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Migration and Fuel Use in Rural Mexico

Migration and Fuel Use in Rural Mexico. Dale T. Manning UC-Davis. USAEE/IAEE North American Conference July 2013. Why care about fuel use?. Health Biomass fuel causes bronchitis and other lung diseases, heart disease, premature death—US EPA Environmental impacts

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Migration and Fuel Use in Rural Mexico

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  1. Migration and Fuel Use in Rural Mexico Dale T. Manning UC-Davis USAEE/IAEE North American Conference July 2013

  2. Why care about fuel use? • Health • Biomass fuel causes bronchitis and other lung diseases, heart disease, premature death—US EPA • Environmental impacts • Forest depletion, erosion, loss of habitat/biodiversity • National parks less effective if people depend park’s resources • Climate change • Wood: 0.39 kg CO2 per kWh • Coal: 0.37 kg CO2 per kWh • Kerosene: 0.26 kg CO2 per kWh • Quality of life • Time-consuming activity, TOC http://www.engineeringtoolbox.com/co2-emission-fuels-d_1085.html

  3. 2 theories of fuel choice • Fuel ladder • Fuel stacking

  4. Main contributions • Present theoretical model of fuel choice • Use model to show how migration changes fuel-choice incentives • Show empirical impact of out-migration on household fuel use

  5. Research question • How does rural out-migration affect fuel choice in rural Mexico? Important because rural-urban migration is a part of development process!

  6. Theoretical framework • Household producer • Home-cooked food • Agriculture • Given capital • Woodstove, gas stove • Chooses inputs • Labor/leisure • ENERGY SOURCE—Firewood or gas?

  7. Theoretical framework • Non-separable model • Imperfect labor markets • Non-marketed resource, home-cooked food • Household makes consumption and labor allocation decisions simultaneously • Energy inputs chosen to minimized cost of meeting energy needs required for optimized consumption • Cost of gas: market price • Cost of firewood: value of time

  8. Migration and labor allocation $ Lto Ag labor Firewood Collection

  9. Migration and labor allocation $ VMP in Ag (market price) VMP in resource collection (non-market) Lto Ag labor Firewood Collection

  10. Migration and labor allocation $ VMP in Ag (market price) VMP in resource collection (non-market) Lto Ag labor Firewood Collection

  11. Migration and labor allocation $ VMP in Ag (market price) VMP in resource collection (non-market) Lto Ag labor Firewood Collection

  12. Migration and labor allocation $ What happens when a migrant goes to the US? Lto Ag labor Firewood Collection

  13. Migration and labor allocation $ 1. Less total time available Ltm Ag labor Firewood Collection

  14. Migration and labor allocation $ 2. Demand for firewood can change Ltm Ag labor Firewood Collection

  15. Migration and labor allocation $ Theoretically ambiguous net impact (will likely decrease) Ltm Ag labor Firewood Collection

  16. Theoretically ambiguous • Investigate empirically • Rural Mexico • National Household Survey of Rural Mexico • Representative of ruralMexico • 80 communities, 14 states, 5 regions • 1543 households

  17. Rural Population of Mexico http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/rural-population-percent-of-total-population-wb-data.html 2010 rural population: 25,179,916

  18. As a percentage of total http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/rural-population-percent-of-total-population-wb-data.html

  19. Econometric estimation Natural log of days per year collecting firewood : Indigenous Education Year Household size Hh income Community wage =1 if household has member in US  IV with networks

  20. Econometric estimation Natural log yearly gas expenditure : Indigenous Education Year Household size Hh income Community wage =1 if household has member in US  IV with networks

  21. Results

  22. Results

  23. Results Without a migrant, spend about 3 times as many person-days per year collecting firewood! Average is ~121 days

  24. Results

  25. Results

  26. Results Approximately double gas expenditure!

  27. Results

  28. Results

  29. Results Increase probability of having a gas stove by ~33%! Impact on gas expenditure larger when controlling for selection (Heckman)

  30. Results

  31. Results

  32. Results summary • Households with US migrant spend less time collecting firewood • Spend more on gas • More likely to have a gas stove • But they don’t stop collecting firewood

  33. Implications for policy • Gas stove investment can be an obstacle • Households will use gas if it is cheaper • Can lower price of gas (e.g., improve delivery) • Increase perceived cost of firewood (health effects) • Increase opportunity cost of time • Households may add gas into fuel mix without switching completely • Beware of firewood markets • Especially if common-property resource • Conventional management may become easier

  34. Thanks!

  35. Background • Fuel use/firewood collection connected to other sectors • Agriculture • Labor market development • Proposed theories: • Fuel ladder • Fuel stacking

  36. Data • National Household Survey of Rural Mexico • PRECESAM, Rural Economies of the Americas and Pacific Rim (REAP) • 2002, 2007 • Representative of rural Mexico—populations from 500 to 2499 people • 80 communities, 14 states, 5 regions • 1543 households, 10 states in 2010

  37. Household economy

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