B.Enkhmandakh, Ph.D Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs

1. B.Enkhmandakh, Ph.D Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs

2. The 21st Century climate challenge “One generation plants a tree; the next generation gets the shade.” Proverb

3. The world has less than a decade to avoid dangerous climate change that could bring unprecedented human development reversals • Climate change is a threat to humanity as a whole. But it is the poor, a constituency with no responsibility for the ecological debt we are running up, who face the most immediate and most severe human costs • The Human Development Report 2007/2008 calls for a ‘twin track’ approach that combines stringent mitigation to limit 21st Century warming to less than 2 degree centigrade, with strengthened international cooperation on adaptation • The forthcoming conference of the parties in Bali is a unique opportunity to put the interests of the world’s poor and future generations at the heart of climate change negotiations

4. The 21st Century climate challenge Three distinctive characteristics: • It is cumulative • The effects are irreversible • Large time lags – today’s emissions are tomorrow’s problems • It is global

5. Rising CO2 emissions are pushing up stocks & increasing temperatures • In the past 100 years the earth has warmed 0.70C • Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 are increasing at 1.9 ppm each year. It reached 379 ppm in 2005 • Between 2000 and 2005 an average of 26 Gt of CO2 was releases into the atmosphere each year

6. The 21st Century carbonbudget is set at 1,456 Gt CO2 to avoid dangerous climate change

7. Charting a course away dangerous climate change The sustainable emissions pathway is as follows • The world – cuts of 50 percent by 2050 with a peak by 2020 • Developed countries – cuts of 80 percent by 2050 • Developing countries – cuts of 20 percent by 2050 with respect to 1990

8. Halving emissions by 2050 could avoid dangerous climate change

9. Some people walk more lightly than others • The UK (population 60 million) emits more CO2 than Egypt, Nigeria, Pakistan and Vietnam (total population 472 million) • The state of Texas (population 23 million) has a deeper footprint than the whole sub-Saharan Africa (720 million people) • The 19 million people living in New York have a deeper footprint than the 766 million people living in the 50 least developed countries The distribution of current emissions points to an inverse relationship between climate change vulnerability and responsibility

10. GHG Emissions • The 21st century carbon budget amounts to 1,456 Gt or around 14.5 Gt CO2 per year • Total CO2 emissions in 2004 stood at 29 Gt • If every person living in the developing world would have the same carbon footprint than an average person in the US or Canada, we would need the equivalent to nine planets to absorb the CO2

11. Climate shocks: risk and vulnerability in an unequal world “The countries most vulnerable are least able to protect themselves. They also contribute least to the global emissions of greenhouse gases. Without action they will pay a high price for the actions of others.” Kofi Annan “Like slavery and apartheid, poverty is not natural. It is man-made and it can be overcome and eradicated by the actions of human beings.” Nelson Mandela

12. Disaster risk is skewed towards developing countries • 1 in 19 people are affected in developing countries • The corresponding number is 1 in 1,500 in OECD countries A risk differential of 79

13. The human development backdrop • Poverty, child mortality and malnutrition • There are still around 1 billion people living on less than a dollar a day. • Around 28 percent of children in LDCs are underweight or stunted. • Only 32 countries (of 147) are on track to achieve the MDG on child mortality • Inequality • More than 80 percent of the world’s population lives in countries where income differentials are widening • Underlying inequalities act as a barrier for early recovery after shocks

14. Five human development tipping points • Reduced agricultural productivity • Heightened water insecurity • Increased exposure to extreme weather events • Collapse of ecosystems • Increased health risks

15. Climate change will hurt developing country agriculture

16. Heightened water insecurity – glacial melting • Glacial melting posses threats to more than 40 percent of the world’s population. • In the arid cost of Peru, 80 percent of fresh water originates from glacial melt. • The flow of the Indus, could decline as much as 70 percent • In Central Asia, losses of glacial melt into Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers could restrict water for irrigation and hydroelectric power

17. Extreme weather events • The number of additional people experiencing coastal flooding could range from 134 to 332million for a 3o- 4o increase in temperature. • Tropical storms could raise the figure to 371million by the end of the 21st century • Possible consequences of one meter rise in sea level • In Lower Egypt, 6 million people displaced and 4,500 kms2 of farmland flooded • In Vietnam, 22 million people displaced • In Bangladesh, 18 percent of land area could be inundated affecting 11 percent of the population • In the Maldives, more than 80 percent of land area is less than 1 meter above sea level

18. Avoiding dangerous climate change: strategies for mitigation “We shall require a substantially new manner of thinking if mankind is to survive.” Albert Einstein “Speed is irrelevant if you are going in the wrong direction.” Mahatma Gandhi “Alone we can do so little; together we can do so much.” Helen Keller

19. Avoiding dangerous climate change – strategies for mitigation • Setting mitigation targets: current problems • Pricing carbon: the role of markets • The role of public policy: regulation and research & development

20. Pricing carbon emissions • Market failure: Polluters do not suffer the worse consequences of their own pollution • Immediate challenge: to push the price of carbon to a level consistent with the sustainable emissions pathway • Ways to do it: taxation and cap-and-trade and trade

21. The critical role of regulation andgovernment action • The energy mix • The residential sector • Vehicle emission standards • R&D and deployment of low carbon technologies

22. The Energy Mix • Currently energy mix is dominated by fossil fuels • Renewable energy is not competitive with coal-fired power – price of carbon and incentives for predicable markets can play a role • Germany’ Renewable Sources Act – fix price for 20 years • Spain – wind power satisfies around 8 percent of total electricity demand. In 2005 saved 19 million t CO2 emissions • Denmark – tax breaks on capital investments. In two decades wind has increased the share in electricity generation to 20 percent

23. Residential Sector • Low cost mitigation • In OECD residential accounts for 35-40 percent of national CO2 emissions • Appliances alone produce roughly 12 percent • Policies on building and appliances could save up to 29 percent emissions (3.9 Gt CO2) by 2020 equivalent to three times current emissions of India • Average European household could save 200 to 1000 Euros annually through energy efficiency • The best efficiency standards of electrical appliances could save 322 million t CO2 by 2010 equivalent to 100 million cars off the road (all cars from Canada, France and Germany)

24. Vehicle Emission Standards • Personal transportation is the largest consumer of oil • In OECD the automobile sector accounts for about 30 percent of total greenhouse gas emissions • Improvements in the United States regulatory standards would represent cuttings equivalent to France’s totalemissions

25. Adapting to the inevitable: national action and international cooperation “If you are neutral in a situation of injustice, you have chosen the side of the oppressor.” Archbishop Desmond Tutu “An injustice committed against anyone is a threat to everyone.” Montesquieu

26. Towards adaptation apartheid?Developed country investments dwarf adaptation funds • By mid-2007, actual multilateral financing delivered UNFCCC p US$ 26 billion • This is equivalent to one week spending in floods defences in the UK • Amounts are not the only problem. Timing and fulfillment of pledges present further limitations

27. Investing in adaptation up to 2015 Additional financing needs for climate proofing infrastructure and building resilience are estimated to be at least 86 billion by 2015 - Climate proofing infrastructure - Social protection - Strengthening disaster response

28. The Human Development Report concludes that: • The poor are suffering and will suffer more with climate change. They are at greatest risk to face human development reversals leading to low human development traps. • Climate change is an urgent matter. We need to act now. • Both mitigation and adaptation are needed to truly fight climate change and the threats it poses to humanity. • Rich countries must cut emissions by 30% by 2020 and 80% by 2050. • International cooperation on finance and technology transfer is needed. The report argues for the creation of a Climate Change Mitigation Facility. • Extreme inequalities in adaptation capacity exist. International cooperation has been slow to materialize. Adaptation plans needs need to be part of wider strategies of poverty alleviation.

29. Bali Conference on Climate Change • The 13th Conference of the Parties to UNFCCC and the 3rd Conference of Parties to Kyoto Protocol was held from 3 to 14 December 2007in Bali, Indonesia • The conference was attended by around 11,000 participants from 192 Parties and observer states and 413 UN Secretariat units and related bodies and specialized agencies, intergovernmental organizations and Non-governmental organizations. • Mr. Ban Ki-moon, UN Secretary-General and almost 10 heads of states and governments, more 130 environment ministers and vice-ministers participated and made political statements at the conference.

30. Bali Conference Decisions “The Bali Roadmap” • The first commitment period of obligations to reduce their greenhouse gases emissions received under the Kyoto protocol will be expired in 2012. • The conference agreed to launch “The Bali Roadmap” workplan. • “Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention” to conduct formal negotiations on strengthening international efforts to fight, mitigate and adapt to climate change was established. • Both the agenda for the negotiations and 2009 deadline for completing them. • New document will be submitted for its adoption to the COP15/CMP5 to be held in 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark.

31. Bali Conference Decisions “The Bali Roadmap” It was agreed to launch a comprehensive process to enable the effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action up to and beyond 2012. The legal framework should include the following main issues. These are: • Enhanced national and international action on mitigation of climate change • Enhanced action on adaptation • Enhanced action on technology development and transfer to support action on mitigation and adaptation, • Enhanced action on the provision of financial resources and investment to support action on mitigation and adaptation and technology cooperation.

32. Bali Conference Decisions Adaptation Fund • Governments decided to establish Adaptation Fund in accordance with the Kyoto Protocol. • The fund is filled by means of a 2% levy on CDM projects. In addition, developed countries will make their contributions to the fund. • developing country Parties to the Kyoto Protocol that are particularly • vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change are eligible for funding from the Adaptation Fund to assist them in meeting the costs of adaptation • Currently the fund is worth about 37 million euros. Considering the amount of CDM projects in pipeline, this figure will rapidly increase to an estimated 80-300 million USD in the period 2008-2012.

33. Bali Conference Decisions Adaptation Fund • Adaptation Fund Board was established to supervise and manage the Adaptation Fund, under the authority and guidance of the COP and CMP. The Global Environment Facility was invited to provide secretariat services to the Adaptation Fund Board on an interim basis. • Adaptation Fund Board shall comprise 16 members and 16 alternates representing Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. • Mongolia was elected in the Adaptation Fund Board as its alternate member.

34. The HDR 2007/2008 will be launched 27 November 2007 http://hdr.undp.org Thank you !