Food and Feed production under the changing climate and the resulting research agenda in NARS

1. Food and Feed production under the changing climate and the resulting research agenda in NARS Girma Mamo (PhD), Senior Agro-meteorologist Biometrics, GIS and Agrometeorology Research Process, EIAR 28 January 2014 “Everybody talks about weather, but nobody does anything about it The time honoured quipof Charles Dudley Walker

2. Objectives of the presentation • To inform extent of integration of climate risk management research into NARS programs • Crops for food and feed production • To articulate existing and potential research agenda to sustain food and feed production, despite the changing climate

3. Presentation outline • Introduction • Why does the climate change • Understanding the national development plan of Ethiopia • Agriculture is the largest source of GHGs emission in Ethiopia • What agricultural research can help in this complex challenge? • Extent of mainstreaming CCA & mitigation issues into NARS • Complex challenges, but amenable to research • Understanding and modeling impacts of climate risks • Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Mitigation & climate smartness • Ongoing research topics (thematic areas) of interest • Potential topics for research interventions • Institutional challenges • Emerging opportunities, not only just a challenge

4. Why does the climate change?

5. Understanding the national development plan of Ethiopia • A number of major policies and programmers that target current vulnerability, and are already implementing (adaptation) options: • But are not fully resilient to future climate change and need to evolve to take longer-term climate change into account • On the whole, the policies appear progressive and offer much potential

6. Agriculture is the largest source of GHGs emission • Out of 150 million tons of CO2e GHGs emission >85% is from agriculture and forestry) • The current cattle population is more than 50 million and other livestock nearly 100 million. 65 Mt CO2e. • For soil based emission, potentially highest (~10 Mt CO2e) as well as by emitting N2O from crop residues reintroduced into the ground (~3 Mt CO2e per hectare). • Swathes of deforestation: 55 Mt CO2e i • Provocative question But why Ethiopian economic development trajectory clings to agriculture, which is highly sensitive to climate risks?

7. What agricultural research can help in this complex challenge? • NARS is tracking the higher level development pathways set by the government, to address these complex challenges and capture emerging opportunities • Generation of scientific evidence on triple win strategies [strategies that increase resilience (adaptation), reduce emission or enhance sequestration and at the same time do not compromise productivity enhancement plans of the country]

8. Cont’d • Translating strategic GTP objectives into green, climate resilient, ultimately outlining concert research questions and objectives • NARS is tracking the higher level development pathways set by the government, to address these complex challenges and capture emerging opportunities • Generation of scientific evidence on triple win strategies [strategies that increase resilience (adaptation), reduce emission or enhance sequestration and at the same time do not compromise productivity enhancement plans of the country]

9. Extent of mainstreaming climate change adaptation and mitigation issues into NARS programs • National Agricultural Research System (NARS) evolved through several stages since its 1st initiation during late 1940s. • The establishment of the then Institute of Agricultural Research (IAR) in 1966 saw the first nationally coordinated research system • Federal system i.e NARS EIAR+ RARIs + HLIs • EIAR countrywide coordination of agricultural research  conduct research on constraints of nationwide importance • RARIs focus on their own region specific constraints • NARS-- 69 research centers across various agro-ecological zones • Variation in experience, human and facility.

10. Staff numeracy and literacy working for Biometrics, GIS and Agro-meteorology of NARS, relative to ECA countries

11. Complex challenges, but amenable to research in the face of ensuring food and feed production under the changing climate Social Rising Popn Growth Deepening poverty Scarcity of land Non-climatic (land use change) Inability to invest for productivity/ profitability Deforestation, Farming on steep slopes (soil erosion) Poverty Poor health, malnutrition Increased GHGs Emission (CO2 at large) Economic Low ecological/ System Productivity Global warming Climate Change Climatic

12. Understanding and modeling impacts of climate risks on Ethiopian agriculture

13. Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Mitigation and Climate Smartness • Adaptation Increasing the society’s adaptive capacity, against the highly likely impacts of the climate on economy wide sectors • Mitigation  Directing efforts towards reducing the emission of GHGs, from the agriculture oriented development perspectives, it means reducing impacts of bad practices on climate change through alternatives • Increasing carbon sequestration in the soil (the second largest pool of carbon, next to ocean)

14. Three globally response strategies: Adaptation, Mitigation and climate smartness …Contn’d • Climate smart agriculture The process by which communities reduce the adverse impacts of shocks and stresses on their livelihoods and well-being, and also take a stock of advantages from the new opportunities provided by the changing enviroment (successful, appropriate and sustanable)

15. Impact pathways we follow in climate research across programs in NARS • Assessing agricultural vulnerability/resilience to climate change in regional contexts (assessments, multi-scale models, place-based analysis with stakeholders) (society, environment, economy) • Downscaling General Circulation Model (GCMs) outputs to target localities • Impact analyses of climate on • Crops (grain +feed) • Searching for alternate adaptation strategies and building on home grown (indigenous) strategies • Technology verification and release • Communication Technology pre-scaling up

18. Potential topics for research interventions • Aggregating emissions throughout the livestock commodity chain - from feed production ranging from chemical fertilizer production, deforestation for pasture and feed crops, and pasture degradation), through animal production including enteric fermentation and N2O emissions from manure) to the CO2 emitted during processing and transportation of animal products

19. Potential topics for research interventions.... • Extension and participatory research for engaging farmers and other stakeholders in building capacity for climate change and agriculture; Examples of linking farmers to climate information to improve agroecosystem management/food systems • improved animal nutrition and manure management to cut methane and nitrogen emissions • The future of the livestock-environment interface could be shaped by how we resolve the balance of two demands • i.e animal food products+ environmental services • Livestock production also impacts heavily water supply, mainly for the irrigation of feed crops.

20. Potential topics for research interventions.... • Livestock accounts for nine percent of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, most of it due to expansion of pastures and arable land for feed crops. • Livestock generates even bigger shares of emissions of other gases with greater potential to warm the atmosphere: as much as 37 percent of anthropogenic methane, • mostly from enteric fermentation by ruminants, and 65 • percent of anthropogenic N2O, mostly from manure.

21. Institutional challenges

22. Institutional challenges

23. Emerging opportunities, just not only a challenge • We believe time is for inter-institutional collaboration • The climate science is advancing at a significant rate • Ethiopian government is committed to build an adaptive capacity of the society to the pressure of climate risks  Climate resilient Green Economy initiative (CRGE). • Compelling reasons to expand government funded research projects to include adaptation-mitigation • Institutions; like EIAR are building the capacity in climate research. • Climate money is hovering in the air any one with good idea has an opportunity to access. • Time is right and ripe to confront climate change and that, international donors are demonstrating great interest.

24. Who are beside us in the move? CGIAR Centers collaborating with NARS • ICARDA • ILRI • IFPRI • ICRISAT • CIMMYT • IITA • IRRI • CIP • CIAT • IWMI • NRVDC • IPGRI • ARC • ICRAF

25. Pleasure to have your attention!