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Fall Technical Conference

Fall Technical Conference. October 17 2002. Robert Launsby. Co-author of three books on experimental design Co-developer of DOE Wisdom software Trained several thousand folks in industry on problem solving approaches Article “Straight Talk on DFSS”, SSFM 8/2002 www.launsby.com

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Fall Technical Conference

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  1. Fall Technical Conference October 17 2002

  2. Robert Launsby • Co-author of three books on experimental design • Co-developer of DOE Wisdom software • Trained several thousand folks in industry on problem solving approaches • Article “Straight Talk on DFSS”, SSFM 8/2002 • www.launsby.com • Download of examples using toys

  3. Agenda • Model for change • “Super Simulation” of air bag deployment system • Trebuchets, electromagnets, antacid pills, catapults

  4. Boston Survival Skills • Statement: Accents are wonderful, We all have them (we just don’t know it) • South Boston (Kennedy accent) • Car, Harvard, Chelmsford, Factor, Shark • Data, Pizza, Cuba, peninsula • “Park the car in Harvard yard” • Tuna, tuner

  5. Niccolo Machiavelli • “There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle than to initiate a new order of things. For the reformer has enemies in all those who profit by the old order, and only lukewarm defender by all those who could profit by the new order. This luke-warmness arises from the incredulity of mankind who do no truly believe in anything new until they have had actual experience with it.”

  6. Change • The application of simple statistical tools to day-to-day activities represents a huge change for many businesses

  7. Strategic Change Matrix Right Thing Wrong Thing Continue doing old right thing The world changes Done Well Deny new reality Stage 1 Stage 2 Done Poorly Folks need practice! Stage 3 Stage 4

  8. Getting Folks Out of Stage 2 Into Stage 3 • High contrast and confrontation • One approach • Air bag simulation using “Super Sim” • Student challenge (30 minutes) • Team exercise • Select best settings (25 trials max) • Define technology guide for each response

  9. Auto Air Bag System Gas weight Orifice diameter Four factors Type of charge, amount of charge

  10. Auto Air Bag System (cont.)

  11. Auto Air Bag System (cont.) Max Pressure delivered Time to 90 % max. Time to first pressure

  12. Auto Air Bag System (cont.) 8 9 10 110 120 130 Time to 90 % Max Pressure Goal: Nominal values for all three responses 2 3 Time to First Pressure

  13. Auto Air Bag System (cont.)

  14. Getting Folks Out of Stage 3 Into Stage 4 • Trebuchet • More complex DOE, PLS techniques • Electromagnets • DOE, ANOVA, regression • Antacid pills • Variance reduction, simple DOE • Catapults • Problem solving, control charts, MSA, simple DOE • M&M’s for attributes MSA, C-charts Tools are great for starters, but don’t forget real applications

  15. Trebuchet • Real Trebuchets were weapons of mass destruction in 12th century • Used in TV show “Northern Exposure” to launch piano • Today: Used to toss Yugo’s, pumpkins, etc, great amount of info on internet • Interesting challenge for getting students beyond simple Design of Experiments, PLS

  16. Possible Trebuchet Factors

  17. Trebuchet (cont.) Model looks good!

  18. Trebuchet (cont.) Prediction is 165 Actual value from trial was 194

  19. Trebuchet (cont.) • Eventually fit special cubic model to obtain useful predictions for flight distance with previous factor ranges • Note: you can download details from my website

  20. Electromagnets

  21. Electromagnets (cont.)

  22. Electromagnets (cont.)

  23. Antacid pills Factors: Water temp, amount of cola Response: Dissolve time Experiment demonstrates interaction, non-linearity, and variance reduction

  24. Antacid pills (cont.) Interaction tested to be significant

  25. Catapult • Possible factors: pull back angle, “pin on pole”, hook position, cup position, stop position, ball type, etc. • Possible responses: total distance, height, flight distance. • Positives: simple linear model provides useful predictions • Other uses: Control charts (older rubber band will demonstrate shift in mean), problem solving

  26. Catapult (cont.)

  27. Catapult (cont.)

  28. Catapult (cont.)

  29. Paper Helicopter • Numerous potential factors including • Wing length • Wing width • Number of weights • Type of weight • Paper weight • Body length

  30. Paper Helicopter

  31. Paper Helicopter

  32. M&M’s • Simple to use • Simple to define defect • Useful for attributes R&R study and C-charts • You can sample (eat) some of the product

  33. Summary • Please visit my website to download case studies and find listing of what is required for each experiment • www.launsby.com

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