report). 54 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  44. Labor Market Trends Massive Job Losses Sapped the Economy and Commercial/Personal Lines Exposure, But Trend is Improving 55

  45. Unemployment and Underemployment Rates: Still Too High, But Falling January 2000 through May 2014, Seasonally Adjusted (%) U-6 went from 8.0% in March 2007 to 17.5% in October 2009; Stood at 12.2% in May 2014.8% to 10% is “normal.” “Headline” unemployment was 6.3% in May2014.4% to 6% is “normal.” Stubbornly high unemployment and underemployment constrain overall economic growth, but the job market is now clearly improving. Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute. 56 12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

  46. US Unemployment Rate Forecast 2007:Q1 to 2015:Q4F* Rising unemployment eroded payrolls and WC’s exposure base. Unemployment peaked at 10% in late 2009. Jobless figures have been revised slightly downwards for 2014/15 Unemployment forecasts have been revised slightly downwards. Optimistic scenarios put the unemployment as low as 5.9% by Q4 of thisyear. * = actual; = forecasts Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Blue Chip Economic Indicators (6/14 edition); Insurance Information Institute.

  47. Unemployment Rates by State, April 2014:Highest 25 States* In April, 43 states had over-the-month unemployment rate decreases, 2 states had increases, and 5 states and the District of Columbia had no change. *Provisional figures for April 2014, seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

  48. Unemployment Rates by State, April 2014: Lowest 25 States* In April, 43 states had over-the-month unemployment rate decreases, 2 states had increases, and 5 states and the District of Columbia had no change. *Provisional figures for April 2014, seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

  49. Monthly Change in Private Employment 1,053,000 jobs created so far in 2014 January 2007 through May 2014 (Thousands, Seasonally Adjusted) 216,000 private sector jobs were created in May. In March 2014, the last of the private jobs lost in the Great Recession were recovered Jobs Created 2013: 2.368 Mill 2012: 2.294 Mill 2011: 2.400 Mill 2010: 1.277 Mill Monthly losses in Dec. 08–Mar. 09 were the largest in the post-WW II period Private Employers Added 9.39 million Jobs Since Jan. 2010 After Having Shed 5.01 Million Jobs in 2009 and 3.76 Million in 2008 (State and Local Governments Have Shed Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm; Insurance Information Institute

  50. Cumulative Change in Private Employment: Dec. 2007—May 2014 Pvt. employment hit 116.6 million in April 2014—617,000 above its pre-crisis peak of 116.0 million December 2007 through May 2014 (Millions) Cumulative job losses peaked at 8.765 million in February 2010 It took more than 6 ½ years (79 months) to recover all of the private sector jobs lost in the Great Recession Private Employers Added 9.39 million Jobs Since Jan. 2010 After Having Shed 4.98 Million Jobs in 2009 and 3.80 Million in 2008 (State and Local Governments Have Shed Hundreds of Thousands of Jobs) Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm; Insurance Information Institute